FOX: 'Fringe's' Terrible Ratings Almost Irrelevant To Renewal, But Warner Brother's Fees Aren't

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 10th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 8, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) :| :| :| 0.50
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In :oops: 0.65
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.66
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
Raising Hope renewed 0.87
Bob's Burgers :| :| :| 0.87
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz :cry: :cry: 0.94
The Finder :cry: :cry: 0.94
American Dad renewed 0.96
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
Bones renewed 1.11
House final season 1.14
The Simpsons renewed 1.24
New Girl renewed 1.35
Family Guy renewed 1.37
Touch :) :) :) :) 1.38
Glee renewed 1.44

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Fringe ratings have bumped along at woeful levels since January.  Fans' hopes for a fifth season seem to rise and fall with those tiny up or down ticks, and I don't think they should.

As I've been noting all season long. Fringe's terrible ratings under normal circumstances would certainly cause the show to be canceled. But the potential money fountain that is off network syndication sometimes causes producers to do things that don't fit "normal" like cutting their license fee to the network to nothing. That's what Warner Brothers will have to do to get another season of Fringe, and the chance that they might is what's keeping it a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Me

    Just give us a fifth season with 20 episodes. There’s still a lot of money to make apart from FOX’s U.S. channel such as DVDs, Blu-Rays, internet sales (Itunes, Amazon) and international markets alongside with the syndication if the episode count exceeds 100. Don’t tell me a fifth season would be unprofitable with all these things going on.

  • Mike

    @ME

    I hope you know tvbythenumbers doesnt make those decisions???

  • Mike

    lets be honest even though terra nova was expensive it was doing better that alcatraz and they admitted that the show was making money…. they could have made a few budget cuts and got some better writers…

    and id also like to say how stupid fox was to loose the oppertunity to get the show of to a great star ratings wise… I say that because if you remember like i do terra nova was promoted nicely during the 2011 superbowl with the advertising specifically saying the 2hour episode was to air in may…. they are such idiots to mess that up and the also kept proting that for probably over a month afterwards

  • poshreany

    they should cancel Alcatraz…

  • tvfreak

    The comments are all gone! And the Elimination Game has been hopelessly screwed up!

    But fear not, fellow players…I am rebooting the game, with a new format and new rules.

    All the shows in the Index, excluding those already canceled, will be listed with 10 points to start. But there is a twist…Instead of voting one show up and one show down, one point each, people may now vote for their three favorite and three least favorite shows, giving +3, +2, +1, -1, -2 and -3 points. (I will demonstrate this below.) For obvious reasons, this will only work if there are more than six shows to choose from, so when only five shows remain I will switch to a two-favorite, two-least favorite system, then to the classic one-favorite, one-least favorite format when only three shows remain. Also, when shows hit 100 points they will be “locked” as victors. If there are multiple victors then the game will reset so only the victors compete against each other. And I will keep meticulous records of when exactly shows either drop out of the game or become victors.

    Other than that, the basic rules remain the same. Wait 24 hours between votes, etc. etc.

    Ready? Let’s go!

    FRINGE – 10
    BREAKING IN – 10
    THE CLEVELAND SHOW – 10
    RAISING HOPE – 12 (+2)
    BOB’S BURGERS – 10
    ALCATRAZ – 11 (+1)
    THE FINDER – 9 (-1)
    AMERICAN DAD – 10
    NAPOLEON DYNAMITE – 10
    BONES – 10
    HOUSE – 10
    THE SIMPSONS – 10
    NEW GIRL – 8 (-2)
    FAMILY GUY – 10
    TOUCH – 13 (+3)
    GLEE – 7 (-3)

  • Wesley

    House shouldn’t be included, as it’s been cancelled.

    FRINGE – 13 (+3)
    BREAKING IN – 9 (-1)
    THE CLEVELAND SHOW – 10
    RAISING HOPE – 12
    BOB’S BURGERS – 11 (+1)
    ALCATRAZ – 11
    THE FINDER – 7 (-2)
    AMERICAN DAD – 10
    NAPOLEON DYNAMITE – 10
    BONES – 10
    THE SIMPSONS – 10
    NEW GIRL – 8
    FAMILY GUY – 10
    TOUCH – 15 (+2)
    GLEE – 4 (-3)

  • tvfreak

    @Wesley: Final season means “ended,” not cancelled. Plus, its season isn’t over yet. By cancelled, I mean “done airing episodes, forever, confirmed by the network to be the case.” For this reason Chuck isn’t in the NBC game but the ABC game still has Desperate Housewives.

    I’m going to put House back in now…

    FRINGE – 13 (+3)
    BREAKING IN – 9 (-1)
    THE CLEVELAND SHOW – 10
    RAISING HOPE – 12
    BOB’S BURGERS – 11 (+1)
    ALCATRAZ – 11
    THE FINDER – 7 (-2)
    AMERICAN DAD – 10
    NAPOLEON DYNAMITE – 10
    BONES – 10
    HOUSE – 10
    THE SIMPSONS – 10
    NEW GIRL – 8
    FAMILY GUY – 10
    TOUCH – 15 (+2)
    GLEE – 4 (-3)

  • KJ Styles

    @Wesley- House hasn’t been cancelled, it’s ending. There’s a difference.

  • Wesley

    There really isn’t. It’s all semantics. The show is over either way. However, it’s tvfreak’s game, not mine. I won’t press the issue.

  • Rebecca

    The Elimination Game is just about favorite and least favorite shows anyway, and House is still on the air so it can be on the list IMO. I’ll vote later at my appropriate time or else tomorrow. Dang, and some shows were sort of close to winning before! Before the comments/votes disappeared.

  • Greg

    I believe in a final 13-episode season for Fringe. Just look at what happened to Chuck last year: also a Warner Bros show, Chuck received a final season just so it could reach the magic 88, even though the ratings were bad even by NBC standards.

  • AC75

    Will the old comments be replaced again or have they been lost for good? I need to know before I do any additional trolling or fanboi-ing.

  • Teag

    FRINGE – 16 (+3)
    BREAKING IN – 6 (-3)
    THE CLEVELAND SHOW – 10
    RAISING HOPE – 13 (+1)
    BOB’S BURGERS – 11
    ALCATRAZ – 11
    THE FINDER – 5 (-2)
    AMERICAN DAD – 10
    NAPOLEON DYNAMITE – 9 (-1)
    BONES – 10
    HOUSE – 10
    THE SIMPSONS – 10
    NEW GIRL – 10 (+2)
    FAMILY GUY – 10
    TOUCH – 15
    GLEE – 4

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I think Bill is completely wrong about Fringe. There is no incentive for Fox to air something that gets zero ratings even if it gets it for free. There are such things as “opportunity costs”. Anything Fox puts in place of Fringe could make it more money.

    Especially since Fringe has already reached minimum syndication numbers THIS season. It may make sense for Warner Brothers to want to get another season in for syndication – BUT that only makes sense if they really think the show WILL be syndicated. It hasn’t been sold yet.

    This takes the decision out of Warner Brothers’ hands and puts it back in Fox’s hands.

    Well, we only have four more weeks until we find out.

  • Joseph

    Or maybe Time Warner could show in HBO or ask NETFLIX for a fee to have it as a 1st run item.

  • Rebecca

    FRINGE – 16
    BREAKING IN – 3 (-3)
    THE CLEVELAND SHOW – 10
    RAISING HOPE – 16 (+3)
    BOB’S BURGERS – 11
    ALCATRAZ – 12 (+1)
    THE FINDER – 3 (-2)
    AMERICAN DAD – 10
    NAPOLEON DYNAMITE – 9
    BONES – 10
    HOUSE – 10
    THE SIMPSONS – 10
    NEW GIRL – 12 (+2)
    FAMILY GUY – 10
    TOUCH – 15
    GLEE – 3 (-1)

    quote from NG [1.20]:
    Nick: I could show you around. I could show you our world. Way up here, it’s crystal clear.
    Jess: Nick, you’re doing “Aladdin.”
    Nick: Again?

  • Phil

    Best:
    Breaking In
    The Simpsons
    Bob’s Burgers
    I have more that I wish to add here, like Family Guy, and Touch.

    Least:
    Glee
    The Finder
    Alcatraz

  • Toucan

    Breaking In has been pulled from the schedule, NG reruns will air in instead.

  • KOs

    Am I wrong or do I sense that the writer of this article hate/dislike Fringe?

  • Tab L. Uno

    I’m still watching Fringe, even as a late comer. It keeps getting better.

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