Bubble Watch: The B in 'Apartment 23' Looks Good; 'Touch' Still Likely to Be Renewed; 'GCB' and 'Scandal' Remain on the Bubble

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 15th, 2012

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season

retentionistas be Damned, Early Signs Good for 'Apartment 23'

The premiere of Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 fared well enough to debut as "likely to be renewed." I'd have probably left it "on the bubble" for another couple of weeks, but it airs after a new Modern Family again next week and then after a Modern Family repeat on April 25. 'Apartment 23' would have to perform noticeably worse on April 25 than Happy Endings did out of Modern Family repeats to catch my eye, and I'll be surprised if that happens. Surprises happen though, so we'll just have to see.

Private Practice, Scandal and GCB on the bubble

For now I've still got Private Practice, Scandal and GCB all on the bubble. Of the three I give Private Practice an edge but that has more to do with its age than its ratings (it has two 2.1 ratings post Daylight Saving Time; hardly any better than GCB and Scandal did last week).

Missing Downgraded

At this point Missing's average is worse than The River's. Neither will be back on ABC next season.

Touch Still Likely to Be Renewed

Though I have little doubt Fox hoped for more out of Touch, if it levels off at around a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating (where it's been likely to be renewed), it's still likely to be renewed. Barely. Let the cries of "No fair! Fox should've aired Alcatraz after American Idol" begin.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

 

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Ringer CW Certain Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Best Friends Forever NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
Hart Of Dixie CW Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Private Practice ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
Touch Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • NYClover

    @SJ My mistake, I must have only been remembering the preliminary numbers. But nope. I honest can’t see this happening:
    Modern Family: Average: 4.7 – Renewed
    The Middle: Average: 2.7 – Renewed
    Happy Endings: Average: 2.5 – Renewed
    Suburgatory: Average: 2.7 – renewed
    Bi.tch 23: Average: 2.6(thats a guess for what will happen in the 7 episodes) – renewed
    LMS: Average: 2.2 (recently in the 1.8-2.0 area) – renewed

    I honestly can see all of that happening accept for LMS. It just doesnt seem logical to me. Now i’m excited to see what ABC does lol

  • NYC_lover

    Btw its NYC Lover not NY Clover…hahaha

  • Bunny

    I have a question: Is abc going to choose between Apt 23 and Happy Endings?

    or it doesn’t really matter?

  • Sid

    @Brandy

    What CW source are you talking about? The one on spoiler tv? The same one that says that GOSSIP GIRL is 100% safe while SPN is relatively safe?

    Listen, no one knows what The CW will do. Craig said yesterday that filming for NIKITA ends this Friday(4/20) and that he’s pitching a Season 3 to CW execs next week. Nothing is set in stone and he won’t probably know about a renewal until a few days before upfronts. Like I said it’s nothing guaranteed but it also shows that they are at least still a bit interested in the direction of the show.

    You keep comparing NIKITA’S 0.4 TO HoD’s 0.5 as if if they’re that FAR APART, news flash, THEY’RE NOT! Plus NIKITA airs on Fridays and HoD airs on Mondays. CW is in such a state right now that only 3 veteran dramas are performing solidly(TVD,SPN & 9O21O).

    Flagship veterans like ANTM and GG are struggling to stay over 1 million viewers and they’ve lost double digits in their proclaimed Women demos.

    Then you have the “Failing Freshman” dramas that show no promise of building an audience because they keep losing them(yeah yeah I know HoD lost the least amount of its audience). Hart of Dixie and RINGER both have two popular TV actresses (SMG and RB) that were supposed to bring good ratings “at best” and they can’t even do that. They’re both gone IMO and the only thing that will cause NIKITA’s cancellation is if CW moves TSC to Fridays(very likely)

    And finally, there’s no proof (according to both Bill and Robert) that CW bases their renewals on Women and young adult demos. If that was the case, we’d be arguing over HELLCATS right now instead of NIKITA.

  • Ultima

    @NYClover
    I honest can’t see this happening:
    Modern Family: Average: 4.7 – Renewed
    The Middle: Average: 2.7 – Renewed
    Happy Endings: Average: 2.5 – Renewed
    Suburgatory: Average: 2.7 – renewed
    Bi.tch 23: Average: 2.6(thats a guess for what will happen in the 7 episodes) – renewed
    LMS: Average: 2.2 (recently in the 1.8-2.0 area) – renewed

    Where are you getting those numbers from?

    Live+SD Season-to-date
    Modern Family – 5.3
    Happy Endings – 2.7
    Suburgatory – 2.7
    The Middle – 2.7
    Last Man Standing – 2.5

    Live+SD since 1 January
    Modern Family – 4.9
    Suburgatory – 2.5
    The Middle – 2.5
    Happy Endings – 2.4
    Last Man Standing – 2.2

  • NYC_lover

    @Ultima those were averages I made up, just based on what i’ve seen throughout the season. Since they were around the same number, i don’t believe its a reason to make yourself look like a jerk in front of everyone.

  • Jinjeon

    I wish NBC would just burn off The Playboy Club episodes. I really liked that show and would love to see the remaining episodes. Why don’t they just burn them off?

  • Bee

    i’ll be furious if PP gets cancelled. idc if its for a mid-season friday airing of 10 episodes at this point. it MUST get wrapped up, esp. since major things are happening these last 5 episodes.

    scandal hasss to get renewed. it’s soooo good. and apparently big/crazy things are ahead. excited. don’t make scandal and PP an either/or situation ABC! they SHOULD, provided it doesn’t go under 1.7 anytime, renew scandal for a second 8-13 episode season and keep it after grey’s. if it does well, order more eps and use PP to replace a failed freshman drama. if not, replace it with PP mid-season. i would say put a new show after grey’s, but seeing as to how very few shows are compatible with grey’s and flopped behind it even during its biggest days, keeps thursdays shondaland night would be best.

    is it too late for ABC to change GCB’s name to the full good christian belles? it would require zero effort since all they’d be doing is filling in the initials. thank goodness they didn’t re-name don’t trust the bitch in apartment 23 as “DTTBIA23″ thinking it had a good ring to it.

    last bit of rambling: i REALLY hope ABC re-airs revenge and OUAT this summer. ESPECIALLY revenge. their summer schedule is drenched in reality TV. nobody needs that much weightloss or bachelor or whatever. putting the seasons online is helpful, but not nearly as much as re-airing on TV.

  • Brandy

    Sid, no but from someone who works in marketing at cw. Hellcats had 04-0.5 in demo though I’m unsure of the w18-34 but Nikita was renewed only because of the “freshman pity renewal” and cause Lux, Shedding for the Wedding,Hellcats were cancelled/Hellcats tanked last half of the season(2-3 cancellations were typical for cw especially when last year, cw was in better shape and could more afford to keep Nikita). Hart would Likley be doing much better if it wasn’t up against Voice, Bachelor, Dancing with Stars, 2.5 Men, but Nikita wasn’t doing good enough not put in the Fri death slot last year.

  • Kenny

    You have to be FU@@ING KIDDING ME that “WHITNEY” IS LIKELY TO BE RENEWED? Who in the hell do she screw to get that piece of UNFUNNY CRAP RENEWED, This is the biggest joke in the world no wonder NBC is in the crapper, BENT was so much funnier and they never gave it a shot. I`m FLOORED i just read this..UNREAL!!!!!!!!!!

  • Ram510

    I think CW should at least renew Nikita for a short season as back up if another show fails. I mean seriously what other show will the CW put on Friday at 8 that will do much better? TSC? It’s starting to hit .6 which isn’t much higher than Nikita and that’s after TVD.

    The whole CW is low and I would say its all a toss up

  • Spencer

    The CW has to renew atleast 6 shows
    SuperNatural
    90210
    Vampire diaries
    The Secret circle
    Nikita
    Gossip Girl

  • Spencer

    Fox has to renew atleast 5 dramas
    Bones
    Fringe
    Glee
    The Finder (Ratings weren’t bad till Fridays)
    Touch

  • Sid

    “no but from someone who works in marketing at cw”

    Who is this SOMEONE?! Does he/she have a name? Or better yet, do they even exist? This sounds like when you hear a story from a guys best friends sisters cousins mom. You never find out who the real person is, its just a he said, she said, they said story.

    “Nikita was renewed only because of the “freshman pity renewal””

    That and because CW needed a Friday drama to replace SMALLVILLE. I did say this is what will cause NIKITA’a cancellation this season because TSC IS FRIDAY BOUND(this season’s “freshman pity renewal” as you would say). There’s no place for Hart of Dixie next Season on a Mon-Wed schedule(especially if TSC gets the “freshman pity renewal” and is shipped off to Fridays).

    “Hart would Likley be doing much better if it wasn’t up against Voice, Bachelor, Dancing with Stars, 2.5 Men, but Nikita wasn’t doing good enough not put in the Fri death slot last year.”

    Every show has competition Brany; not just Hart of Dixie. Can anyone tell me if she’s using a @Fan Excuse Bingo because it sounds like she is?

  • Ultima

    @NYC lover
    those were averages I made up, just based on what i’ve seen throughout the season. Since they were around the same number, i don’t believe its a reason to make yourself look like a jerk in front of everyone.

    You go to a website dedicated to analyzing TV by the numbers, then you just make up numbers, then you call people names when they call you out on it.

    Good luck with that.

  • Jane Elliot

    General question for folks more knowledgeable than I: I know that advertising for first run shows is based on a promised rating level and that if the ratings don’t meet the promised level, the ads are cheaper. My question is, do they pay more than the set rate if the ratings are wildly above the promised level? And are ads during reruns the same rate as first run, or are they less (and is the amount they cost connected to the ratings or is it a flat fee)?

  • SJ

    @NYC_lover

    Yeah, but Last Man Standing doesn’t air in the Wednesday block. It gave them comedy presence on Tuesdays, for the first time in a long time. The mere position of the show on ABC’s schedule gives it a lot of goodwill from the network. That’s its biggest asset. Well, that and the fact that, for the 13 or so weeks that DWTS was off the air this winter it was the only thing on Tuesday night not to completely crumble in its absence.

    @Bee

    i REALLY hope ABC re-airs revenge and OUAT this summer. ESPECIALLY revenge.

    Unfortunately, I see zero chance of that happening. Especially for Revenge. OUAT might get a few repeat airings in July/August, depending on how many Secret Millionaire episodes they’re doing, but Wednesdays at 10 are probably going to be occupied by that Primetime special that aired last summer, Beyond Belief or something like that. They avoid repeating their serialized dramas in the summer, so aside from comedy repeats (everything BUT Happy Endings and Apartment 23, obviously :roll: ) the only drama I’d expect to see in repeats in the summer is Castle.

    Speaking of Happy Endings and Apartment 23, while ABC will certainly avoid repeating them, they’ll probably air the “missing” season 2 episode of HE and the remaining six episodes of A23.

  • Brandy

    Yes, every show has competition but Mon & Thurs are the most competitive nights of tv.There are also some shows like Voice, Dancing,Ncis, Idol, that absolutley no show stands a chance against, what’s Nikita’s exsuse for 04-0.5 with no competition?SPN does quite well for Fri, so why not Nikita?

  • NYC_lover

    @SJ That makes sense. I still feel like LMS will get cancelled, but i guess its really up in the air.

  • Sid

    “Yes, every show has competition but Mon & Thurs are the most competitive nights of tv.There are also some shows like Voice, Dancing,Ncis, Idol, that absolutley no show stands a chance against, what’s Nikita’s exsuse for 04-0.5 with no competition?SPN does quite well for Fri, so why not Nikita?”

    Brandy, NIKITA had tough competition last Season when it was on Thursdays(which is actually stated to be the most competitive night on network television. It faced Idol/Bones, Grey’s Anatomy, CSI and The Office.

    Fridays may not be competitive but its a night where most people go out. CBS scores a maximum of 1.8 in A18-49 on Fridays. This is a network that has no problem reaching over a 3.5-4.0 on Mon-Th.

    “SPN does quite well for Fri, so why not Nikita?”

    SPN had SMALLVILLE and TVD as a lead-in for 6 seasons before it was shipped to Fridays. It was already established and it had a very strong following when moved there. NIKITA was moved there only in its second season.

    And since your asking all the questions let me ask one, what is stopping Hart of Dixie from scoring a 0.6-0.7 on a Monday and SPN has no problem scoring that on a Friday?

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures