When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season
Retentionistas be Damned, Early Signs Good for 'Apartment 23'
The premiere of Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23 fared well enough to debut as "likely to be renewed." I'd have probably left it "on the bubble" for another couple of weeks, but it airs after a new Modern Family again next week and then after a Modern Family repeat on April 25. 'Apartment 23' would have to perform noticeably worse on April 25 than Happy Endings did out of Modern Family repeats to catch my eye, and I'll be surprised if that happens. Surprises happen though, so we'll just have to see.
Private Practice, Scandal and GCB on the bubble
For now I've still got Private Practice, Scandal and GCB all on the bubble. Of the three I give Private Practice an edge but that has more to do with its age than its ratings (it has two 2.1 ratings post Daylight Saving Time; hardly any better than GCB and Scandal did last week).
At this point Missing's average is worse than The River's. Neither will be back on ABC next season.
Touch Still Likely to Be Renewed
Though I have little doubt Fox hoped for more out of Touch, if it levels off at around a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating (where it's been likely to be renewed), it's still likely to be renewed. Barely. Let the cries of "No fair! Fox should've aired Alcatraz after American Idol" begin.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|How To Be a Gentleman||CBS||Canceled|
|I Hate My Teenage Daughter||Fox||Canceled|
|The Playboy Club||NBC||Canceled|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|The River||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|A Gifted Man||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|Best Friends Forever||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Harry's Law||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||Likely Cancellation|
|The Finder||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|Are You There, Chelsea?||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Cougar Town||ABC||On The Bubble|
|GCB||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Private Practice||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Scandal||ABC||On The Bubble|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rob||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Gossip Girl||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|The Secret Circle||CW||On The Bubble|
|Bob's Burgers||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Napoleon Dynamite||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Up All Night||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|30 Rock||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey's Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|The Office||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|The Good Wife||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Renewed|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Renewed|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Renewed|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Renewed|
|Desperate Housewives||ABC||Final Season|
|One Tree Hill||CW||Final Season|