When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season
retentionistas be Damned, Early Signs Good for 'Apartment 23'
The premiere of Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 fared well enough to debut as "likely to be renewed." I'd have probably left it "on the bubble" for another couple of weeks, but it airs after a new Modern Family again next week and then after a Modern Family repeat on April 25. 'Apartment 23' would have to perform noticeably worse on April 25 than Happy Endings did out of Modern Family repeats to catch my eye, and I'll be surprised if that happens. Surprises happen though, so we'll just have to see.
Private Practice, Scandal and GCB on the bubble
For now I've still got Private Practice, Scandal and GCB all on the bubble. Of the three I give Private Practice an edge but that has more to do with its age than its ratings (it has two 2.1 ratings post Daylight Saving Time; hardly any better than GCB and Scandal did last week).
Missing Downgraded
At this point Missing's average is worse than The River's. Neither will be back on ABC next season.
Touch Still Likely to Be Renewed
Though I have little doubt Fox hoped for more out of Touch, if it levels off at around a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating (where it's been likely to be renewed), it's still likely to be renewed. Barely. Let the cries of "No fair! Fox should've aired Alcatraz after American Idol" begin.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| Charlie's Angels | ABC | Canceled |
| Man Up | ABC | Canceled |
| Pan Am | ABC | Canceled |
| Work It | ABC | Canceled |
| How To Be A Gentleman | CBS | Canceled |
| Allen Gregory | Fox | Canceled |
| Breaking In | Fox | Canceled |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter | Fox | Canceled |
| Terra Nova | Fox | Canceled |
| The Firm | NBC | Canceled |
| Free Agents | NBC | Canceled |
| Prime Suspect | NBC | Canceled |
| The Playboy Club | NBC | Canceled |
| Body Of Proof | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Missing | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| The River | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| A Gifted Man | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| Ringer | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| Alcatraz | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| Awake | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Bent | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Best Friends Forever | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Harry's Law | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Unforgettable | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Fringe | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| The Finder | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Are You There, Chelsea? | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Cougar Town | ABC | On The Bubble |
| GCB | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Private Practice | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: Miami | CBS | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rob | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Gossip Girl | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Secret Circle | CW | On The Bubble |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Napoleon Dynamite | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Up All Night | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| 90210 | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Touch | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Community | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Whitney | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Office | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Renewed |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Renewed |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Renewed |
| CSI | CBS | Renewed |
| The Good Wife | CBS | Renewed |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| The Mentalist | CBS | Renewed |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Renewed |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| Glee | Fox | Renewed |
| New Girl | Fox | Renewed |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| Grimm | NBC | Renewed |
| Smash | NBC | Renewed |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | Final Season |
| One Tree Hill | CW | Final Season |
| House | Fox | Final Season |
| Chuck | NBC | Final Season |
@ nyclover They run that Harry’s Law promo like crazy on Days of Our Lives Mon thru Friday
So i was reading an article about Bob’s Burgers. Apparently only 9 episodes will be part of season two, and the remaining 13 will air in the 2012-2013 TV season. So shouldn’t that mean Bob’s Burgers was renewed? Why is it still a bubble show if FOX said that?
Why is Bent “Certain Cancellation” rather than “Cancelled”? Seems to me that NBC cancelled it before it even aired and then quickly burnt off the only 6 episodes ever made in 3 weeks accross one of its death slots. Just because there was no formal announcement…
Sorry, guys, I have posted the SPN comment here instead of R/C index. My Bad
Jayson: semantics. It didn’t get an additional renewal — what you’re talking about is still part of the season two renewal. If it doesn’t get another renewal by season’s end, I’ll note that it has carryover episodes, but don’t want to imply that it has received an additional renewal since it hasn’t yet.
I was pleasantly surprised at how funny & daring Apt 23 is. It definitely deserves a 2nd season & could easily be the anchor for a new comedy night. I’m not giving up on the chance that both Missing & Harry’s Law come back next season. Despite there low 18-49 demos I still feel that there overall household numbers won’t be overlooked. At best I’d put them as on the bubble & at worst likely cancellation.
RoE should be on likely renewal and TAHM on the certain.
This is what I think ABC will do with their shows:
Body Of Proof CANCELLED
Cougar Town CANCELLED
The River* CANCELLED
Missing CANCELLED
Scandal RENEWED
GCB CANCELLED
Castle RENEWED
Last Man Standing CANCELLED
Private Practice RENEWED
Revenge RENEWED
Suburgatory RENEWED
Happy Endings RENEWED
Desperate Housewives final season
The Middle RENEWED
Once Upon A Time RENEWED
Grey’s Anatomy RENEWED
Modern Family RENEWED
Please let SCANDAL get renewed. it’s my new favorite show.
@Nyclover, I’d be surprised if LMS is cancelled. ABC wants to start up more multi camera sitcoms, and its the first step to launching more. They need it to help launch more ones. It was their only somewhat successful multi-camera sitcom of the season. It does good in reruns, so ABC will want to get it syndicated. Bet it will have at least 4-5 seasons.
Uh, Robert, why does SVU say likely renewal, its been renewed. Greenblatt said it would be renewed after acknowledging NBC had a bad fall. Mariska said she’s committed to the shown next season and is having fun. So it’s renewed.
WOW. Already 13 new shows cancelled. The bad state of broadcast continues. And there will be plenty more joining them.
@disney rocks um? You think getting a 1.7 in its first season, is a sign indicating another 4 seasons?
Any chance for Awake to be renewed? NBC can’t cancel everything!
(Is my favourite show)
Ok, so we’ve got 17 shows already not coming back next season. And it’s april.
@Shepard Nope sorry, it got a 0.9. Its a shame, it was a good show. If a show ever falls below a 1.0 on NBC it means its a goner.
SVU should be a certain renewal, obviously.
Body of Proof, Missing and Harry’s Law should be likely, not certain cancellation.
Calling Apt. 23 likely renewal after just one episode is kind of silly. Shows should have a least three airings before being included in this table.
How did the list of shows for certain cancellation grow from 3 to 10 in a couple of weeks?
@nyclover
ABC is taking a LMS renewal into consideration because, like Whitney on NBC, it is the only show that is doing well on a failing night:
It was paired with 3 failing sitcoms that were nothing like it (Man Up, Work It, Cougar Town)
It got stuck with the low-rated River and Celebrity Wife Swap.
The only other good show on the night is DWTS, which attracts a different viewer and is sinking.
It also got mid-3s in the fall..so..
I dont know why Missing is “certain cancellation” when both Scandal and GCB have less audience share and Missing is in a much tougher timeslot. Missing almost have the same amount of audience as Grey’s, albeit smaller in the friendly demographics. Obviously I am enjoying Missing, hope they keep it.
Wow. Fox has some work to do: “House,” “Terra Nova,” “Alcatraz,” “The Finder,” “Fringe,” “Allen Gregory,” “Breaking In,” “I Hate My Teenage Daughter.” That’s six and a half hours of programming—not counting the fate of “Napoleon Dynamite” or “Bob’s Burgers”—from a network that programs only fifteen hours a week. If these projections are accurate, Fox has some major remodeling to do.