Bubble Watch: The B in 'Apartment 23' Looks Good; 'Touch' Still Likely to Be Renewed; 'GCB' and 'Scandal' Remain on the Bubble

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 15th, 2012

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season

retentionistas be Damned, Early Signs Good for 'Apartment 23'

The premiere of Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 fared well enough to debut as "likely to be renewed." I'd have probably left it "on the bubble" for another couple of weeks, but it airs after a new Modern Family again next week and then after a Modern Family repeat on April 25. 'Apartment 23' would have to perform noticeably worse on April 25 than Happy Endings did out of Modern Family repeats to catch my eye, and I'll be surprised if that happens. Surprises happen though, so we'll just have to see.

Private Practice, Scandal and GCB on the bubble

For now I've still got Private Practice, Scandal and GCB all on the bubble. Of the three I give Private Practice an edge but that has more to do with its age than its ratings (it has two 2.1 ratings post Daylight Saving Time; hardly any better than GCB and Scandal did last week).

Missing Downgraded

At this point Missing's average is worse than The River's. Neither will be back on ABC next season.

Touch Still Likely to Be Renewed

Though I have little doubt Fox hoped for more out of Touch, if it levels off at around a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating (where it's been likely to be renewed), it's still likely to be renewed. Barely. Let the cries of "No fair! Fox should've aired Alcatraz after American Idol" begin.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

 

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Ringer CW Certain Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Best Friends Forever NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
Hart Of Dixie CW Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Private Practice ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
Touch Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • Ccemerson

    @ nyclover They run that Harry’s Law promo like crazy on Days of Our Lives Mon thru Friday

  • Jayson

    So i was reading an article about Bob’s Burgers. Apparently only 9 episodes will be part of season two, and the remaining 13 will air in the 2012-2013 TV season. So shouldn’t that mean Bob’s Burgers was renewed? Why is it still a bubble show if FOX said that?

  • Agnes

    Why is Bent “Certain Cancellation” rather than “Cancelled”? Seems to me that NBC cancelled it before it even aired and then quickly burnt off the only 6 episodes ever made in 3 weeks accross one of its death slots. Just because there was no formal announcement…

  • KS

    Sorry, guys, I have posted the SPN comment here instead of R/C index. My Bad :(

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Jayson: semantics. It didn’t get an additional renewal — what you’re talking about is still part of the season two renewal. If it doesn’t get another renewal by season’s end, I’ll note that it has carryover episodes, but don’t want to imply that it has received an additional renewal since it hasn’t yet.

  • Dan S

    I was pleasantly surprised at how funny & daring Apt 23 is. It definitely deserves a 2nd season & could easily be the anchor for a new comedy night. I’m not giving up on the chance that both Missing & Harry’s Law come back next season. Despite there low 18-49 demos I still feel that there overall household numbers won’t be overlooked. At best I’d put them as on the bubble & at worst likely cancellation.

  • Raykov

    RoE should be on likely renewal and TAHM on the certain.

  • nyclover

    This is what I think ABC will do with their shows:

    Body Of Proof CANCELLED
    Cougar Town CANCELLED
    The River* CANCELLED
    Missing CANCELLED
    Scandal RENEWED
    GCB CANCELLED
    Castle RENEWED
    Last Man Standing CANCELLED
    Private Practice RENEWED
    Revenge RENEWED
    Suburgatory RENEWED
    Happy Endings RENEWED
    Desperate Housewives final season
    The Middle RENEWED
    Once Upon A Time RENEWED
    Grey’s Anatomy RENEWED
    Modern Family RENEWED

  • RAYRAY

    Please let SCANDAL get renewed. it’s my new favorite show.

  • disney rocks

    @Nyclover, I’d be surprised if LMS is cancelled. ABC wants to start up more multi camera sitcoms, and its the first step to launching more. They need it to help launch more ones. It was their only somewhat successful multi-camera sitcom of the season. It does good in reruns, so ABC will want to get it syndicated. Bet it will have at least 4-5 seasons.

  • disney rocks

    Uh, Robert, why does SVU say likely renewal, its been renewed. Greenblatt said it would be renewed after acknowledging NBC had a bad fall. Mariska said she’s committed to the shown next season and is having fun. So it’s renewed.

  • disney rocks

    WOW. Already 13 new shows cancelled. The bad state of broadcast continues. And there will be plenty more joining them.

  • nyclover

    @disney rocks um? You think getting a 1.7 in its first season, is a sign indicating another 4 seasons?

  • shephard

    Any chance for Awake to be renewed? NBC can’t cancel everything!
    (Is my favourite show)

  • NYClover

    Ok, so we’ve got 17 shows already not coming back next season. And it’s april.

  • NYClover

    @Shepard Nope sorry, it got a 0.9. Its a shame, it was a good show. If a show ever falls below a 1.0 on NBC it means its a goner.

  • Jay S.

    SVU should be a certain renewal, obviously.

    Body of Proof, Missing and Harry’s Law should be likely, not certain cancellation.

    Calling Apt. 23 likely renewal after just one episode is kind of silly. Shows should have a least three airings before being included in this table.

  • Nick

    How did the list of shows for certain cancellation grow from 3 to 10 in a couple of weeks?

    @nyclover
    ABC is taking a LMS renewal into consideration because, like Whitney on NBC, it is the only show that is doing well on a failing night:

    It was paired with 3 failing sitcoms that were nothing like it (Man Up, Work It, Cougar Town)
    It got stuck with the low-rated River and Celebrity Wife Swap.
    The only other good show on the night is DWTS, which attracts a different viewer and is sinking.

    It also got mid-3s in the fall..so..

  • Domino

    I dont know why Missing is “certain cancellation” when both Scandal and GCB have less audience share and Missing is in a much tougher timeslot. Missing almost have the same amount of audience as Grey’s, albeit smaller in the friendly demographics. Obviously I am enjoying Missing, hope they keep it.

  • Mike

    Wow. Fox has some work to do: “House,” “Terra Nova,” “Alcatraz,” “The Finder,” “Fringe,” “Allen Gregory,” “Breaking In,” “I Hate My Teenage Daughter.” That’s six and a half hours of programming—not counting the fate of “Napoleon Dynamite” or “Bob’s Burgers”—from a network that programs only fifteen hours a week. If these projections are accurate, Fox has some major remodeling to do.

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