ABC: 'Scandal' Starts As A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation; 'GCB' Now a "Toss Up" Too

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 10th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 8, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Body Of Proof :oops: 0.64
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
Missing :cry: :cry: 0.68
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
GCB :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.92
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 1.00
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Desperate Housewives final season 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

Scandal's premiere episode ratings placed it squarely in the "toss up" for renewal or cancellation category, but intial predictions can change quickly based on later results. Stay tuned.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.


  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

  • Lizam

    GCB – 18(-3)
    CASTLE – 15
    REVENGE – 24 (+1)
    SUBURGATORY – 2 (-2)
    THE MIDDLE – 15 (-1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 21 (+2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 29 (+3)

  • Tony

    not to be mean, a debbie downer, rude, or offensive, but these games are honestly starting to get on my nerves. I don’t even want to come here anymore. No one is talking about the shows anymore because the people who actually wanted to talk about the shows have all left.

    I’m sorry but seriously. Robert, Bill can you create a separate area for these games or make them stop all together. It’s ruining this website for the worse

  • tvfreak

    GCB – 17 (-1)
    CASTLE – 18 (+3)
    REVENGE – 21 (-3)
    SUBURGATORY – 0 (-2) Good-bye, and good riddance!
    THE MIDDLE – 17 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 26 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 29


    18. The River (4-11, 8:28pm)
    17. Private Practice (4-11, 8:28pm)
    16. Grey’s Anatomy (4-12, 9:31am)
    15. Last Man Standing (4-12, 9:31am)
    14. Scandal (4-13, 5:47am)
    13. Missing (4-13, 5:47am)
    12. Happy Endings (4-13, 9:14am)
    11. Body Of Proof (4-14, 6:52pm)
    10. Cougar Town (4-15, 4:31pm)
    9. Suburgatory (4-16, 3:43pm)

    “It’s not your fault, honey, mother is part of the word. You ever hear of anyone being sfathered to death?”
    -Phil Dunphy, from Modern Family episode 1.18 “Starry Night”

  • Bran

    GCB – 20 (+3)
    CASTLE – 18
    REVENGE – 21
    THE MIDDLE – 14 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 20 (-1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 27 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 31 (+2)

  • Rebecca

    Why, thank you! I like you, too – we’re both HE fans, right? ;-)

  • Revenge

    GCB – 22 (+2)
    CASTLE – 18
    REVENGE – 24 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 14
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 18 (-2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 24 (-3)
    APARTMENT 23 – 30 (-1)

  • James

    GCB – 25 (+3)
    CASTLE – 16 (-2)
    REVENGE – 21 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 14
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19 (+1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 23 (-1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 32 (+2)

  • Grey.

    GCB – 22
    CASTLE – 16 (-2)
    REVENGE – 27 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 14
    MODERN FAMILY – 21 (-3)
    APARTMENT 23 – 29 (-1)

    I didnt use my (+2),(+1)..

  • Mari

    GCB – 19 (-3)
    CASTLE – 21 (+3)
    REVENGE – 24
    THE MIDDLE – 13 (-1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 19 (+1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 26 (+2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 30

  • Nick

    GCB – 17 (-2)
    CASTLE – 21
    REVENGE – 23 (-1)
    THE MIDDLE – 16 (+3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 21 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 27 (+1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 27 (-3)

    “I’m your son. Do you have juice?”
    -Henry, OUAT episode 1.01 “Pilot”

    How does Apt. 23, a sitcom that’s aired only 1episode, get the same score as Modern Family?

  • Nick

    @Tony, Bill and Robert have no control over the Elimination Game. Besides, if you don’t like the commenters on this site, go find another one.

  • Rebecca

    I don’t know but I hope MF rises above it eventually. I’ve seen two eps of Apt 23 (online) and they’re good, sure, but it’s not a “proven” comedy yet like MF.

    Sorry, but you have to do all six votes in order for your vote to count. Can’t leave off the +2 and +1 when you’ve done the other four votes. So, to discount that vote this round and fix the totals from votes that happened since (and from mistakes made around that time) here are the new totals:

    GCB – 20
    CASTLE – 19
    REVENGE – 22
    THE MIDDLE – 16
    APARTMENT 23 – 29

  • Bran

    Cross votes fixed between james mari and nick without grey because he didnt complete the whole game.
    GCB – 20
    CASTLE – 19
    REVENGE – 22
    THE MIDDLE – 16
    APARTMENT 23 – 28

  • Bran

    nvm use Rebecca’s i included grey for some

    @rebecca you rock at this

  • Rebecca

    It’s not that they have no control over the game. They allow it. It at least adds page views for them. We do still discuss the shows here on these r/c index threads; we just have to look for the comments and click on other pages when necessary, that’s all. I’m more for playing the game in the final months of the season, though, and not the whole season long. It’s better in April and May, when we all know what shows we’ve liked or disliked from the season. I don’t know if I could come up with enough good show quotes if I played all season long! lol

  • Rebecca

    Thanks…it’s complicated, I’m not used to doing this much math all the time, lol. I just like the totals to be correct before I vote or it louses up my vote time. ;-)

  • Jelly

    GCB – 21 (+1)
    CASTLE – 19
    REVENGE – 25 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 16
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 21 (-1)
    MODERN FAMILY – 21 (-2)
    APARTMENT 23 – 25 (-3)

  • Bright

    yes @rebecca we do love HE of course! :D
    I find it so funny and refreshing, and reminds me some of my crazy friends’ ideas. In the other hand I see you love Castle as well but I don’t find it’s point. I don’t like it.
    My favourite show has always been DH, I’m very sad it got canceled, I always had this feeling it would last to season 9. (the same happened to me last season with B&S, I loved it)
    This year I loved Revenge (but I confess more at it’s beginning), and Pan Am (which I am really sad it’s not going to be renewed, it had such a potential).
    OUAT I find it newly, and very family-friendly although I usually get a little bored of it.
    What I am really surprised this season is about Scandal and GCB. I didn’t like their premises so much at first, but I found Scandal very good and interesting actually. And with GCB, I’m having actual LOL. It’s been a while since a show made me laugh so much. Kristin Chenoweth is amazing.
    On the comedy side, MF, CT and TM are my basics, and I’m enjoying at the same level Suburgatory and Apt. 23.
    LMS I watch it but it’s none of my favourites, and I think Work It and Man Up were really stupid.
    I like BoP and Dana but sadly it’s mostly a gooner. It’s quite and entertaining show with no high aspirations, and I find it nice.
    what about you? ;)

  • Bright

    well, apart from kristin, the actress who plays Cricket at GCB (who I didn’t know before) is HILARIOUS, can’t stop laughing with her and her face expressions :D

  • Rebecca

    Well, you know I like Castle – I had started watching in its first season but then stopped, since I’m not really into crime shows with bloody murder scenes. But later when I saw it was successful (and I was happy for Nathan Fillion, of whom I’m a fan) I went back to watching it (caught up on what I had missed via dvd rentals) and still watch it now. I’m being patient and waiting for the real love story to happen with Beckett and Castle (it should happen soon). I really like GCB…didn’t think I would like it as much as I do. I agree about the actress who plays Cricket – I think she’s my favorite on the show. Her comic timing and the way she delivers her lines are fantastic. I remember the actress who plays Sharon (Jennifer Aspen) from the wife role on Rodney (a show I liked a while back, and she was on Glee for just a little while as the teacher’s wife’s sister), and she’s good, as is Annie Potts. The whole show is cast well – the guys are great, too. I never watched JAG, but David James Elliott is great as Chenoweth’s husband. He has cracked me up a few times. I don’t watch many dramas, and the ones I do watch now at least have some comedy in them. Haven’t tried Scandal or Missing, and most likely won’t. I have now seen a few episodes of Revenge, and it’s good but I doubt I’ll have time to keep catching up in time to watch it “live.” Maybe over the summer. I don’t watch many shows after 9 pm Mtn time other than Castle, Smash, and Ringer (I have two CW channels and one of them shows Ringer an hour later than its usual scheduled time on the other channel). Those last two shows aren’t on ABC, though, so I’ll stick with ABC here: I enjoy LMS as light family comedy but wouldn’t miss it if it got canceled. I LOVE Cougar Town, always have (and have been re-watching season one on DVD but now I’m up to its season finale so I’ll start watching season two again soon, also on DVD. Courteney’s character has grown on me but I didn’t really like her in the beginning – “Jules” seems to try too hard, overacting. Now I don’t notice it as much, or she got better – it’s more of a fun ensemble comedy for me now. Everyone else is more enjoyable.). The Middle, Modern Family, Happy Endings, Apt 23 (I won’t call it its full title) are all on my must see list and I never miss them. Not every episode of every show is excellent, but the least disappointing for me has been The Middle – in this household we’ve been pleased with every episode thus far (on those Wed nights, Hubby watches The Middle and MF with me…everything else I see on my own). On Sundays we watch AFV as a family, and I watch OUAT (I won’t let my kiddo watch it yet) – my fave new show of the season on any network. I haven’t watched DH in over a year. I think the last time I watched, Susan was still doing soft porn “maid” online videos. Up until that point I had mostly enjoyed the show (her scenes weren’t why I stopped watching – there were other reasons I just didn’t want to stick with it, although I often got a kick out of Lynette and Gabriela. They were the comedy in the show, to me.), but I gave it up and don’t miss it even though people here have said this is the show’s best season (nice to end on a high note, if that’s the case). Those are all the shows I watch on ABC. I did watch Man Up and liked parts of it (yeah, it was stupid – but I liked it more than certain other comedies I won’t name from other networks, lol), but I don’t miss it. It’s not a show I’d fight for (as if I could). I’m not into Suburgatory (have tried it, just don’t like it much except for Cheryl Hines), so we use that half hour it’s on to start watching The Middle mid-recording (or after it’s recorded) and then skip through Suburgatory to get to the recording of MF. It’s just easier to record all of ABC at once, with the digital tuner and separate DVR machine (not built into the cable). I often save HE to watch the next day when I’m more alert and can catch everything. It’ll be the same way now with Apt 23 – I’ll just see it online the next day. My online viewing doesn’t hurt anyone since I’m not with Nielsen.

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