When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season
retentionistas be Damned, Early Signs Good for 'Apartment 23'
The premiere of Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 fared well enough to debut as "likely to be renewed." I'd have probably left it "on the bubble" for another couple of weeks, but it airs after a new Modern Family again next week and then after a Modern Family repeat on April 25. 'Apartment 23' would have to perform noticeably worse on April 25 than Happy Endings did out of Modern Family repeats to catch my eye, and I'll be surprised if that happens. Surprises happen though, so we'll just have to see.
Private Practice, Scandal and GCB on the bubble
For now I've still got Private Practice, Scandal and GCB all on the bubble. Of the three I give Private Practice an edge but that has more to do with its age than its ratings (it has two 2.1 ratings post Daylight Saving Time; hardly any better than GCB and Scandal did last week).
Missing Downgraded
At this point Missing's average is worse than The River's. Neither will be back on ABC next season.
Touch Still Likely to Be Renewed
Though I have little doubt Fox hoped for more out of Touch, if it levels off at around a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating (where it's been likely to be renewed), it's still likely to be renewed. Barely. Let the cries of "No fair! Fox should've aired Alcatraz after American Idol" begin.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| Charlie's Angels | ABC | Canceled |
| Man Up | ABC | Canceled |
| Pan Am | ABC | Canceled |
| Work It | ABC | Canceled |
| How To Be A Gentleman | CBS | Canceled |
| Allen Gregory | Fox | Canceled |
| Breaking In | Fox | Canceled |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter | Fox | Canceled |
| Terra Nova | Fox | Canceled |
| The Firm | NBC | Canceled |
| Free Agents | NBC | Canceled |
| Prime Suspect | NBC | Canceled |
| The Playboy Club | NBC | Canceled |
| Body Of Proof | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Missing | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| The River | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| A Gifted Man | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| Ringer | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| Alcatraz | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| Awake | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Bent | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Best Friends Forever | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Harry's Law | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Unforgettable | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Fringe | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| The Finder | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Are You There, Chelsea? | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Cougar Town | ABC | On The Bubble |
| GCB | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Private Practice | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: Miami | CBS | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rob | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Gossip Girl | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Secret Circle | CW | On The Bubble |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Napoleon Dynamite | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Up All Night | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| 90210 | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Touch | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Community | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Whitney | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Office | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Renewed |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Renewed |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Renewed |
| CSI | CBS | Renewed |
| The Good Wife | CBS | Renewed |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| The Mentalist | CBS | Renewed |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Renewed |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| Glee | Fox | Renewed |
| New Girl | Fox | Renewed |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| Grimm | NBC | Renewed |
| Smash | NBC | Renewed |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | Final Season |
| One Tree Hill | CW | Final Season |
| House | Fox | Final Season |
| Chuck | NBC | Final Season |
Here is the problem with NBC – Shows with Series Finales [2011-12]
Desperate Housewives ABC
One Tree Hill CW
House MD Fox
Chuck NBC
Desperate Housewives and House MD (8 Seasons each) made their respective networks lost of money and are also doing (relatively) well internationally, with Lost (6 seasons) and 24 (8 seasons) also ending a year ago.
OTH has 9 seasons and while it’s ratings are low, it can be argued that it did better than Chuck’s 5 seasons. Smallville ended after 10 seasons while Heroes ended with 4 seasons.
Since the end of Law & Order (20 Seasons), Friends (10 Seasons), ER (15 Seasons), Fraiser (11 Seasons), NBC can no longer generate enough product – only SVU 13 Seasons and The Office 8 Seasons remain (in terms of value). 30 Rock was always rated low, and Community/Parks & Recreation will end next year.
Last Man Standing WILL be renewed and anyone denying it is just kidding themselves. I wouldn’t say that TGIF has no chance of coming back. I actually see it having a high chance of being resurrected. Shark Tank and WWYD don’t have longevity. They would not do 1.6′s being run from September-May, by March they would be boring and lose viewers. They only work because they are on for a short few months not the entire season. So I don’t think they will be cancelled, but just being held back for failed time slots. Maybe run them in December, they would probably do pretty decent.
But if I was running ABC, I would cancel the Dancing with the Stars results show. That is the only way to FIX Tuesdays. That is the only thing that stands in between ABC and a winning Tuesday. If they find a 4 comedy+drama hit like ABC has found on Wednesdays then they will become a real contender on Tuesdays. As long as the results show airs on Tuesdays between the 8-10 hour then Tuesdays will always be ABC’s disaster night. Moving it to 10pm would be another option, but I see that unlikely and specifically unlikely because I think ABC should try to find a breakout drama for this slot to help strengthen tuesdays even more and it is the weakest slot in broadcast right now with CBS and NBC having the hardest time finding shows that can even hit a 2.0, so if ABC finds a good soapy drama like Revenge or even Private Practice if it delivers this spring on Tuesdays, ABC will have a great Tuesday schedule, I just hope Paul Lee realizes this.
tvline is the site that first broke that Warner Bros. and FOX were “in negotiations” for a potential fifth season, though. They seem to be the most “in the know” when it comes to such negotiations and such. They very well could be hearing good news that just hasn’t gone public yet (and probably won’t until the upfronts).
@Tony – Still disagree with TGIF. You’re looking at spending perhaps $4 million a week, on 4 sitcoms (and maybe even more $$$), to get similar ratings to two shows that perhaps cost $500,000 each? Will never happen. As CBS has demonstrated recently, there is very little upside to running scripted content on Friday.
I don’t think TGIF is out of the question for ABC but I only see an hour at best likely at 8 with Shark Tank and What Would You Do sharing the 9pm hour.
@rob60990 I agree I could really see Paul Lee test the waters at 8-9 to see how it would rate and then adjust accordingly the following season to a full 8-10 block if it scores good. and there’s clearly an audience on Fridays, I think sitcoms would be it just like how it was in the 90s. the perfect Friday sitcom combo would clearly be Tim Allen and Reba.
But I think Reba’s sitcom leads Tuesday at 8 into Last Man Standing at 8:30. That’s what I would do.
It looks like a “competitor” is running free advertisement on TVbtN disguised as commentary.
Sid, youre kidding right?freshman shows ALWAYs have a lead in, the most promising/hyped/promted new shows are put after the highest rated shows.Freshman shows neeed a lead in to get momemuntum for the first season(example Secret Circle got VD & SC wouldnt be doing as well rating wise if it didnt have VDs lead in).
@Doug Oh I’m sorry I didn’t know CBS ran their best scripted shows on Fridays. Oh wait they don’t. People act like great scripted shows won’t pull ratings on Friday which couldn’t be farther from the truth. If Modern Family was moved to Friday it would pull high ratings. If Big Bang Theory or How I Met Your Mother was moved to Fridays, they would get good ratings.Why? Because I’m a firm believer that if it’s good, they will come. If it’s bad then they won’t. I like a lot of other people see no reason to watch tv on Fridays because to me, they’re all bad shows mostly of the drama and reality tv type which are boring to me. I like comedy on my Fridays. Any great sitcom can draw on Fridays without a doubt but I’ve yet to see a comedy worth watching on Fridays since, well TGIF of course.
“Sid,youre kidding right?freshman shows ALWAYs have a lead in, the most promising/hyped/promted new shows are put after the highest rated shows.Freshman shows neeed a lead in to get momemuntum for the first season(example Secret Circle got VD & SC wouldnt be doing as well rating wise if it didnt have VDs lead in)”
TVD premiered on Thursdays @ 8p(2009), 9O21O premiered on Tuesday @ 8p(2008), H8R premiered on Wednesday @ 8p (2011) and many other shows on other networks including Last Man Standing(Tues @8p-ABC), Once upon a Time (Sun @8p-ABC)to name a few. Do you see where I’m going with this or are you still confused?
TSC could of self-started if CW had wanted to but they put TSC after TVD because they were looking for a “sister show/companion” for TVD.
^^
Also, I forgot to add that sometimes shows that do get a solid lead-in(THE SECRET CIRCLE) still fail regardless. If no one is interested, you can’t do much about that.
I’m so sick and tired of Hart fans complaining about their lead-in. Last Fall, Hart did a .8 and .9, better than GG. Meaning it didn’t matter what lead- in it had. Those people representing that .8 and .9 didn’t want to come back and it had nothing to do with Gossip Girl. Plus, last week with half hours, Gossip did .5 for whole hour, while Hart dropped to .4. Is that Gossip Girls fault? absolutely not.
Sid, I truly believe CW only used that women’s demo for GG. GG and 90210 had practically the same demo both in overall and in women yet GG got 20k higher in ad rate????? So basically that demo was brought in to save GG, will they use it for HART- i DOUBT IT.
Brandy, who is this person in marketing? I know an intern at CW, maybe he will know this person. But from what I hear no decision will be made until all pilots are viewed. And they wont cancel Secret Circle when its average demo is better than most of the network apart from Vampire Diaries, CW needs to make money and average demo is important.
“Sid, I truly believe CW only used that women’s demo for GG. GG and 90210 had practically the same demo both in overall and in women yet GG got 20k higher in ad rate????? So basically that demo was brought in to save GG, will they use it for HART- i DOUBT IT.”
For GOSSIP GIRL, it was getting HUGE WOMEN DEMOS(I’m talking an average of 2.8-3.7 for W18-34). I don’t think 9O21O was that high but it was’t far behind either.
However, 9O21O and GOSSIP GIRL weren’t saved because of this. Both shows were always performing “okay” in the A18-49 demo and “much-better” compared to other shows on the network(like 90210 this season which was below the pack during the fall).
The only thing that will save GOSSIP GIRL this season is because it’s CW’s signature show and its revenue for Warner Brothers. I can’t think of anything else. Mark Wood was talking about some Income Index thing a few days ago but I don’t really know what that means?
Sid, I just meant that I don’t believe that W18-34 will save Hart like it has GG, nor will it bring it a better ad rate
^thats what Natalia meant I think* fixed
Sarah, yeah that’s what I meant. And I didn’t even know Gossip did that well in w18-34, but yeah from what I remember last year 90210 wasnt far behind. Any new news on cancellations/ renewals, Sarah?
^they wont decide until pilots are viewed, that’s all I know. The guy’s an intern so he only hears the gossip around work so he doesn’t have more details except that
“Sid, I just meant that I don’t believe that W18-34 will save Hart like it has GG, nor will it bring it a better ad rate”i
It won’t work because Hart of Dixie’s main demo(A18-49) isn’t all that great.