When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season
retentionistas be Damned, Early Signs Good for 'Apartment 23'
The premiere of Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 fared well enough to debut as "likely to be renewed." I'd have probably left it "on the bubble" for another couple of weeks, but it airs after a new Modern Family again next week and then after a Modern Family repeat on April 25. 'Apartment 23' would have to perform noticeably worse on April 25 than Happy Endings did out of Modern Family repeats to catch my eye, and I'll be surprised if that happens. Surprises happen though, so we'll just have to see.
Private Practice, Scandal and GCB on the bubble
For now I've still got Private Practice, Scandal and GCB all on the bubble. Of the three I give Private Practice an edge but that has more to do with its age than its ratings (it has two 2.1 ratings post Daylight Saving Time; hardly any better than GCB and Scandal did last week).
Missing Downgraded
At this point Missing's average is worse than The River's. Neither will be back on ABC next season.
Touch Still Likely to Be Renewed
Though I have little doubt Fox hoped for more out of Touch, if it levels off at around a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating (where it's been likely to be renewed), it's still likely to be renewed. Barely. Let the cries of "No fair! Fox should've aired Alcatraz after American Idol" begin.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| Charlie's Angels | ABC | Canceled |
| Man Up | ABC | Canceled |
| Pan Am | ABC | Canceled |
| Work It | ABC | Canceled |
| How To Be A Gentleman | CBS | Canceled |
| Allen Gregory | Fox | Canceled |
| Breaking In | Fox | Canceled |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter | Fox | Canceled |
| Terra Nova | Fox | Canceled |
| The Firm | NBC | Canceled |
| Free Agents | NBC | Canceled |
| Prime Suspect | NBC | Canceled |
| The Playboy Club | NBC | Canceled |
| Body Of Proof | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Missing | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| The River | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| A Gifted Man | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| Ringer | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| Alcatraz | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| Awake | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Bent | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Best Friends Forever | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Harry's Law | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Unforgettable | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Fringe | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| The Finder | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Are You There, Chelsea? | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Cougar Town | ABC | On The Bubble |
| GCB | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Private Practice | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: Miami | CBS | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rob | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Gossip Girl | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Secret Circle | CW | On The Bubble |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Napoleon Dynamite | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Up All Night | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| 90210 | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Touch | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Community | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Whitney | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Office | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Renewed |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Renewed |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Renewed |
| CSI | CBS | Renewed |
| The Good Wife | CBS | Renewed |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| The Mentalist | CBS | Renewed |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Renewed |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| Glee | Fox | Renewed |
| New Girl | Fox | Renewed |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| Grimm | NBC | Renewed |
| Smash | NBC | Renewed |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | Final Season |
| One Tree Hill | CW | Final Season |
| House | Fox | Final Season |
| Chuck | NBC | Final Season |
@Chris – if they have a good scripted sitcom, they’ll air it on Tuesdays or Wednesdays where it can maximize its audience. CBS has just picked off their 8pm scripted hour (and I doubt it will be back in the fall), ABC has been unscripted all season, I wouldn’t be surprised if NBC moves Grimm to another night, and Fox, well, there are clearly other motivations with Fringe.
ABC already tried to revive TGIF, in case you guys don’t remember, and it lasted for about 3 seasons. When it pulled the plug, the comedies were averaging a 2.0 demo rating, and this was back in 2006. TGIF won’t happen, unless it’s burn-offs – too expensive for too little return. You guys can try to convince yourselves all you want.
Sid, Hellcats had first Top Model then 90210(i think), Privileged was on Tues with 90210 efore its move to Fri, Melrose Place had 90210,Beautiful Life had TopModel,Remodeled had OTH, SPN had VD then SMVon cw on wb at first it had gilmore girls,Nikita had VD,Life Unexpected had OTH in season two,GG season one at least had Top Model.Ringer had 90210, LA Complex will have 90210. Hart of Dixie has GG. Secret Circle has VD. .90210 was a franchise and supoosed to be q self starter(it had the highest premiere on cw ever)& VD is a hugley popular book series &was supposed to be a self starter(which it was). All freshman shows but VD&90210 had established, deccently rated lead ins.
Also, in regards to GG as a lead in, its declined from 0.7 to 0.5 and barley a million viewers in one season, you think thats gonna help the show(freshman or not) that airs after it? No!
Brandy, how were CW suppose to know that GG will crash this year? At least Hart has a lead in that is comparable. Look at Ringer that has 90210- no comparison thus no similar audience.
Plus, in the Fall GG did .6 while Hart brought in .8 and even a .9. See, Hart doesn’t need good lead in when it brought in the viewers itself. Those people didn’t want to return and it had nothing to do with GG. Go on forums and blogs and a lot of people have said they left Hart because it turned into a typical CW show with its love triangle. Is that Gossip Girls fault?
And where is this marketing person you know? Sarah knows an intern and nothing like you said has been discussed. You must have gotten confused with a predictions table or something
@Brandy
You’re still missing the point; you’re starting to sound like Mikey/Bondoel and you’re really freaking me out with this whole lead-in story.
HELLCATS: Top Model/ONE TREE HILL as a lead-in; CANCELLED!
) : CANCELLED!
Privileged: 9O21O as a lead-in for its entire 18 episode run; CANCELLED!
MELROSE PLACE: 9O21O as a lead-in for its entire 18 episode run; CANCELLED!
The Beautiful Life: Top Model as a lead-in for two episodes; CANCELLED!
REMODELED: 9O21O/ONE TREE HILL as a lead-in for its entire run; CANCELLED!
Life Unexpected: ONE TREE HILL for its entire run: CANCELLED!
RINGER: 9O21O for “most of its run(
SUPERNATURAL: Gilmore Girls/SMALLVILLE/TVD: Airing its 7th Season.
NIKITA: TVD as a lead-in: Airing its 2nd Season.
GOSSIP GIRL: Top Model for only 13 episodes: Airing its 5th Season.
THE SECRET CIRCLE: TVD as a lead-in: TBD
THE LA COMPLEX: 9O21O as a lead0in: TBD
Now look at the separation for a minute. HELLCATS, LIFE UNEXPECTED, TBL, MELROSE PLACE, Privileged had lead-ins that were “ratings juggernauts by CW standards” during their run and they still got the axe. REMODELED AND RINGER had lead-ins that were solid at best and they’re likely cancelled as well.
Only 3 CW shows that had lead-ins survived past Season 1. What’s your point exactly?
“90210 was a franchise and supoosed to be q self starter(it had the highest premiere on cw ever)& VD is a hugley popular book series &was supposed to be a self starter(which it was).”
MELROSE PLACE is a part of that same franchise but premiered at 9p. GOSSIP GIRL is a popular book series but premiered at 9p as well?
Plus, Gossip Girl and Melrose Place did not have high profile actors like Bilson or King btw. Heck, look at nikita- non of their stars can get into red carpet events or interviews yet its doing the same as Hart.
Brandy, who is this person in marketing? I know an intern at CW, maybe he will know this person. But from what I hear no decision will be made until all pilots are viewed. And they wont cancel Secret Circle when its average demo is better than most of the network apart from Vampire Diaries, CW needs to make money and average demo is important.
The fact SPN is changing show runners is a clue the show is or has already been renewed behind the scenes. (No intern is gonna know the details of that)
TSC- Is a complete failure to the CW period! It got a lot of promotion a cushy time slot and didn’t deliver, when a Friday show does the same as the Thursday show with little to no promotion I say Houston we have a problem..
Ringer- Is a complete failure period! They hyped up SMG big return and the show didn’t deliver. They actually said SMG was the OMG of marketing for the show this year, lol I think that backfired.
HOD- TO be honest got little to no promotion, but came out head of the pack. It was doing fine before the break, but as usual it took a dive when it came back…
I would say the CW keep HOD and pair it with First Cut next season
I believe there is a lot of behind the scenes politics and maneuvers at work that no one knows about, including someone in Marketing and an intern.
The only place I trust for anything going on is Deadline Hollywood Daily
everywhere else it’s pure gossip.
But in reality I think Ringer, HOD and Either Nikita or TSC are gone! Hell they could shock everyone and cancel GG or 90210 lol
Anyone underwhelmed or even liked the pilot of Apt 23 — This weeks second episode is LAUGH OUT LOUD HILARIOUS — I mean, on the level of Friends, and I do not make that comparison lightly. I saw it online thinking it was the pilot, but second episode is not to be missed and plus it’s the return of Revenge this wed!!!!
wtf? Fringe already renewed. UK site wrote it.
tvline is the site that first broke that Warner Bros. and FOX were “in negotiations”
This “news” first “broke” last May. After the “negotiations” for a season 4 had ended.
Seriously, do some of you work for Ausiello? His site sucks. EW is better for entertainment news, TVBTN is always better for Renewal/Cancellation and ratings news.
Everybody tell your friends REVENGE is coming THIS Wednesday.
It’s essentially a new season and you can jump right in from this episode.
Revenge is HOT.
Am I missing something but wasn’t Nikita getting around a 1.1-.9 last season? And now TSC is getting .8-.6. How was Nikita a pity renewal last season?
I hope that 90210, Scandal, Parenthood and Private Practice get renewed. Doesn’t look so good for Missing and A Gifted Man though
@Justin121
Well said, both Bill and Robert do a fantastic job here. They’ve more than earnt the title of best ratings website around.
wtf? Fringe already renewed. UK site looking for page views already jumped the gun on it.
There. Fixed that for you.
Ram, nikita got a 0.7 for its season one finale , it premiered at over 2_3 million viewer, it lost a lot of its audience s plus the fact that like SC this year, it lost half of VDs audience in both total viewers and demo.Networks always renew one freshman show.Also Life Unexpected did 0.7s in season two and was cancelled, thats why Nikita got the “pity freshman renewal.”
Also, Ram last season a 0.7 or lower was cancellation worth cause cw was in much better shape then..If I remeber right cw only premiere two new fall shows(nikita & Hellcats) last year and if Hellcats hadnt tanked due to night/time change, nikita wouldve been the one cancelled and in years past cw only cancelled 2_3 shows a year_ last year it was Lux, Hellcats, Shedding for the Wedding meeting that quota.
I’m still interested in knowing how Private Practice has two 2.1 ratings post-DST when only one first-run episode has aired since the switch to DST. Anyone?
wow… only 6 tv shows are “certain renewal” what a mess!