Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 15, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Pan Am* | canceled | 0.42 |
| Charlie's Angels * | canceled | 0.48 |
| Work It! * | canceled | 0.61 |
| Cougar Town |  |
0.65 |
| Body Of Proof* |  |
0.66 |
| Man Up * | canceled | 0.66 |
| The River* | |
0.66 |
| Missing | |
0.67 |
| GCB | |
0.80 |
| Scandal | |
0.82 |
| Castle |  |
0.88 |
| Last Man Standing | |
0.91 |
| Private Practice | |
0.94 |
| Happy Endings |  |
1.00 |
| Revenge | |
1.01 |
| Suburgatory | |
1.01 |
| The Middle | |
1.02 |
| Desperate Housewives | final season | 1.03 |
| Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 | |
1.19 |
| Once Upon A Time | |
1.28 |
| Grey's Anatomy | |
1.44 |
| Modern Family | |
2.03 |
-
While the retentionistas are likely howling, a decent ratings start for Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 has it debut as "likely to be renewed", but predictions based on early ratings are subject to change rapidly. Stay tuned.
Following the ratings loser Titanic special, GCB fell to a series low 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. The trigger happy would predict it likely to be canceled now, but since it had a string of prior non-dreadful ratings, I'm not so quick to move it from a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.
Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
-
- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012 - - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
“Is Last Man Standing still looking good for renewal? It seems like its last 3-5 episodes its been less than 90% of ABC’s new show average and heading downward but maybe that’s just my perception.”
Only 2 new LMS aired in the last 6 weeks. Each was 90% or better than the ABC avg for the week.
If memory serves me right, Bill said way back in November that Happy Endings would also get renewed, retentionistas be damned. I believe he said to “Beware exploding heads!” Now I hope Apartment 23 doesn’t slip and tumble into the same danger zone as HE next season.
Bringing the game to the new thread (not a vote):
GCB – 21
CASTLE – 25
REVENGE – 21
DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 18
THE MIDDLE – 17
ONCE UPON A TIME – 25
MODERN FAMILY – 20
APARTMENT 23 – 19
Another crazy abc 2012-2013 schedule:
Monday:
8-10pm- DWTS/(8-Devious Maids/9-Zero Hour)/DWTS
10pm- Castle
Tuesday
8pm DWTS / (The Smart One/Malibu Country)/DWTS
9pm LMS
9:30pm Only Fools and Horses or Red Van Man
10 pm Last Resort
Wednesday
8pm The Middle
8:30pm Subergatory
9pm Modern Family
9:30pm American Judy/Happy Endings
10pm Apt 23
10:30pm Prairie Dogs/Cougar Town
Thursday
8pm Scruples or Gilded Lily’s (probably Scruples though because it is less expensive and a lower risk)
9pm Grey’s Anatomy
10pm Private Practice/Scandal
Friday
same
Sunday
7pm AFHV
8pm OUAT
9pm 666 Park Ave or Beauty and the Beast or Gotham
10pm Revenge (15-20 episodes playing through to February)/Penoza (10-13) (February into May)
2012-13 Schedule
Sunday
8:00 Once Upon a Time
9:00 Beauty and the Beast
10:00 GCB
Monday
8:00 DTWS
10:00 Castle
Tuesday
8:00 Apt 23
8:30 Pairie Dogs
9:00 Counter Culture
9:30 Happy Endings
10:00 DTWS Results Show
Wednesday
8:00 The Middle
8:30 Suburgatory
9:00 Modern Family
9:30 Last Man Standing
10:00 Revenge
Thursday
8:00 Wipeout: Fall Edition
9:00 Grey’s
10:00 Scandal
Friday
8:00 Malibu Country
8:30 Awesometown
9:00 The Manzanis
9:30 How to Live with Your Parents for the Rest of Your Life
10:00 20/20
Hey Bill,
Forgot to mention this a few weeks ago but with Summer Glau appearing on Grey’s Anatomy, should everyone just pack up and leave due to her almost impeccable track record of being on cancelled shows?!
Here’s my schedule for next year:
Monday
8:00 – Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor
10:00 – Devious Maids
Tuesday
8:00 – Last Man Standing
8:30 – Malibu Country
9:00 – Happy Endings
9:30 – Apartment 23 (22 episodes)/ American Judy (6 episodes)
10:00 – Dancing with the Stars results/ Gilded Lillys (8 episodes)
Wednesday
8:00 – The Middle
8:30 – Suburgatory
9:00 – Modern Family
9:30 – The Family Trap (22 episodes)/The Smart One (6 episodes)
Thursday
8:00 – Private Practice
9:00 – Gray’s Anatomy
10:00 – Last Resort
Sunday
8:00 – Once Upon a Time
9:00 – 666 Park Ave.
10:00 – Castle
@Joe: Impeccable? Summer Glau appeared once on Alphas, and they renewed it.
Avery I do not see Apt 23 being scheduled at 8pm ever. Putting aside PTC aside, Apt 23 is not appropriate to show at the 8pm hour, unless ABC tones down the show, which would be a mistake.
Also to whoever was making jokes about conservatives and GCB/Apt 23, I consider myself a conservative, or least a libertarian version of a conservative. I think Apt 23 is comedy gold and GCB is absolute garbage, so trust me I will not squirm one bit if Apt 23 is kept around.
@Avery
Tuesday
8:00 Apt 23
8:30 Pairie Dogs
9:00 Counter Culture
9:30 Happy Endings
10:00 DTWS Results Show
Why are so many people trying to push this DWTS Results Show at 10 thing? It doesn’t make any sense.
A much more realistic solution would be moving it up to 8, then having a two-hour comedy block from 9-11 (likely with Apt 23 and Happy Endings filling the 10pm hour).
PP musttt get renewed. all these teases i keep hearing about the final 5 episodes and the finale are getting me so excited. shonda’s very clearly not wrapping up so ABC better not cancel!
@tvfreak: hence the word almost before impeccable
@tvfreak
In the current issue of TVGuide on news stands, on page 75 there is a pic of Stana Katic (Beckett) I think you’ll like. Basically the last page of the issue, with the horoscopes. I rarely buy magazines but this one is the “Fan Favorites” winners cover, with OUAT, Community, SPN, The Voice and Fringe casts on the cover. Good little article on page 18, too, about Castle & Beckett being picked as “favorite couple” (who’s not a couple yet, lol). Tim Allen got “favorite comeback” for LMS, and OUAT got “favorite new show & villain.” I bought this issue. Last issue I bought had a lot of OUAT stuff in it (good stuff).
Don’t Trust The B was a horrible piece of crap. I barely made it to the first commercial break. It deserves to get cancelled.
@Ultima
because it makes the MOST sense. comedies at 10 rarely work out, and having the results show during the 8-10 hours is not letting them establish tuesdays. putting the results on at 10 would solve all those problems because it is a lot easier to put a drama or reality show in the 10 pm slot following comedies than it would be in the 8 pm slot and the results show would definitely do pretty good at 10pm for ABC.
So, like, what are the odds that ABC has forgotten they haven’t announced early renewals yet? Because, at this point, it’s just irritating.
I’ve been seeing around Twitter that the start date for production of OUAT season 2 is July 16. On the other hand, I can’t track down a source for that info, so, y’know, grains of salt and all that.
I think ABC should try out comedies at 10pm. Apt 23 is funny, but for a show like that to survive when it is constantly pushing the limits of acceptable 9pm hour television, it is better to have Apt 23 lead a 10pm hour comedy line-up rather then risk paying FCC fines or ruin the show by making it more family friendly.
Knowing that the PTC hates Apt 23 makes me wish I liked it, I just did not find it funny at all. Although I’m willing to give it a few more episodes.
I can’t see a Tuesday comedy block with an hour of multi-cam family comedies then an hour of younger skewing single cam friends comedies working.
I think ABC needs to shake up Thursdays. Grey’s will likely last 2 more seasons the most and they will need a new anchor. At least on Sundays with Desperate Housewives ending, they’ll have Once Upon a Time which they can pair with one of their 3 sci-fi dramas in development.
BOP looks like it’s gone. If they somehow keep Missing, I think it could do well in BOP’s slot midseason if nothing works out there in the fall.
@ Fred
Wow, really? I like everyone else on that show more than I like Zooey. I think the roommates and her BFF make that show what it is. The whole Zooey shtick gets old after 10 episodes. Though seeing Zooey play the blondes role in Apt 23 might actually be funny.
@Lizam didn’t ABC and NBC try airing comedies at 10 p.m. last season and it was a failure.
I think Apt 23 should air on Tuesdays after Dancing with the Stars, and then Happy Endings should follow Apt 23.
Apt 23 so far to me is way better then New Girl, and right now it airing right before Revenge works perfect for me.