Bubble Watch: The B in 'Apartment 23' Looks Good; 'Touch' Still Likely to Be Renewed; 'GCB' and 'Scandal' Remain on the Bubble

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 15th, 2012

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season

retentionistas be Damned, Early Signs Good for 'Apartment 23'

The premiere of Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 fared well enough to debut as "likely to be renewed." I'd have probably left it "on the bubble" for another couple of weeks, but it airs after a new Modern Family again next week and then after a Modern Family repeat on April 25. 'Apartment 23' would have to perform noticeably worse on April 25 than Happy Endings did out of Modern Family repeats to catch my eye, and I'll be surprised if that happens. Surprises happen though, so we'll just have to see.

Private Practice, Scandal and GCB on the bubble

For now I've still got Private Practice, Scandal and GCB all on the bubble. Of the three I give Private Practice an edge but that has more to do with its age than its ratings (it has two 2.1 ratings post Daylight Saving Time; hardly any better than GCB and Scandal did last week).

Missing Downgraded

At this point Missing's average is worse than The River's. Neither will be back on ABC next season.

Touch Still Likely to Be Renewed

Though I have little doubt Fox hoped for more out of Touch, if it levels off at around a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating (where it's been likely to be renewed), it's still likely to be renewed. Barely. Let the cries of "No fair! Fox should've aired Alcatraz after American Idol" begin.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

 

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Ringer CW Certain Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Best Friends Forever NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
Hart Of Dixie CW Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Private Practice ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
Touch Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • NYClover

    @Nick I understand it was paired with failing shows, but that does not gurantee a renewal. And what? Suburgatory wasn’t a hit? I think since Suburgatory and B Apt 23 is doing well(so far) that they don’t feel the need to renew a show that gets 1.7′s.

  • Ultima

    @Nick
    How did the list of shows for certain cancellation grow from 3 to 10 in a couple of weeks?

    Four of the certain cancellations are March/April premieres.

  • Ultima

    @Domino
    I dont know why Missing is “certain cancellation”

    It’s 1.6 rating ranks 12th out of the 13 ABC dramas and is 20% below both GCB and Scandal.

  • Ultima

    @Mike
    If these projections are accurate, Fox has some major remodeling to do.

    FOX only has to premiere two or three hours of new programming in the fall, which isn’t unreasonable or abnormal.

  • Brandy

    I hate seeing HOD likley cancellation, nikita,gcb,sc,ggon the bubble.I think Nikta & HOD should switch places or nikta be in certain cancellation.Ringer &Nikita are goners, HOD too probably if cw can afford to cancel oth, hod, ringer, nikita, remodeled, h8trs, framed/the frame all in one season or if it hit 0.4s though I heard cw was more likley to renew HOD over SC as SC looses half of vds audience in total viewers and demo and has lost a lot of veiewers from the pilot to now whereas Hart grows out of its leadin and of the three remaining new shows, its lost the least amount of viewers over the season. The main shows I want renewed are :VD, HOD, GG, SC.

  • Sid

    @Brandy

    Luckily for NIKITA fans you don’t get to decide where it should be placed on the bubble watch :D

    Oh and where did you hear that crazy rumor HoD is more likely to be renewed over TSC?

  • RyanCanada

    your cant judge Appt23 after 1 epsode, the likelyhood, is it will go down

  • Dahne

    @Brandy – While it is certain that Secret Circle will lose its cushy post-VD spot next year, no way it is canceled while Hart of Dixie is renewed. HoD hasn’t hit a 0.7 or higher since the first week of December. In contrast, SC has only dipped to 0.6 once. Yes, SC has the scheduling advantage and is a huge disappointment to the CW, but if it is not renewed then there will be a record number of pilots airing this fall on the CW. I see it renewed on the “we can’t afford to cancel everything” budget bottom line.

  • Brandy

    Sd, nikitas still gonna be cancelled because its demos are terrible.I heard that on the cw renewal/cancel index just like I heard according to a cw insider Ringers gone and Nikita has to hit 0.7 to be renewed,thats its on the bubble and producers would be imformed early so they could wrap up but that gg, antm,spn, vd,90210 were 100% safe and will get early renewals and that all faith in/hope for Nikita has been lost cause of its terrible ratings.Hart is doing better than Nikita in W18_34, A18_49, dvr and demo now that Nikitas 0.4s, itll be lucky and suprising to hit 0.5 again.

  • AppleStinx

    @tukan,

    Invite Oprah.

  • Brandy

    Dahne, thats just what I heard from a cw scource.

  • ChrisA

    DAMN I want “Missing” back for another season. I think ABC should have premiere it during the summer instead and paired it up with “Rookie Blue”.

  • Felipe

    Nikita can be renewed, it would be easier if the next ratings get better D: But we don’t know.. anyway, i still believe on a season 3. To a friday show (compared to other shows in Monday, Tuesday.. on CW), Nikita is “at least” on the same situation as other series like HOD and GG.

  • sara

    Robert I have no where else to go with my question, and you are sooo smart (OK that was over the top, sorry) But…

    When setting up Nielsen participants are things like education and income included or is it simply age and family structure?

    Seems like younger, more educated, higher income people are using computer to get programs, Wonder if there is now a prejudice against that population built into sampling.

  • HGFM

    @disney rocks
    SVU has NOT been renewed yet. Greenblatt did not so that in the interview. But lots of people misinterpreted what he said as a renewal.

    @Jay S
    SVU should not be considered a Certain Renewal. Its ratings don’t justify that even if it is the third highest rated scripted show on NBC.
    Season 12′s 10PM season premiere had a 3.2 rating. Season 13 had a 2.4. That’s a big drop on its own. But SVU’s ratings have continued to drop through the season from 2.4 to 1.6. It may have a slight flutter up when CSI is a repeat but that doesn’t change the reality of losing viewers. It is too expensive a show to continue even for NBC.

  • Charles

    @shephard – Zero chance it happens. While it’s a great show, the only place those 0.9 ratings would even consider getting it renewed would be on the CW. The only way it’d even have a chance to survive is if NBC shipped it over to SyFy, which I don’t see happening.

    @Mike – Here’s a list of pilots that FOX has lined up for next season that I’m aware of: http://tv.yahoo.com/news/fall-pilots-2012-fox-214653308.html So they look like they have quite a bit of shows to choose from.

  • SJ

    @NYClover

    The lowest LMS has gone was a 1.8 this past Tuesday. So I don’t know what “show that keeps getting 1.7s in its freshman season” you’re referring to. The Middle had a similar issue in season 1, where it basically had to air on its own in the 8pm hour being led-in by its own repeats. LMS has had three duds air after it – Man Up, Work It and Cougar Town. ABC is likely planning on repeating it in the summer and have it build an audience like that, just like The Middle did.

    By the way, I’m not a fan of the show and would like it canceled in favor of something more original, but it ain’t gonna happen.

    Re: Private Practice vs. Scandal and GCB – in theory, I’d also give PP a sight edge because it’s already in syndication (err… I think) and any losses that ABC might take on it next year could be made up for by adding more episodes for syndication. But on the other hand, Scandal and GCB do show potential for growth. Otherwise they’d already be at Charlie’s Angels/Missing/River levels (fellow freshman dramas that had a sluggish start and just kept dropping from there).

    I still say PP’s best shot is a mid-season renewal type thing, for Body of Proof Friday – both veterans could benefit greatly if ABC is having a bad pilot season – and for Scandal and GCB the fall season, where Grey’s will almost certainly recover and provide a better lead-in for the former, while GCB can hope for a better lead-in from whatever replaces Housewives. The two newer series should also hope that ABC only wants to premiere three dramas in the fall, otherwise one of them is toast, likely Scandal.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Uh, disneyrocks, Law & Order SVU has not yet been renewed. Regardless of what you think you may have read.

  • Kyle

    I’ve started to think why Unforgettable is more likely a goner when it does respectable well in it’s timeslot. However, it’s the CBS, and they cancelled Ghost Whisperer two years ago and that show had the same positive notes.

  • Carm

    PLEASE PLEASE NBC Keep Harry’s Law!!! PLEASE PLEASE CBS KEEP UNFORGETTABLE!! THESE ARE GREAT DRAMAS..

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures