Bubble Watch: The B in 'Apartment 23' Looks Good; 'Touch' Still Likely to Be Renewed; 'GCB' and 'Scandal' Remain on the Bubble

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 15th, 2012

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season

retentionistas be Damned, Early Signs Good for 'Apartment 23'

The premiere of Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 fared well enough to debut as "likely to be renewed." I'd have probably left it "on the bubble" for another couple of weeks, but it airs after a new Modern Family again next week and then after a Modern Family repeat on April 25. 'Apartment 23' would have to perform noticeably worse on April 25 than Happy Endings did out of Modern Family repeats to catch my eye, and I'll be surprised if that happens. Surprises happen though, so we'll just have to see.

Private Practice, Scandal and GCB on the bubble

For now I've still got Private Practice, Scandal and GCB all on the bubble. Of the three I give Private Practice an edge but that has more to do with its age than its ratings (it has two 2.1 ratings post Daylight Saving Time; hardly any better than GCB and Scandal did last week).

Missing Downgraded

At this point Missing's average is worse than The River's. Neither will be back on ABC next season.

Touch Still Likely to Be Renewed

Though I have little doubt Fox hoped for more out of Touch, if it levels off at around a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating (where it's been likely to be renewed), it's still likely to be renewed. Barely. Let the cries of "No fair! Fox should've aired Alcatraz after American Idol" begin.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

 

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Ringer CW Certain Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Best Friends Forever NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
Hart Of Dixie CW Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Private Practice ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
Touch Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • SoundableObject

    BFF should be down to certain cancellation after dipping to 0.9.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @SoundableObject: indeed. oversight on my part. will correct.

  • Sébastien (Belgium)

    1) Tv by the Numbers : “Fringe ratings have bumped along at woeful levels since January. Fans’ hopes for a fifth season seem to rise and fall with those tiny up or down ticks, and I don’t think they should.”

    2) Tv by the Numbers : “Fringe Likely cancellation”.

    Conclusion : fans’ hopes fall again…

    I enjoy very much your work, but here I do not understand…

  • Spencer

    They will probably give apartment 23 the Happy Endings treatment

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Sébastien: the simplest translation is that Bill (Renew/Cancel Index) and I do not completely agree with regard to Fringe, though we’re not really that far apart.

  • Dan

    Bob’s Burgers is on the bubble but it has enough episodes (13) left from season 2 to make up a third season so its basically coming back. Touch will be renewed since FOX wont cancel all their new dramas. They did it last season but they only premiered 2 new dramas last season.

    My question is that ABC will have a lot of comedies next fall if Modern Family, The Middle, Happy Endings, Suburgatory, Last Man Standing, and Apartment 23 are all renewed which they all look to be. Cougar Town by comparison doesnt look good for renewal.

    My guess about Fringe which is likely true is that a lot of buzz will come forth about a final season but no deal will be struck. Hopefully the “series finale” ending of Fringe will air on TV.

    Up All Night is the only new comedy looking to be renewed for NBC Chelsea, Bent, and BFF are all goners and while most think Whitney might be renewed, if NBC renews 5 comedies (Office, Parks, 30 Rock, Community, Up All Night) and wants to premiere at least 1 new comedy, where can Whitney go?

  • JakeSnake

    How many episodes of Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23 are they even going to air for this first season? Can’t say I understand why they started airing episodes at such an odd time, but I’m sure this first season isn’t a full one.

  • nyclover

    Yay Whitney is on likely renewal. It makes sense though. It’s a self starter against the stronger Idol day and still pulled about 1.5 or 1.6’s. It did hit 1.2 or 1.3 once but that was a one time thing. I’m glad we’ll probably be seeing it coming back. I watched the season finale of up all night on thursday and it thought it was really funny! I hope it gets renewed even though its just on the bubble now though :(

  • KS

    I don’t understand why Supernatural is becoming so Bobby and Castiel Centered. Next episode seem to be Bobby’s. Then Castiel’s. I hope Sera will remember, there are Winchesters and Leviathans also, on the show.

  • enes

    noooooo Ringer is a great show

  • Kat

    Take this with the usual huge grain of salt, but apparently Fringe is close to being renewed for a short final season. http://www.spoilertv.com/2012/04/fox-is-close-to-renewing-fringe-for.html

    Craig Silverstein was at C2E2 yesterday and said he’ll be pitching Nikita season 3 to CW execs next week but they don’t expect to hear a final word before May. So at the very least the rumored ‘Nikita writers might be told early they’re canceled so they can wrap it up’ scenario didn’t happen. Finale wraps shooting this Friday.

  • nyclover

    @dan first of all there is something called midseason to premiere comedies. and second of all Whitney has been doing a LOT better than Up All Night. When Whitney had the Office’s lead in, it pulled 1.9-2.1’s. Than Up All Night had The Office as it’s lead in and last week it pulled a 1.5. It’s been getting 1.4’s, 1.2’s and the like. Yes The Office was in the 2.1-2.6 range so it was lower than it was when Whitney had it, but still. Whitney{self starter, against Idol}= 1.6
    Up All Night{Office Lead In, Against CBS reruns and Series Low Grey’s Anatomy}= 1.5

  • SoundableObject

    I’m curious what the difference between Alcatraz and The Finder is that makes first certain and the second a likely cancellation. The Finder is performing so much worse on a Friday, even when taking into account the effect that a Friday usually has on ratings.

  • Ultima

    @Sebastien
    1) Bill Gorman : “Fringe ratings have bumped along at woeful levels since January. Fans’ hopes for a fifth season seem to rise and fall with those tiny up or down ticks, and I don’t think they should.”

    2) Robert Seidman: “Fringe Likely cancellation”.

    Fixed it for you.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @SoundableObject: the differences boil down to:

    1. it’s still airing episodes and I didn’t factor this Friday’s results in (though that wouldn’t have made much difference).

    2. the distinctions are somewhat arbitrary and I don’t split as many hairs between certain and likely as many of the readers.

  • Ultima

    Yeah, I should refresh before commenting…

  • Sébastien (Belgium)

    @ Kat I saw the same article yesterday on TVWise, but unfortunately this is only speculation.

    @ Robert Seidman : ok. I see. I did not pay attention to the fact that these 2 articles were written by different authors with different views.

  • Ultima

    @JakeSnake
    How many episodes of Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23 are they even going to air for this first season?

    Seven.

  • nyclover

    Lol last night i saw on NBC i saw a trailer for Harrys Law gloating about their 10 million viewers. They were BEGGING for more 18-49 viewers. They promoed a scene at a strip clup and Harry was saying “were young, hip, and cool” as all the strippers danced.

  • Sid

    Since when did this site become a discussion board for SPN?

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures