Bubble Watch: The B in 'Apartment 23' Looks Good; 'Touch' Still Likely to Be Renewed; 'GCB' and 'Scandal' Remain on the Bubble

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 15th, 2012

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season

retentionistas be Damned, Early Signs Good for 'Apartment 23'

The premiere of Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 fared well enough to debut as "likely to be renewed." I'd have probably left it "on the bubble" for another couple of weeks, but it airs after a new Modern Family again next week and then after a Modern Family repeat on April 25. 'Apartment 23' would have to perform noticeably worse on April 25 than Happy Endings did out of Modern Family repeats to catch my eye, and I'll be surprised if that happens. Surprises happen though, so we'll just have to see.

Private Practice, Scandal and GCB on the bubble

For now I've still got Private Practice, Scandal and GCB all on the bubble. Of the three I give Private Practice an edge but that has more to do with its age than its ratings (it has two 2.1 ratings post Daylight Saving Time; hardly any better than GCB and Scandal did last week).

Missing Downgraded

At this point Missing's average is worse than The River's. Neither will be back on ABC next season.

Touch Still Likely to Be Renewed

Though I have little doubt Fox hoped for more out of Touch, if it levels off at around a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating (where it's been likely to be renewed), it's still likely to be renewed. Barely. Let the cries of "No fair! Fox should've aired Alcatraz after American Idol" begin.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

 

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
Ringer CW Certain Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Best Friends Forever NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
Hart Of Dixie CW Likely Cancellation
Fringe Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Private Practice ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
Touch Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • Brandy

    Sid, Hellcats had first Top Model then 90210(i think), Privileged was on Tues with 90210 efore its move to Fri, Melrose Place had 90210,Beautiful Life had TopModel,Remodeled had OTH, SPN had VD then SMVon cw on wb at first it had gilmore girls,Nikita had VD,Life Unexpected had OTH in season two,GG season one at least had Top Model.Ringer had 90210, LA Complex will have 90210. Hart of Dixie has GG. Secret Circle has VD. .90210 was a franchise and supoosed to be q self starter(it had the highest premiere on cw ever)& VD is a hugley popular book series &was supposed to be a self starter(which it was). All freshman shows but VD&90210 had established, deccently rated lead ins.

  • Brandy

    Also, in regards to GG as a lead in, its declined from 0.7 to 0.5 and barley a million viewers in one season, you think thats gonna help the show(freshman or not) that airs after it? No!

  • Natalia

    Brandy, how were CW suppose to know that GG will crash this year? At least Hart has a lead in that is comparable. Look at Ringer that has 90210- no comparison thus no similar audience.
    Plus, in the Fall GG did .6 while Hart brought in .8 and even a .9. See, Hart doesn’t need good lead in when it brought in the viewers itself. Those people didn’t want to return and it had nothing to do with GG. Go on forums and blogs and a lot of people have said they left Hart because it turned into a typical CW show with its love triangle. Is that Gossip Girls fault?

  • Natalia

    And where is this marketing person you know? Sarah knows an intern and nothing like you said has been discussed. You must have gotten confused with a predictions table or something

  • Sid

    @Brandy

    You’re still missing the point; you’re starting to sound like Mikey/Bondoel and you’re really freaking me out with this whole lead-in story.

    HELLCATS: Top Model/ONE TREE HILL as a lead-in; CANCELLED!
    Privileged: 9O21O as a lead-in for its entire 18 episode run; CANCELLED!
    MELROSE PLACE: 9O21O as a lead-in for its entire 18 episode run; CANCELLED!
    The Beautiful Life: Top Model as a lead-in for two episodes; CANCELLED!
    REMODELED: 9O21O/ONE TREE HILL as a lead-in for its entire run; CANCELLED!
    Life Unexpected: ONE TREE HILL for its entire run: CANCELLED!
    RINGER: 9O21O for “most of its run( ;) ) : CANCELLED!

    SUPERNATURAL: Gilmore Girls/SMALLVILLE/TVD: Airing its 7th Season.
    NIKITA: TVD as a lead-in: Airing its 2nd Season.
    GOSSIP GIRL: Top Model for only 13 episodes: Airing its 5th Season.

    THE SECRET CIRCLE: TVD as a lead-in: TBD
    THE LA COMPLEX: 9O21O as a lead0in: TBD

    Now look at the separation for a minute. HELLCATS, LIFE UNEXPECTED, TBL, MELROSE PLACE, Privileged had lead-ins that were “ratings juggernauts by CW standards” during their run and they still got the axe. REMODELED AND RINGER had lead-ins that were solid at best and they’re likely cancelled as well.

    Only 3 CW shows that had lead-ins survived past Season 1. What’s your point exactly?

  • Sid

    “90210 was a franchise and supoosed to be q self starter(it had the highest premiere on cw ever)& VD is a hugley popular book series &was supposed to be a self starter(which it was).”

    MELROSE PLACE is a part of that same franchise but premiered at 9p. GOSSIP GIRL is a popular book series but premiered at 9p as well?

  • Natalia

    Plus, Gossip Girl and Melrose Place did not have high profile actors like Bilson or King btw. Heck, look at nikita- non of their stars can get into red carpet events or interviews yet its doing the same as Hart.

  • Freyja


    Brandy, who is this person in marketing? I know an intern at CW, maybe he will know this person. But from what I hear no decision will be made until all pilots are viewed. And they wont cancel Secret Circle when its average demo is better than most of the network apart from Vampire Diaries, CW needs to make money and average demo is important.

    The fact SPN is changing show runners is a clue the show is or has already been renewed behind the scenes. (No intern is gonna know the details of that)

    TSC- Is a complete failure to the CW period! It got a lot of promotion a cushy time slot and didn’t deliver, when a Friday show does the same as the Thursday show with little to no promotion I say Houston we have a problem..

    Ringer- Is a complete failure period! They hyped up SMG big return and the show didn’t deliver. They actually said SMG was the OMG of marketing for the show this year, lol I think that backfired.

    HOD- TO be honest got little to no promotion, but came out head of the pack. It was doing fine before the break, but as usual it took a dive when it came back…

    I would say the CW keep HOD and pair it with First Cut next season ;)

    I believe there is a lot of behind the scenes politics and maneuvers at work that no one knows about, including someone in Marketing and an intern. ;)

    The only place I trust for anything going on is Deadline Hollywood Daily ;) everywhere else it’s pure gossip.

    But in reality I think Ringer, HOD and Either Nikita or TSC are gone! Hell they could shock everyone and cancel GG or 90210 lol

  • tom

    Anyone underwhelmed or even liked the pilot of Apt 23 — This weeks second episode is LAUGH OUT LOUD HILARIOUS — I mean, on the level of Friends, and I do not make that comparison lightly. I saw it online thinking it was the pilot, but second episode is not to be missed and plus it’s the return of Revenge this wed!!!!

  • scifi

    wtf? Fringe already renewed. UK site wrote it.

  • Justin121

    tvline is the site that first broke that Warner Bros. and FOX were “in negotiations”

    This “news” first “broke” last May. After the “negotiations” for a season 4 had ended.

    Seriously, do some of you work for Ausiello? His site sucks. EW is better for entertainment news, TVBTN is always better for Renewal/Cancellation and ratings news.

    Everybody tell your friends REVENGE is coming THIS Wednesday.

    It’s essentially a new season and you can jump right in from this episode.

    Revenge is HOT.

  • Ram510

    Am I missing something but wasn’t Nikita getting around a 1.1-.9 last season? And now TSC is getting .8-.6. How was Nikita a pity renewal last season?

  • Melanie

    I hope that 90210, Scandal, Parenthood and Private Practice get renewed. Doesn’t look so good for Missing and A Gifted Man though :(

  • The End

    @Justin121

    Well said, both Bill and Robert do a fantastic job here. They’ve more than earnt the title of best ratings website around.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    wtf? Fringe already renewed. UK site looking for page views already jumped the gun on it.

    There. Fixed that for you.

  • Brandy

    Ram, nikita got a 0.7 for its season one finale , it premiered at over 2_3 million viewer, it lost a lot of its audience s plus the fact that like SC this year, it lost half of VDs audience in both total viewers and demo.Networks always renew one freshman show.Also Life Unexpected did 0.7s in season two and was cancelled, thats why Nikita got the “pity freshman renewal.”

  • Brandy

    Also, Ram last season a 0.7 or lower was cancellation worth cause cw was in much better shape then..If I remeber right cw only premiere two new fall shows(nikita & Hellcats) last year and if Hellcats hadnt tanked due to night/time change, nikita wouldve been the one cancelled and in years past cw only cancelled 2_3 shows a year_ last year it was Lux, Hellcats, Shedding for the Wedding meeting that quota.

  • EZM

    I’m still interested in knowing how Private Practice has two 2.1 ratings post-DST when only one first-run episode has aired since the switch to DST. Anyone?

  • buttondiet

    wow… only 6 tv shows are “certain renewal” what a mess!

  • David

    @buttondiet

    You must have missed the list of 23 shows that have already been renewed. The “certain renewal” list is short because so many early renewals have already been announced.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures