ABC: 'Scandal' Starts As A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation; 'GCB' Now a "Toss Up" Too

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 10th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 8, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Body Of Proof :oops: 0.64
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
Missing :cry: :cry: 0.68
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
GCB :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.92
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.94
Revenge :) :) :) :) 1.00
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Desperate Housewives final season 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

-
Scandal's premiere episode ratings placed it squarely in the "toss up" for renewal or cancellation category, but intial predictions can change quickly based on later results. Stay tuned.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Rebecca

    ^Sorry that was so long, lol. Didn’t look that long when I was typing it.

  • Bright

    Don’t worry that was terrific :) I enjoyed every line, thank you for sharing. We share some tastes on tv show, glad to know. The Middle as you say, it’s fantastic, so funny. Even more than MF sometimes!
    Also as you I watch Smash and Ringer. The production of Smash is absolutely stunning, can’t understand why more people isn’t watching it, although musicals aren’t really my thing.
    From other networks (sorry that write it here on ABC’s wall) I enjoy Nikita, Up All Night, Parenthood, New Girl, Bob’s Burgers, Fringe, Unforgettable and Mike & Molly (and some cable as well) but my favourite network has always been ABC. Always. The greatest shows in my memory (I was born in 1986).
    I encourage you to try on Scandal, if you let me. It is really nice, surprinsingly powerfull and strong.
    (sorry if I do mistakes in English :D)

  • K

    GCB – 21
    CASTLE – 22 (+3)
    REVENGE – 23 (-2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 19 (+1)
    THE MIDDLE – 16
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 23 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 20 (-1)
    APARTMENT 23 – 22 (-3)

  • Rebecca

    @Bright
    We’ll have a new r/c index thread for each network some time today, but I’ll answer here in case you see it (it’s easily findable if it “disappears” from the home page later). I don’t have cable but I see some of the shows via Netflix. The other shows I watch (since you mentioned non-ABC shows, I’ll mention mine) are: HIMYM, Alcatraz, Glee, Smash, Ringer (I fully expect it to end tonight – for me it’s good fun but maybe not for more than one season), New Girl, RH, TBBT, 30R, P&R, RoE, The Office (but I’d like it to end soon), Touch, UAN (okay with that one ending soon if necessary), Grimm, The Marriage Ref (summers), Bent, BFF, Community, and when I have time Whitney, Rob, Breaking In and IHMTD. Catching up on SPN through Netflix but I’m near the end of season 2 now – might get caught up completely by the fall but not sure. More than a few of these above shows will most likely be canceled if they aren’t already. That’s okay; there are always other shows to take their place. Are you in a country other than the U.S.? (Oh, and I was born in 1970.)

  • MoHasanie

    GCB – 21
    CASTLE – 22
    REVENGE – 25 (+2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 22 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 17 (+1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 23
    MODERN FAMILY – 20
    APARTMENT 23 – 22

  • Rebecca

    Going off @K’s vote since @MoHasanie didn’t do all six votes (sorry, but you can’t add points without also taking away points). That vote is disqualified this round.

    GCB – 21
    CASTLE – 25 (+3)
    REVENGE – 21 (-2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 18 (-1)
    THE MIDDLE – 17 (+1)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 25 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 20
    APARTMENT 23 – 19 (-3)

    quote from CT [1.22]:
    Jules: What’s in your briefcase?
    Ellie: Almonds and wine.
    Jules: No way, that’s exactly what’s in my briefcase!

  • Bright

    Yes that’s true! We’ll have a new r/c index later today. Are we gonna continue the game there or just start a new one? It’s the first time I play.
    I’m from Spain actually, but I enjoy American tv more. I usually catch up on the internet, or here in tv channels, although sometimes it’s difficult because they don’t air every show, mostly they do it late (like weeks or months later), and they do it dubbed, so not good for me. I need subtitles to understand everything but I prefer the original voices.
    So I mostly catch up on the internet. I don’t have cable either but I do the same with those shows. It happens that I’m a nielsen family here so then when they air whatever show later on the season I try to be honest and watch it again or just turn on the tv

  • tvfreak

    @Bright: The new Index is up, so voting on this thread is now closed. What we do is we wait until a full page of comments is complete on the new thread, then move the game there.

  • Rebecca

    Yep, the elimination game has carried over to page 2 of the new ABC r/c index thread. Players can vote there once it’s their time to vote.

    @Bright
    (IF you see this…) So you’re in Spain but get to be a Nielsen household there for U.S. tv? Or just for Spanish TV? I would want the original show voices, too. My hubby was born in Spain but hardly knows any Spanish (grew up in California, just happened to be born overseas while his dad worked there). Anyway, I don’t know much about how Nielsen works – but I know if they ever “employed” me I’d watch all my shows live if I could. As long as I was home, I’d try. Bye for now.

  • Bright

    Hi @rebecca, (as well, if you see this, hope you do). Yes just nielsen box for spanish tv of course, but spanish networks air a mix of spanish and foreign shows, in syndication, so they never air repeats. (thats what I like here).
    the nielsen box (at least here) is a ‘box’ with it’s own remote, where everytime the tv is on you have to mark how many people, age and gender they are watching tv so they can measure percentages of population (I don’t know if this was clear enough)
    They don’t pay you or anything, you get coupons for stuff as a gift.
    I had to look for ‘hubby’, didn’t know what that is but now I know, that’s nice to know that he was born here :D
    well talk to you soon ;)

  • Rebecca

    @Bright
    Okay, I understand. It’s nice you get coupons for participating. Sorry about the “hubby” word – it’s slang for husband. I use that word a lot on various chat boards (I chat on a couple Disney theme park related forums, sharing trip reports and whatnot) because he never wants me to use his name online, haha. By “employ” I just meant, if they used me as a Nielsen household some day. I know they don’t pay the Nielsen families. I wish they had more of them, though.

  • Sweetdays

    GCB was the final reason that we got rid of our television service altogether. It is great not to be paying for all the garbage that the networks are airing these days! There are other television providers!

  • martinex

    I’m not a big Shonda Rhimes fan (Frankly I find her writing a bit melodramatic) but Scandal looks interesting. I think it deserves a second season.

  • Colleen

    I hate scandal, but I love Body of Proof, so if Scandal is picked up and Body of Proof is canceled I will not even watch the news on this station ever again.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures