When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season
retentionistas be Damned, Early Signs Good for 'Apartment 23'
The premiere of Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 fared well enough to debut as "likely to be renewed." I'd have probably left it "on the bubble" for another couple of weeks, but it airs after a new Modern Family again next week and then after a Modern Family repeat on April 25. 'Apartment 23' would have to perform noticeably worse on April 25 than Happy Endings did out of Modern Family repeats to catch my eye, and I'll be surprised if that happens. Surprises happen though, so we'll just have to see.
Private Practice, Scandal and GCB on the bubble
For now I've still got Private Practice, Scandal and GCB all on the bubble. Of the three I give Private Practice an edge but that has more to do with its age than its ratings (it has two 2.1 ratings post Daylight Saving Time; hardly any better than GCB and Scandal did last week).
Missing Downgraded
At this point Missing's average is worse than The River's. Neither will be back on ABC next season.
Touch Still Likely to Be Renewed
Though I have little doubt Fox hoped for more out of Touch, if it levels off at around a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating (where it's been likely to be renewed), it's still likely to be renewed. Barely. Let the cries of "No fair! Fox should've aired Alcatraz after American Idol" begin.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| Charlie's Angels | ABC | Canceled |
| Man Up | ABC | Canceled |
| Pan Am | ABC | Canceled |
| Work It | ABC | Canceled |
| How To Be A Gentleman | CBS | Canceled |
| Allen Gregory | Fox | Canceled |
| Breaking In | Fox | Canceled |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter | Fox | Canceled |
| Terra Nova | Fox | Canceled |
| The Firm | NBC | Canceled |
| Free Agents | NBC | Canceled |
| Prime Suspect | NBC | Canceled |
| The Playboy Club | NBC | Canceled |
| Body Of Proof | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Missing | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| The River | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| A Gifted Man | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| Ringer | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| Alcatraz | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| Awake | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Bent | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Best Friends Forever | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Harry's Law | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Unforgettable | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Fringe | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| The Finder | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Are You There, Chelsea? | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Cougar Town | ABC | On The Bubble |
| GCB | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Private Practice | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: Miami | CBS | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rob | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Gossip Girl | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Secret Circle | CW | On The Bubble |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Napoleon Dynamite | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Up All Night | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| 90210 | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Touch | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Community | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Whitney | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Office | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Renewed |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Renewed |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Renewed |
| CSI | CBS | Renewed |
| The Good Wife | CBS | Renewed |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| The Mentalist | CBS | Renewed |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Renewed |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| Glee | Fox | Renewed |
| New Girl | Fox | Renewed |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| Grimm | NBC | Renewed |
| Smash | NBC | Renewed |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | Final Season |
| One Tree Hill | CW | Final Season |
| House | Fox | Final Season |
| Chuck | NBC | Final Season |
Happy Endings has the same average as The Middle & Suburgatory? Quite pathetic.
I wouldn’t be surprised if ABC gave short season orders for Private Practice, Scandal, & GCB. Their drama development this season seems weak. Comedies look stronger.
@Spencer
Fox has to renew atleast 5 dramas
Nonsense. With five returning dramas, three hours of singing reality, one hour of Gordon Ramsey, and one hour of sitcoms, that would mean that they would be debuting zero new dramas. Not going to happen.
The Finder (Ratings weren’t bad till Fridays)
Yes they were. They were still considerably below Fox’s network average.
Sid, the fact that it’s lead in(GG) is declining like crazy this and the fact that it’s up against The VoiCe, Dancing With The Stars ect.Id bet if Nikita were on Mon. It’d be doing 0.5 too but yes, it fell against Idol, Greys ect last season so it was moved.
And last time I checked 3 0.5s s is better than 8 0.5s and no 0.4 s is better than 2 0.4s.
Last Man Standing, likely renewal with a 1.9?
I was wrong I just checked, it got a 1.8! ABC shouldn’t renew it, it won’t grow next year.
I’d rather have GG and TSC cancelled and save Nikita and Ringer, then pairing them up in Fridays, where they skew more viewers.
Apt. 23 is nothing but another Happy Endings. Nothing special about this damn show.
Schedule for movies on Disney channel for 2 weeks. Really hoping disney reads these boards. 9 movies per day. 11 on Saturday and 8 on Sunday.
Monday- Pocahontas, Poca 2, Mulan, Mulan 2, Pocahontas, Poca 2 (8:00, prime movie) , The cheetah girls, cheetah 2, cheetah one world
Tuesday-Pinochio, Dumbo, Bambi, Bambi 2, Good luck charlie: it’s christmas, Geek Charming(8:00, prime movie), Frenemies, Avalon high, Den brother
Wednesday- Frenemies, Den brother, Dumbo, Bambi, Bambi 2, High School Musical (8:00, prime movie), Geek Charming, Starstruck, Harriet the spy: blog wars
Thursday- Good Luck Charlie: It’s Christmas, Avalon High, Chicken Little, Meet the Robinsons, High school Musical 2 (8:00, prime movie), The suite life movie, Pinochio, sleeping beauty, The Little Mermaid
Friday- Beauty and the beast, beauty and the beast: enchanted christmas, the suite life movie, Lemonade Mouth, High School Musical 3 (8:00, prime movie), Mulan, Mulan 2, Phineas and Ferb: The Movie: across the 2nd dimension, Radio Rebel
Saturday (9Am start; 11 movies)- Snow white and the seven dwarfs, Sleeping beauty, The Little Mermaid, Lemonade Mouth, Radio Rebel, Chicken Little, meet the robinsons, Snow White and the seven dwarfs, Sleeping beauty (7:30, prime movie), The Little Mermaid, Phineas and Ferb: across the 2nd dimension
Sunday- (9Am start time; 9 movies)- Snow White and the seven swards, Sleeping beauty, The Little mermaid, Beauty and the beast, Beauty and the beast enchanted christmas, Snow White and the seven dwarfs, Sleeping beauty, The Little Mermaid
Monday- Starstruck, Harriet the spy: blog wars, Halloweentown, Halloweentwon 2, Halloweentown High , Halloweentown 4 (8:00, prime movie), My babysitter’s a vampire, Beauty and the beast, beauty and the beast enchanted christmas
Tuesday- Snow White and the seven dwarfs, My babysitter’s a vampire, Twitches, Twitches too, My babysitter’s a vampire (8:00, prime movie), Twitches, Twitches too, My babysitter’s a vampire, Snow White and the seven dwarfs
Wednesday- Snow White and the seven dwarfs, The Little Mermaid, Sleeping beauty, Snow White and the seven dwarfs, Cinderella (8:00, prime movie), Halloweentwon, Halloweentown 2, Halloweentown High, Halloweentown 4
Thursday- My babysitter;s a vampire, Twitches, Twitches too, Ratatouille, Up (8:00, prime movie), Cinderella, Snow White and the seven dwarfs, The Little mermaid, Sleeping Beauty
Friday- Ratatouille, Up, Snow White and the seven dwarfs, Cinderella, The Princess and the frog (8:00, prime movie), Up, Ratatouille, Snow White and the seven dwarfs, Cinderella
Saturday- Camp Rock, Camp Rock 2, The Little mermaid, The Little Mermaid sequel, the other little mermaid sequel, Sleeping Beauty, The Princess and the frog, Camp Rock, Camp Rock 2 (7:30, prime movie), beauty and the beast, beauty and the beast enchanted christmas
Sunday- Snow White and the seven dwarfs, Cinderella, sleeping beauty, the little mermaid,beauty and the beast, the princess and the frog, High School Musical, High school musical 2, High school Musical 3
Maybe the princess movies (example- snow white) aire too much. Oh well.
@Liz
“@Spencer
‘The Finder (Ratings weren’t bad till Fridays)’
‘Yes they were. They were still considerably below Fox’s network average.’”
I agree, especially with AI before it.
What does TVline.com know that tvbythenumbers doesn’t? Just this week, they upgraded Fringe’s renewal chances from “A Safe Bet” to “A Sure Thing”. Surely that’s a good sign?
@Johnny: From what I understand, TVbtN consistently has a much higher accuracy rate when predicting show renewals than TV Line.
Question: Besides, Once Upon A Time was there a breakout hit launched in the 2011-2012 TV year?
I’m having fun fake-scheduling. So here’s the their week-
Monday- Halloweentown, Halloweentown 2, Halloweentown High, Halloweentown 4, Twitches (8:00, prime movie), Twitches too, High school musical, High school Musical 2, High school Musical 3
Tuesday- High school musical, High school Musical 2, High school musical 3, The Luck of the Irish (8:00, prime movie), The Suite Life movie, Geek Charming, Lemonade Mouth, Camp Rock, Camp Rock 2
Wednesday- Twitches, Twitches too, Up, Ratatouille, Wall-E (8:00, prime movie), Toy Story, Toy Story 2, Monsters incorporated, A bug’s life
Thursday- Toy Story, Toy Story 2, Wall-E, A bug’s Life, Monsters incorporated(8:00, prime movie), Up, Ratatouille, Toy Story, Toy Story 2
Friday- Dadnapped, Hatching Pete, Princess protection program, Toy Story, Toy Story 2 (8:00, prime movie), Dadnapped, Hatching Pete, Princess protection program, Minute Men
Saturday- Minute Men, Dadnapped, Princess protection program, Hatching Pete, 16 wishes, The Luck of the Irish, Aladin, The Princess and the frog, Princess Protection program (7:30, prime movie), 16 wishes, The Luck of the Irish
Sunday- The Princess and the frog, Aladdin, Aladdin sequel, 2nd Aladdin sequel, Toy Story, Toy Story 2, A bug’s Life, Monsters incorporaed
Good scheduling, huh? I like movies.
@Michael
Question: Besides, Once Upon A Time was there a breakout hit launched in the 2011-2012 TV year?
Once Upon a Time isn’t the highest-rated new show of the season. Both 2 Broke Girls and New Girl have higher averages. It’s not even the highest-rated new drama; I believe Person of Interest has a higher average.
Liz, thanks for the confirmation. I just feel like overall, this was a bad year to launch new shows, IMO.
Quoting myself:
I believe Person of Interest has a higher average.
Let it not be said that I can’t admit when I’m wrong.
Once Upon a Time’s average is still above Person of Interest’s. So Once Upon a Time is the biggest new drama hit, but not the biggest hit.
@Johnny
Personally I find tvline to be as reliable as Mikey aka Bondoel predicting Nikita being renewed.
I find TVBythenumbers aka Robert and Bill to be a much better and possibly the most reliable/best place online to see show predictions.
Put it this way, Robert and Bill are more credible than pretty much everyone here. Except those in the industry who have access to info they don’t, but then again that’s cheating
I am a HUGE fan of Fringe and I want a fifth and final season SOOOOOO bad. At least if it gets canceled, they filmed two endings: an ending and a cliffhanger.
I don’t understand why Last Man Standing is a likely renewal, didn’t it get like a 1.7 last week and has been getting around 2.0 ratings for a while, I thought it would be a bubble show