When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season
retentionistas be Damned, Early Signs Good for 'Apartment 23'
The premiere of Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 fared well enough to debut as "likely to be renewed." I'd have probably left it "on the bubble" for another couple of weeks, but it airs after a new Modern Family again next week and then after a Modern Family repeat on April 25. 'Apartment 23' would have to perform noticeably worse on April 25 than Happy Endings did out of Modern Family repeats to catch my eye, and I'll be surprised if that happens. Surprises happen though, so we'll just have to see.
Private Practice, Scandal and GCB on the bubble
For now I've still got Private Practice, Scandal and GCB all on the bubble. Of the three I give Private Practice an edge but that has more to do with its age than its ratings (it has two 2.1 ratings post Daylight Saving Time; hardly any better than GCB and Scandal did last week).
Missing Downgraded
At this point Missing's average is worse than The River's. Neither will be back on ABC next season.
Touch Still Likely to Be Renewed
Though I have little doubt Fox hoped for more out of Touch, if it levels off at around a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating (where it's been likely to be renewed), it's still likely to be renewed. Barely. Let the cries of "No fair! Fox should've aired Alcatraz after American Idol" begin.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| Charlie's Angels | ABC | Canceled |
| Man Up | ABC | Canceled |
| Pan Am | ABC | Canceled |
| Work It | ABC | Canceled |
| How To Be A Gentleman | CBS | Canceled |
| Allen Gregory | Fox | Canceled |
| Breaking In | Fox | Canceled |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter | Fox | Canceled |
| Terra Nova | Fox | Canceled |
| The Firm | NBC | Canceled |
| Free Agents | NBC | Canceled |
| Prime Suspect | NBC | Canceled |
| The Playboy Club | NBC | Canceled |
| Body Of Proof | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Missing | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| The River | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| A Gifted Man | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| Ringer | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| Alcatraz | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| Awake | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Bent | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Best Friends Forever | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Harry's Law | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Unforgettable | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Fringe | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| The Finder | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Are You There, Chelsea? | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Cougar Town | ABC | On The Bubble |
| GCB | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Private Practice | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: Miami | CBS | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rob | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Gossip Girl | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Secret Circle | CW | On The Bubble |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Napoleon Dynamite | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Up All Night | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| 90210 | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Touch | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Community | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Whitney | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Office | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Renewed |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Renewed |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Renewed |
| CSI | CBS | Renewed |
| The Good Wife | CBS | Renewed |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| The Mentalist | CBS | Renewed |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Renewed |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| Glee | Fox | Renewed |
| New Girl | Fox | Renewed |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| Grimm | NBC | Renewed |
| Smash | NBC | Renewed |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | Final Season |
| One Tree Hill | CW | Final Season |
| House | Fox | Final Season |
| Chuck | NBC | Final Season |
@SJ My mistake, I must have only been remembering the preliminary numbers. But nope. I honest can’t see this happening:
Modern Family: Average: 4.7 – Renewed
The Middle: Average: 2.7 – Renewed
Happy Endings: Average: 2.5 – Renewed
Suburgatory: Average: 2.7 – renewed
Bi.tch 23: Average: 2.6(thats a guess for what will happen in the 7 episodes) – renewed
LMS: Average: 2.2 (recently in the 1.8-2.0 area) – renewed
I honestly can see all of that happening accept for LMS. It just doesnt seem logical to me. Now i’m excited to see what ABC does lol
Btw its NYC Lover not NY Clover…hahaha
I have a question: Is abc going to choose between Apt 23 and Happy Endings?
or it doesn’t really matter?
@Brandy
What CW source are you talking about? The one on spoiler tv? The same one that says that GOSSIP GIRL is 100% safe while SPN is relatively safe?
Listen, no one knows what The CW will do. Craig said yesterday that filming for NIKITA ends this Friday(4/20) and that he’s pitching a Season 3 to CW execs next week. Nothing is set in stone and he won’t probably know about a renewal until a few days before upfronts. Like I said it’s nothing guaranteed but it also shows that they are at least still a bit interested in the direction of the show.
You keep comparing NIKITA’S 0.4 TO HoD’s 0.5 as if if they’re that FAR APART, news flash, THEY’RE NOT! Plus NIKITA airs on Fridays and HoD airs on Mondays. CW is in such a state right now that only 3 veteran dramas are performing solidly(TVD,SPN & 9O21O).
Flagship veterans like ANTM and GG are struggling to stay over 1 million viewers and they’ve lost double digits in their proclaimed Women demos.
Then you have the “Failing Freshman” dramas that show no promise of building an audience because they keep losing them(yeah yeah I know HoD lost the least amount of its audience). Hart of Dixie and RINGER both have two popular TV actresses (SMG and RB) that were supposed to bring good ratings “at best” and they can’t even do that. They’re both gone IMO and the only thing that will cause NIKITA’s cancellation is if CW moves TSC to Fridays(very likely)
And finally, there’s no proof (according to both Bill and Robert) that CW bases their renewals on Women and young adult demos. If that was the case, we’d be arguing over HELLCATS right now instead of NIKITA.
@NYClover
I honest can’t see this happening:
Modern Family: Average: 4.7 – Renewed
The Middle: Average: 2.7 – Renewed
Happy Endings: Average: 2.5 – Renewed
Suburgatory: Average: 2.7 – renewed
Bi.tch 23: Average: 2.6(thats a guess for what will happen in the 7 episodes) – renewed
LMS: Average: 2.2 (recently in the 1.8-2.0 area) – renewed
Where are you getting those numbers from?
Live+SD Season-to-date
Modern Family – 5.3
Happy Endings – 2.7
Suburgatory – 2.7
The Middle – 2.7
Last Man Standing – 2.5
Live+SD since 1 January
Modern Family – 4.9
Suburgatory – 2.5
The Middle – 2.5
Happy Endings – 2.4
Last Man Standing – 2.2
@Ultima those were averages I made up, just based on what i’ve seen throughout the season. Since they were around the same number, i don’t believe its a reason to make yourself look like a jerk in front of everyone.
I wish NBC would just burn off The Playboy Club episodes. I really liked that show and would love to see the remaining episodes. Why don’t they just burn them off?
i’ll be furious if PP gets cancelled. idc if its for a mid-season friday airing of 10 episodes at this point. it MUST get wrapped up, esp. since major things are happening these last 5 episodes.
scandal hasss to get renewed. it’s soooo good. and apparently big/crazy things are ahead. excited. don’t make scandal and PP an either/or situation ABC! they SHOULD, provided it doesn’t go under 1.7 anytime, renew scandal for a second 8-13 episode season and keep it after grey’s. if it does well, order more eps and use PP to replace a failed freshman drama. if not, replace it with PP mid-season. i would say put a new show after grey’s, but seeing as to how very few shows are compatible with grey’s and flopped behind it even during its biggest days, keeps thursdays shondaland night would be best.
is it too late for ABC to change GCB’s name to the full good christian belles? it would require zero effort since all they’d be doing is filling in the initials. thank goodness they didn’t re-name don’t trust the bitch in apartment 23 as “DTTBIA23″ thinking it had a good ring to it.
last bit of rambling: i REALLY hope ABC re-airs revenge and OUAT this summer. ESPECIALLY revenge. their summer schedule is drenched in reality TV. nobody needs that much weightloss or bachelor or whatever. putting the seasons online is helpful, but not nearly as much as re-airing on TV.
Sid, no but from someone who works in marketing at cw. Hellcats had 04-0.5 in demo though I’m unsure of the w18-34 but Nikita was renewed only because of the “freshman pity renewal” and cause Lux, Shedding for the Wedding,Hellcats were cancelled/Hellcats tanked last half of the season(2-3 cancellations were typical for cw especially when last year, cw was in better shape and could more afford to keep Nikita). Hart would Likley be doing much better if it wasn’t up against Voice, Bachelor, Dancing with Stars, 2.5 Men, but Nikita wasn’t doing good enough not put in the Fri death slot last year.
You have to be FU@@ING KIDDING ME that “WHITNEY” IS LIKELY TO BE RENEWED? Who in the hell do she screw to get that piece of UNFUNNY CRAP RENEWED, This is the biggest joke in the world no wonder NBC is in the crapper, BENT was so much funnier and they never gave it a shot. I`m FLOORED i just read this..UNREAL!!!!!!!!!!
I think CW should at least renew Nikita for a short season as back up if another show fails. I mean seriously what other show will the CW put on Friday at 8 that will do much better? TSC? It’s starting to hit .6 which isn’t much higher than Nikita and that’s after TVD.
The whole CW is low and I would say its all a toss up
The CW has to renew atleast 6 shows
SuperNatural
90210
Vampire diaries
The Secret circle
Nikita
Gossip Girl
Fox has to renew atleast 5 dramas
Bones
Fringe
Glee
The Finder (Ratings weren’t bad till Fridays)
Touch
“no but from someone who works in marketing at cw”
Who is this SOMEONE?! Does he/she have a name? Or better yet, do they even exist? This sounds like when you hear a story from a guys best friends sisters cousins mom. You never find out who the real person is, its just a he said, she said, they said story.
“Nikita was renewed only because of the “freshman pity renewal””
That and because CW needed a Friday drama to replace SMALLVILLE. I did say this is what will cause NIKITA’a cancellation this season because TSC IS FRIDAY BOUND(this season’s “freshman pity renewal” as you would say). There’s no place for Hart of Dixie next Season on a Mon-Wed schedule(especially if TSC gets the “freshman pity renewal” and is shipped off to Fridays).
“Hart would Likley be doing much better if it wasn’t up against Voice, Bachelor, Dancing with Stars, 2.5 Men, but Nikita wasn’t doing good enough not put in the Fri death slot last year.”
Every show has competition Brany; not just Hart of Dixie. Can anyone tell me if she’s using a @Fan Excuse Bingo because it sounds like she is?
@NYC lover
those were averages I made up, just based on what i’ve seen throughout the season. Since they were around the same number, i don’t believe its a reason to make yourself look like a jerk in front of everyone.
You go to a website dedicated to analyzing TV by the numbers, then you just make up numbers, then you call people names when they call you out on it.
Good luck with that.
General question for folks more knowledgeable than I: I know that advertising for first run shows is based on a promised rating level and that if the ratings don’t meet the promised level, the ads are cheaper. My question is, do they pay more than the set rate if the ratings are wildly above the promised level? And are ads during reruns the same rate as first run, or are they less (and is the amount they cost connected to the ratings or is it a flat fee)?
@NYC_lover
Yeah, but Last Man Standing doesn’t air in the Wednesday block. It gave them comedy presence on Tuesdays, for the first time in a long time. The mere position of the show on ABC’s schedule gives it a lot of goodwill from the network. That’s its biggest asset. Well, that and the fact that, for the 13 or so weeks that DWTS was off the air this winter it was the only thing on Tuesday night not to completely crumble in its absence.
@Bee
i REALLY hope ABC re-airs revenge and OUAT this summer. ESPECIALLY revenge.
Unfortunately, I see zero chance of that happening. Especially for Revenge. OUAT might get a few repeat airings in July/August, depending on how many Secret Millionaire episodes they’re doing, but Wednesdays at 10 are probably going to be occupied by that Primetime special that aired last summer, Beyond Belief or something like that. They avoid repeating their serialized dramas in the summer, so aside from comedy repeats (everything BUT Happy Endings and Apartment 23, obviously
) the only drama I’d expect to see in repeats in the summer is Castle.
Speaking of Happy Endings and Apartment 23, while ABC will certainly avoid repeating them, they’ll probably air the “missing” season 2 episode of HE and the remaining six episodes of A23.
Yes, every show has competition but Mon & Thurs are the most competitive nights of tv.There are also some shows like Voice, Dancing,Ncis, Idol, that absolutley no show stands a chance against, what’s Nikita’s exsuse for 04-0.5 with no competition?SPN does quite well for Fri, so why not Nikita?
@SJ That makes sense. I still feel like LMS will get cancelled, but i guess its really up in the air.
“Yes, every show has competition but Mon & Thurs are the most competitive nights of tv.There are also some shows like Voice, Dancing,Ncis, Idol, that absolutley no show stands a chance against, what’s Nikita’s exsuse for 04-0.5 with no competition?SPN does quite well for Fri, so why not Nikita?”
Brandy, NIKITA had tough competition last Season when it was on Thursdays(which is actually stated to be the most competitive night on network television. It faced Idol/Bones, Grey’s Anatomy, CSI and The Office.
Fridays may not be competitive but its a night where most people go out. CBS scores a maximum of 1.8 in A18-49 on Fridays. This is a network that has no problem reaching over a 3.5-4.0 on Mon-Th.
“SPN does quite well for Fri, so why not Nikita?”
SPN had SMALLVILLE and TVD as a lead-in for 6 seasons before it was shipped to Fridays. It was already established and it had a very strong following when moved there. NIKITA was moved there only in its second season.
And since your asking all the questions let me ask one, what is stopping Hart of Dixie from scoring a 0.6-0.7 on a Monday and SPN has no problem scoring that on a Friday?