ABC: 'Scandal' Starts As A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation; 'GCB' Now a "Toss Up" Too

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 10th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 8, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Body Of Proof :oops: 0.64
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
Missing :cry: :cry: 0.68
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
GCB :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.92
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 1.00
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Desperate Housewives final season 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

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Scandal's premiere episode ratings placed it squarely in the "toss up" for renewal or cancellation category, but intial predictions can change quickly based on later results. Stay tuned.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Bran

    COUGAR TOWN – 4 (-2)
    GCB – 16 (+3)
    CASTLE – 13
    REVENGE – 26 (-3)
    SUBURGATORY – 13
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 18
    THE MIDDLE – 11
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19 (-1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 29 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 18 (+2)

  • rob60990

    COUGAR TOWN – 1 (-3)
    GCB – 16
    CASTLE – 11 (-2)
    REVENGE – 27 (+1)
    SUBURGATORY – 12 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 20 (+2)
    THE MIDDLE – 14 (+3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 29
    APARTMENT 23 – 18

  • Concerned Citizen

    COUGAR TOWN – 4 (+3)
    GCB – 13 (-3)
    CASTLE – 12 (+1)
    REVENGE – 26 (-1)
    SUBURGATORY – 12
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 18 (-2)
    THE MIDDLE – 14
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 29
    APARTMENT 23 – 20 (+2)

  • tvfreak

    COUGAR TOWN – 4
    GCB – 11 (-2)
    CASTLE – 15 (+3)
    REVENGE – 23 (-3)
    SUBURGATORY – 11 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 18
    THE MIDDLE – 16 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 29
    APARTMENT 23 – 21 (+1)

    Eliminated:

    18. The River (4-11, 8:28pm)
    17. Private Practice (4-11, 8:28pm)
    16. Grey’s Anatomy (4-12, 9:31am)
    15. Last Man Standing (4-12, 9:31am)
    14. Scandal (4-13, 5:47am)
    13. Missing (4-13, 5:47am)
    12. Happy Endings (4-13, 9:14am)
    11. Body Of Proof (4-14, 6:52pm)

    “The only thing to talk about is that my husband is willing to kill me for whatever is in that box.”
    -Becca Winstone, from Missing episode 1.05 “The Three Bears”

  • Mari

    COUGAR TOWN – 6 (+2)
    GCB – 8 (-3)
    CASTLE – 18 (+3)
    REVENGE – 22(-1)
    SUBURGATORY – 12 (+1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 18
    THE MIDDLE – 16
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 29
    APARTMENT 23 – 19 (-2)

  • James

    COUGAR TOWN – 3 (-3)
    GCB – 11 (+3)
    CASTLE – 16 (-2)
    REVENGE – 23 (+1)
    SUBURGATORY – 11 (-1)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 18
    THE MIDDLE – 16
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 29
    APARTMENT 23 – 21 (+2)

  • pat543

    This is my first time so sorry if it is wrong
    COUGAR TOWN – 0 (-3)
    GCB – 14 (+3)
    CASTLE – 16
    REVENGE – 21 (-2)
    SUBURGATORY – 13 (+2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 18
    THE MIDDLE – 16
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 30 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 20 (-1)

  • Rebecca

    Cougar Town is now eliminated. Nuts! lol

  • Tony

    I watched the second episode of Scandal last night and wow! what a great show and I think it will only get better from here on out. ABC better renew this and give it a fall launch for its second season because it is gonna break out soon. Come on ABC give it time to grow because the WOM right now is that it is HOT! and they are right. It’s a HOT show right now! Kerry Washington is amazing. Give her an Emmy! please!

  • Amara

    GCB – 11 (-3)
    CASTLE – 19 (+3)
    REVENGE – 21 (-1)
    SUBURGATORY – 11 (-2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 19 (+1)
    THE MIDDLE – 16
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 30
    APARTMENT 23 – 22 (+2)

  • K-Fed

    GCB – 8 (-3)
    CASTLE – 17 (-2)
    REVENGE – 24 (+3)
    SUBURGATORY – 13 (+2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 20 (+1)
    THE MIDDLE – 15 (-1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 30
    APARTMENT 23 – 22

  • Brittany

    GCB – 11 (+3)
    CASTLE – 15 (-2)
    REVENGE – 24
    SUBURGATORY – 10 (-3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 19 (-1)
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 31 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 24 (+2)
    Tonights GCB was so funny

  • Jodie

    @Brittany Gcb was really good this week but nowhere near as funny as last weeks

    GCB – 14 (+3)
    CASTLE – 15
    REVENGE – 24
    SUBURGATORY – 7 (-3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 20 (+1)
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 18 (-1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 29 (-2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 26 (+2)

  • Nevid

    GCB – 12 (-2)
    CASTLE – 16 (+1)
    REVENGE – 26 (+2)
    SUBURGATORY – 10 (+3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 19 (-1)
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 15 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 29
    APARTMENT 23 – 26

  • gregg

    i hope GCB gets renewed. this show is freaking great.

  • Rebecca

    @Nevid
    I’m sorry but you can’t vote again yet. There must be at least 24 hours between your votes, and you voted yesterday around 1:40ish Pacific time. The next person to vote, please go off the vote prior which was Jodie’s. Easiest way to remember when to vote again (besides checking the posts to see if it’s your time yet) is to jot down the time you voted on a paper and keep it near the computer. If your vote time changes because you voted late, just cross out the old time and jot down the new time.

  • Rebecca

    new vote

    GCB – 16 (+2)
    CASTLE – 18 (+3)
    REVENGE – 22 (-2)
    SUBURGATORY – 4 (-3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 20
    THE MIDDLE – 15
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19 (+1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 29
    APARTMENT 23 – 25 (-1)

    quote from CT [1.10]:
    Jules: You know, Laurie, one of the things I’ve learned as an award winning real estate agent…
    Laurie: Are you talking about that Green Business certificate we got for changing our light bulbs?
    Jules: It’s an award.

  • Bright

    @Rebecca, I really like you. I’m glad to participate in the comments here with you :D

  • Bright

    Mi last time voting was (April 15, 2012 at 6:41 AM), but I have to add 9 hours for knowing my local hour here. I think I’m done with the 24 hours so I’m gonna vote again, please correct me if I’m wrong:

    GCB – 18 (+2)
    CASTLE – 15 (-3)
    REVENGE – 22
    SUBURGATORY – 7 (+3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 20
    THE MIDDLE – 16 (+1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 27 (-2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 24 (-1)

  • Anne

    GCB – 21(+3)
    CASTLE – 15
    REVENGE – 23 (+1)
    SUBURGATORY – 4 (-3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 19 (-1)
    THE MIDDLE – 16
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19
    MODERN FAMILY – 25 (-2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 26 (+2)

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