ABC: 'Scandal' Starts As A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation; 'GCB' Now a "Toss Up" Too

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 10th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 8, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Body Of Proof :oops: 0.64
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
Missing :cry: :cry: 0.68
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
GCB :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.92
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 1.00
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Desperate Housewives final season 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

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Scandal's premiere episode ratings placed it squarely in the "toss up" for renewal or cancellation category, but intial predictions can change quickly based on later results. Stay tuned.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • MJDB

    Shows I have regularly watched this season on ABC:

    Last Man Standing
    Once Upon a Time

  • Lizam

    BODY OF PROOF – 4
    COUGAR TOWN – 7 (-2)
    GCB- 11 (-3)
    CASTLE- 13
    REVENGE – 27
    SUBURGATORY – 14 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 16 (+2)
    THE MIDDLE – 11
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19 (+1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 26
    APT 23 – 19 (+3)

  • Jason

    BODY OF PROOF – 16 (+3)
    COUGAR TOWN – 8
    THE RIVER – 10 (+3)
    MISSING – 9
    SCANDAL – 8
    GCB – 10
    CASTLE – 7
    LAST MAN STANDING – 10
    PRIVATE PRACTICE – 7
    REVENGE – 11 (-3)
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    HAPPY ENDINGS – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 12
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    GREY’S ANATOMY – 7 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 4 (-3)
    APARTMENT 23 – 10

  • tvfreak

    Disregard @Jason’s vote; he put in shows that have already been eliminated. Use @Lizam’s numbers below:

    BODY OF PROOF – 4
    COUGAR TOWN – 7 (-2)
    GCB- 11 (-3)
    CASTLE- 13
    REVENGE – 27
    SUBURGATORY – 14 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 16 (+2)
    THE MIDDLE – 11
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19 (+1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 26
    APARTMENT 23 – 19 (+3)

  • tvfreak

    BODY OF PROOF – 4
    COUGAR TOWN – 7
    GCB – 9 (-2)
    CASTLE – 16 (+3)
    REVENGE – 24 (-3)
    SUBURGATORY – 13 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 16
    THE MIDDLE – 13 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 26
    APARTMENT 23 – 20 (+1)

    Eliminated:

    18. The River (4-11, 8:28pm)
    17. Private Practice (4-11, 8:28pm)
    16. Grey’s Anatomy (4-12, 9:31am)
    15. Last Man Standing (4-12, 9:31am)
    14. Scandal (4-13, 5:47am)
    13. Missing (4-13, 5:47am)
    12. Happy Endings (4-13, 9:14am)

    “You don’t know?! Okay…that thing in the woods? Maybe it’s a monster. Maybe it’s a…pissed off giraffe, I don’t know. The fact that no one is even looking for us? Yeah, that’s weird. But I just go along with it, ’cause I’m along for the ride. Good old fun-time Hurley. Well, guess what? Now – I want some friggin’ answers!”
    -Hurley, from Lost episode 1.18 “Numbers”

  • james

    BODY OF PROOF – 1 (-3)
    COUGAR TOWN – 5 (-2)
    GCB – 12 (+3)
    CASTLE – 16
    REVENGE – 23 (-1)
    SUBURGATORY – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 16
    THE MIDDLE – 13
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 27 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 22 (+2)

  • Jessica

    BODY OF PROOF – 0 (-1) Eliminated!
    COUGAR TOWN – 2 (-3)
    GCB – 15 (+3)
    CASTLE – 16
    REVENGE – 25 (+2)
    SUBURGATORY – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 16
    THE MIDDLE – 11 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 27
    APARTMENT 23 – 23 (+1)

  • Nick

    COUGAR TOWN – 5 (+3)
    GCB – 13 (-2)
    CASTLE – 16
    REVENGE – 24 (-1)
    SUBURGATORY – 14 (+1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 16
    THE MIDDLE – 13 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 27
    APARTMENT 23 – 20 (-3)

    Sad I couldn’t save BOP :-(

    “That’s not her drunk voice”
    -Various people, Modern Family episode “Election Day”

  • Tony

    @Ginger

    I like your schedule overall, I would switch a few things though, but overall I think that’s a pretty decent schedule.

    I definitely agree that Dancing with the Stars should go to one cycle at least for next season and if they really need it back to 2 cycles a year then switch it back the following fall, but with DWTS on a one cycle per season schedule this could help ABC in the drama department. They could renew GCB and Scandal and see if they can continue to grow given fall premiere dates with out losing slots for new dramas.

    I like the idea of DWTS starting in January and end I think in March? then finish the runs of the dramas that started in the fall both with straight through runs with no repeats. One thing though is that is it possible for Dancing with the Stars to start in January. Typically ABC starts their new shows VERY early in January and if they did that with ABC I don’t know how the holidays and new years eve would affect the dancers’ practices before the start of the season.

    But honestly I really think ABC needs to try something REALLY risky and ballsy and if they do I think it would work out great for them, much like Wednesdays and their 2 hour comedy block, their Wednesdays struggled for years and then one season they gained 1 huge comedy anchor and 2 minor anchors, and then the next season they got one of the minor anchors upgraded to major anchor (the middle) and the following season finally got a hit drama in the Wednesdays at 10 pm slot in years of failing shows. and now they are very competitive on Wednesdays. Come on ABC make your fall schedule RISKY and INTERSTING!!

  • Bek

    COUGAR TOWN – 22 (-3)
    GCB – 16 (+3)
    CASTLE – 14 (-2)
    REVENGE – 24
    SUBURGATORY – 14
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15 (-1)
    THE MIDDLE – 15 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 27
    APARTMENT 23 – 21 (+1)

  • Doug

    @Tony: I agree. ABC has a plethora of comedies – I think it’s becoming pretty clear they would like to open up another full night, and Tuesday is the best bet with no other comedy competition by Fox, which isn’t doing huge numbers anyway. I’m sure they could work out DWTS. Perhaps do the season premiere around January 15th. It only runs for two and a half months anyway, which would free-up Mondays around the beginning of April.

    It that stops the slide for DWTS, and they average a 2.5 with dramas on Monday, it’s a win. Tuesday would be far easier to top, considering how weak the results show now is. They could even move Castle up to 9pm.

  • Bright

    Disregard @Bek’s numbers, he cheated on Cougar Town. those are mines following @Nick:

    COUGAR TOWN – 8 (+3)
    GCB – 13
    CASTLE – 13 (-3)
    REVENGE – 23 (-1)
    SUBURGATORY – 14
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 17 (+1)
    THE MIDDLE – 15 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 25 (-2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 20

  • Charmed

    COUGAR TOWN – 5(-3)
    GCB – 13
    CASTLE – 11(-2)
    REVENGE – 24(+1)
    SUBURGATORY – 13(-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 19(+2)
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 22(+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 25
    APARTMENT 23 – 20

  • Bek

    I added an extra 2 by accident on cougar town jesus
    By the way i am a woman not a man.
    COUGAR TOWN – 2 (-3)
    GCB – 16 (+3)
    CASTLE – 9 (-2)
    REVENGE – 24
    SUBURGATORY – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 18(-1)
    THE MIDDLE – 17 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 22
    MODERN FAMILY – 25
    APARTMENT 23 – 21 (+1)

  • Rebecca

    @Bek
    Technically you would not be able to vote again just yet since it has not been 24 hours, but since your earlier vote was disregarded it’s okay. It’s easy to make mistakes with the new game – just be careful and double-check the #s before posting. Going now off Bek’s 7:58 PST vote:

    COUGAR TOWN – 5 (+3)
    GCB – 17 (+1)
    CASTLE – 11 (+2)
    REVENGE – 24
    SUBURGATORY – 12 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 17
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 22
    MODERN FAMILY – 25
    APARTMENT 23 – 19 (-2)

    quote from CT [1.11]:
    Laurie: I can’t go to some political thing at a country club. I don’t know how to act.
    Grayson: Aw, it’s just like “Pretty Woman.”
    Laurie: Actually, it’s more like “Mystic Pizza,” but either way I get to be Julia Roberts, so bite me.

  • John

    COUGAR TOWN – 8 (+3)
    GCB – 17
    CASTLE – 12 (+1)
    REVENGE – 24
    SUBURGATORY – 11 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15
    THE MIDDLE – 14 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 20 (-2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 27 (+2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 19

  • Bright

    I’m sorry @Bek but you know, one never knows if it’s a mistake or on purpose. And since it’s not the first time that someone tries to cheat, that’s what I though. Be carefull next time ;)
    and sorry for the gender mistake as well

  • MoHasanie

    COUGAR TOWN – 7 (-1)
    GCB – 15 (-3)
    CASTLE – 12
    REVENGE – 26 (+2)
    SUBURGATORY – 11
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 18 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 14 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 20
    MODERN FAMILY – 28 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 16 (-2)

  • MoHasanie

    *Oops, I don’t want to subtract 3 from The Middle, that was a typo. The score though remains 14 for it.

  • Nevid

    COUGAR TOWN – 6 (-1)
    GCB – 13 (-2)
    CASTLE – 13 (+1)
    REVENGE – 29 (+3)
    SUBURGATORY – 13 (+2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 18
    THE MIDDLE – 11 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 20
    MODERN FAMILY – 28
    APARTMENT 23 – 16

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