Bubble Watch: The B in 'Apartment 23' Looks Good; 'Touch' Still Likely to Be Renewed; 'GCB' and 'Scandal' Remain on the Bubble

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 15th, 2012

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season

retentionistas be Damned, Early Signs Good for 'Apartment 23'

The premiere of Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 fared well enough to debut as "likely to be renewed." I'd have probably left it "on the bubble" for another couple of weeks, but it airs after a new Modern Family again next week and then after a Modern Family repeat on April 25. 'Apartment 23' would have to perform noticeably worse on April 25 than Happy Endings did out of Modern Family repeats to catch my eye, and I'll be surprised if that happens. Surprises happen though, so we'll just have to see.

Private Practice, Scandal and GCB on the bubble

For now I've still got Private Practice, Scandal and GCB all on the bubble. Of the three I give Private Practice an edge but that has more to do with its age than its ratings (it has two 2.1 ratings post Daylight Saving Time; hardly any better than GCB and Scandal did last week).

Missing Downgraded

At this point Missing's average is worse than The River's. Neither will be back on ABC next season.

Touch Still Likely to Be Renewed

Though I have little doubt Fox hoped for more out of Touch, if it levels off at around a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating (where it's been likely to be renewed), it's still likely to be renewed. Barely. Let the cries of "No fair! Fox should've aired Alcatraz after American Idol" begin.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

 

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Ringer CW Certain Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Best Friends Forever NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
Hart Of Dixie CW Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Private Practice ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
Touch Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • rob60990

    Happy Endings has the same average as The Middle & Suburgatory? Quite pathetic.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if ABC gave short season orders for Private Practice, Scandal, & GCB. Their drama development this season seems weak. Comedies look stronger.

  • Liz

    @Spencer

    Fox has to renew atleast 5 dramas

    Nonsense. With five returning dramas, three hours of singing reality, one hour of Gordon Ramsey, and one hour of sitcoms, that would mean that they would be debuting zero new dramas. Not going to happen.

    The Finder (Ratings weren’t bad till Fridays)

    Yes they were. They were still considerably below Fox’s network average.

  • Brandy

    Sid, the fact that it’s lead in(GG) is declining like crazy this and the fact that it’s up against The VoiCe, Dancing With The Stars ect.Id bet if Nikita were on Mon. It’d be doing 0.5 too but yes, it fell against Idol, Greys ect last season so it was moved.

  • Brandy

    And last time I checked 3 0.5s s is better than 8 0.5s and no 0.4 s is better than 2 0.4s.

  • HotLatino4GayMarriage

    Last Man Standing, likely renewal with a 1.9?

  • HotLatino4GayMarriage

    I was wrong I just checked, it got a 1.8! ABC shouldn’t renew it, it won’t grow next year.

  • Kyle

    I’d rather have GG and TSC cancelled and save Nikita and Ringer, then pairing them up in Fridays, where they skew more viewers.

  • Infante

    Apt. 23 is nothing but another Happy Endings. Nothing special about this damn show.

  • disney rocks

    Schedule for movies on Disney channel for 2 weeks. Really hoping disney reads these boards. 9 movies per day. 11 on Saturday and 8 on Sunday.

    Monday- Pocahontas, Poca 2, Mulan, Mulan 2, Pocahontas, Poca 2 (8:00, prime movie) , The cheetah girls, cheetah 2, cheetah one world

    Tuesday-Pinochio, Dumbo, Bambi, Bambi 2, Good luck charlie: it’s christmas, Geek Charming(8:00, prime movie), Frenemies, Avalon high, Den brother

    Wednesday- Frenemies, Den brother, Dumbo, Bambi, Bambi 2, High School Musical (8:00, prime movie), Geek Charming, Starstruck, Harriet the spy: blog wars

    Thursday- Good Luck Charlie: It’s Christmas, Avalon High, Chicken Little, Meet the Robinsons, High school Musical 2 (8:00, prime movie), The suite life movie, Pinochio, sleeping beauty, The Little Mermaid

    Friday- Beauty and the beast, beauty and the beast: enchanted christmas, the suite life movie, Lemonade Mouth, High School Musical 3 (8:00, prime movie), Mulan, Mulan 2, Phineas and Ferb: The Movie: across the 2nd dimension, Radio Rebel

    Saturday (9Am start; 11 movies)- Snow white and the seven dwarfs, Sleeping beauty, The Little Mermaid, Lemonade Mouth, Radio Rebel, Chicken Little, meet the robinsons, Snow White and the seven dwarfs, Sleeping beauty (7:30, prime movie), The Little Mermaid, Phineas and Ferb: across the 2nd dimension

    Sunday- (9Am start time; 9 movies)- Snow White and the seven swards, Sleeping beauty, The Little mermaid, Beauty and the beast, Beauty and the beast enchanted christmas, Snow White and the seven dwarfs, Sleeping beauty, The Little Mermaid

    Monday- Starstruck, Harriet the spy: blog wars, Halloweentown, Halloweentwon 2, Halloweentown High , Halloweentown 4 (8:00, prime movie), My babysitter’s a vampire, Beauty and the beast, beauty and the beast enchanted christmas

    Tuesday- Snow White and the seven dwarfs, My babysitter’s a vampire, Twitches, Twitches too, My babysitter’s a vampire (8:00, prime movie), Twitches, Twitches too, My babysitter’s a vampire, Snow White and the seven dwarfs

    Wednesday- Snow White and the seven dwarfs, The Little Mermaid, Sleeping beauty, Snow White and the seven dwarfs, Cinderella (8:00, prime movie), Halloweentwon, Halloweentown 2, Halloweentown High, Halloweentown 4

    Thursday- My babysitter;s a vampire, Twitches, Twitches too, Ratatouille, Up (8:00, prime movie), Cinderella, Snow White and the seven dwarfs, The Little mermaid, Sleeping Beauty

    Friday- Ratatouille, Up, Snow White and the seven dwarfs, Cinderella, The Princess and the frog (8:00, prime movie), Up, Ratatouille, Snow White and the seven dwarfs, Cinderella

    Saturday- Camp Rock, Camp Rock 2, The Little mermaid, The Little Mermaid sequel, the other little mermaid sequel, Sleeping Beauty, The Princess and the frog, Camp Rock, Camp Rock 2 (7:30, prime movie), beauty and the beast, beauty and the beast enchanted christmas

    Sunday- Snow White and the seven dwarfs, Cinderella, sleeping beauty, the little mermaid,beauty and the beast, the princess and the frog, High School Musical, High school musical 2, High school Musical 3

    Maybe the princess movies (example- snow white) aire too much. Oh well.

  • Sarah

    @Liz

    “@Spencer

    ‘The Finder (Ratings weren’t bad till Fridays)’

    ‘Yes they were. They were still considerably below Fox’s network average.’”

    I agree, especially with AI before it.

  • Jane Elliot

    @Johnny: From what I understand, TVbtN consistently has a much higher accuracy rate when predicting show renewals than TV Line.

  • Michael

    Question: Besides, Once Upon A Time was there a breakout hit launched in the 2011-2012 TV year?

  • disney rocks

    I’m having fun fake-scheduling. So here’s the their week-

    Monday- Halloweentown, Halloweentown 2, Halloweentown High, Halloweentown 4, Twitches (8:00, prime movie), Twitches too, High school musical, High school Musical 2, High school Musical 3

    Tuesday- High school musical, High school Musical 2, High school musical 3, The Luck of the Irish (8:00, prime movie), The Suite Life movie, Geek Charming, Lemonade Mouth, Camp Rock, Camp Rock 2

    Wednesday- Twitches, Twitches too, Up, Ratatouille, Wall-E (8:00, prime movie), Toy Story, Toy Story 2, Monsters incorporated, A bug’s life

    Thursday- Toy Story, Toy Story 2, Wall-E, A bug’s Life, Monsters incorporated(8:00, prime movie), Up, Ratatouille, Toy Story, Toy Story 2

    Friday- Dadnapped, Hatching Pete, Princess protection program, Toy Story, Toy Story 2 (8:00, prime movie), Dadnapped, Hatching Pete, Princess protection program, Minute Men

    Saturday- Minute Men, Dadnapped, Princess protection program, Hatching Pete, 16 wishes, The Luck of the Irish, Aladin, The Princess and the frog, Princess Protection program (7:30, prime movie), 16 wishes, The Luck of the Irish

    Sunday- The Princess and the frog, Aladdin, Aladdin sequel, 2nd Aladdin sequel, Toy Story, Toy Story 2, A bug’s Life, Monsters incorporaed

    Good scheduling, huh? I like movies.

  • Liz

    @Michael

    Question: Besides, Once Upon A Time was there a breakout hit launched in the 2011-2012 TV year?

    Once Upon a Time isn’t the highest-rated new show of the season. Both 2 Broke Girls and New Girl have higher averages. It’s not even the highest-rated new drama; I believe Person of Interest has a higher average.

  • Michael

    Liz, thanks for the confirmation. I just feel like overall, this was a bad year to launch new shows, IMO.

  • Liz

    Quoting myself:

    I believe Person of Interest has a higher average.

    Let it not be said that I can’t admit when I’m wrong.

    Once Upon a Time’s average is still above Person of Interest’s. So Once Upon a Time is the biggest new drama hit, but not the biggest hit.

  • The End

    @Johnny

    Personally I find tvline to be as reliable as Mikey aka Bondoel predicting Nikita being renewed.

    I find TVBythenumbers aka Robert and Bill to be a much better and possibly the most reliable/best place online to see show predictions.

    Put it this way, Robert and Bill are more credible than pretty much everyone here. Except those in the industry who have access to info they don’t, but then again that’s cheating :P

  • Big Toe

    I am a HUGE fan of Fringe and I want a fifth and final season SOOOOOO bad. At least if it gets canceled, they filmed two endings: an ending and a cliffhanger.

  • CrimTV

    I don’t understand why Last Man Standing is a likely renewal, didn’t it get like a 1.7 last week and has been getting around 2.0 ratings for a while, I thought it would be a bubble show

  • Bunny

    @Johnny

    TVline reported that ABC was on the verge of renewing 9 shows and an announcement will soon follow..so far nothing..even the writers and producers were surprised and only heard the news from Michael Ausello…

    so….TVBYN > TVline all the way

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