FOX: ‘Fringe’s’ Terrible Ratings Almost Irrelevant To Renewal, But Warner Brother’s Fees Aren’t

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 8, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) :| :| :| 0.50
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In :oops: 0.65
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.66
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
Raising Hope renewed 0.87
Bob’s Burgers :| :| :| 0.87
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz :cry: :cry: 0.94
The Finder :cry: :cry: 0.94
American Dad renewed 0.96
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
Bones renewed 1.11
House final season 1.14
The Simpsons renewed 1.24
New Girl renewed 1.35
Family Guy renewed 1.37
Touch :) :) :) :) 1.38
Glee renewed 1.44

Fringe ratings have bumped along at woeful levels since January.  Fans’ hopes for a fifth season seem to rise and fall with those tiny up or down ticks, and I don’t think they should.

As I’ve been noting all season long. Fringe’s terrible ratings under normal circumstances would certainly cause the show to be canceled. But the potential money fountain that is off network syndication sometimes causes producers to do things that don’t fit “normal” like cutting their license fee to the network to nothing. That’s what Warner Brothers will have to do to get another season of Fringe, and the chance that they might is what’s keeping it a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.


  • :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

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