CW: Somehow, I Must Create A New Headline About 'Nikita' Or 'Hart Of Dixie' Being Canceled, Maybe Both

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 17th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 15, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Ringer :cry: :cry: 0.67
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.70
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.80
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.80
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.97
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 1.04
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
One Tree Hill final season 1.09
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.83

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The end is near, but not near enough for my headline writing imagination in these weekly CW posts.

Writing these posts with no new news and the same three at risk shows in the headline has made it ever more difficult to come up with something new. Instead, I settled on something the Google searchers will appreciate.

Don't suggest I headline a post with "Something Will Be Renewed". Relatively nobody searches for that. ;)

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “GG actors are contracted through season six”

    That, in itself, is meaningless to any prediction. All those contracts are subject to renewal of the show.

  • zee

    Thank you Dan!

  • Liz

    @KS

    Do you really think, TVD, a teenage girl drama will survive anywhere else on network TV?

    While its best days are behind it, Glee was a monster on at its height network TV, particularly because of its appeal to young women.

    I don’t watch The Vampire Diaries, but thinking that it can’t be successful elsewhere because it appeals to young women is ridiculous. And please spare us your blather about how it’s for simple-minded ninnies while another certain CW show is for truly deep thinkers.

    Get over yourself.

  • Sid

    Thank you BILL!

  • Tariq

    The Secret Circle is more likely to be cancelled than hart of dixie

    Dixie does better in women demos and doesnt have a huge leadin like the secret circle which will collapse without VD

  • buttondiet

    Why does GG have 0.8 and 4 smileys yet HoD has 0.8 and 3 frownies? That makes no sense!

  • matty B

    Arrow is the most anticipated new show for next year i belive that show is going to do well

  • KS

    @Liz

    I have google searched many words to understand your post.

    Let us see, how long Glee will survive. TVD has got more disadvantages than Glee. Glee is a comedy. TVD is to attract teens and early twenty girls, unlike Glee, which attracts women upto early 30s. And its a musical and hence probably watched by many music lovers.

    Whatever I say is not blather. That’s a proven fact and its obvious to any person with white and gray mater in their cranium. If those girls who watch TVD now after some 10 years, if they watch Supernatural, they will understand what’s better and would regret for the time they have wasted watching these Vampire shows and movies.

    By the way, I didn’t say that TVD will not survive any where else because I hate it. But definitely it would not be the highest rated show.

    Even though I am a hardcore fan of Supernatural, I have the balls to accept the fact that, Supernatural would not have survived past 4/5 seasons, if it were on another network. Also let us see if Glee and TVD will go on for 8 seasons or will be hunted and burnt of ceiling very soon.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Why does GG have 0.8 and 4 smileys yet HoD has 0.8 and 3 frownies? That makes no sense!”

    GG veteran show. CW in the past has given veteran shows a final shortened season.

    HoD, a rookie show with little to no future.

    “The Secret Circle is more likely to be cancelled than hart of dixie”

    Nonsense.

    “and doesnt have a huge leadin like the secret circle which will collapse without VD”

    Retentionista!

  • Sid

    “Why does GG have 0.8 and 4 smileys yet HoD has 0.8 and 3 frownies? That makes no sense!”

    Gossip Girl’s average is only .05(0.85) away from CW’s scripted shows to be likely renewed. Being that The CW loves to give veteran dramas a “nice send-ff”, CW will most likely renew it over Hart of Dixie.

  • KS

    @Bill or some rating experts here

    I would like to know, if the advertisement rates are decided according to season average rating or the pattern of which the ratings fall is also looked at.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill or some rating experts here

    I would like to know, if the advertisement rates are decided according to season average rating or the pattern of which the ratings fall is also looked at.”

    The projected rates for *next* season are likely a combination of average, trend, spring ratings and the sales ability of a given network’s sales force ;)

  • Nick

    What the CW should do in the fall:

    Mon-
    Gossip Girl (13 ep. final season)/ new mid-season comedy block
    Hart of Dixie

    Tue-
    90210
    Arrow (New)

    Wed-
    The Secret Circle
    The Selection (new)

    Thu-
    TVD
    Beauty and the Beast (new)

    Fri-
    Local Programming

    Sat-
    Local Programming

    Sun-
    America’s Next Top Model
    Nikita
    Supernatural

    Hart of Dixie will only get renewed so the CW doesn’t have to change its whole Monday as well as Wed, Fri, and Sunday.
    The CW does need big changes, such as comedies.

  • Liz

    @KS

    TVD is to attract teens and early twenty girls, unlike Glee, which attracts women upto early 30s.

    Prove it. Give me a chart that lays out exactly how the audience for The Vampire Diaries splits. Give me a percentage for under-18, 18-24, 18-34, and 18-49. Until you can give me numbers, then this

    That’s a proven fact

    is bull.

    And its a musical and hence probably watched by many music lovers.

    Yes. That explains why Glee the Movie made so much more money than Twilight and why Smash is rated higher than True Blood. Oh wait, none of that is true. Seriously, do you just say things and hope that they’re true without bothering to check first?

  • Jason

    Is there any possible way that Ringer could actually be renewed for another season? I do like the show, but I’m not disillusion–I’m taking tonight for a series finale. But, in all honesty, is there even a possibility of a renewal out there for some reason or another?

  • Steve

    I’d just like to say I am a guy and I watch TVD. I know a few other guys that watch the show as well. Does is predominately have a more woman in its fanbases? Yes. I can’t deny that. Men do watch the show though. TVD and Nikita (rip, im not a delusional fan but I am praying) are the only shows I watch on The CW. Once upon a time Supernatural as well but i gave up on that show a while back.

    Right now, I watch more Cable TV than anything. White Collar, Burn Notice, Franklin Bash, Haney Project, and more

  • Adrian

    I still think Ringer and Nikita are goners. Why renew anything getting 0.4 when repeats of VD or SPN can get the same 0.4? HOD has no where to go but down and it’s only in its first season so they might as well cancel it. TSC will survive because the CW can’t afford that many new shows, but like I say every week, without a major overhaul I won’t get past season 2.

    As for pilots I think Arrow and Selection are a sure thing, I hope Carrie does horribly at test screening and isn’t picked.
    As for the others, I hope they pick First Cut and B&B. Shelter might have a shot by grabbing the OTH fanbase but it could end up being a flop as well. I lost all interest in Cult when I saw it was produced by Schwartz and co.

  • KS

    @Liz

    I just know the facts I mentioned. I can’t give any proof for that. May be whatever you said are true. I honestly didn’t check any facts.
    That is why I used “may be” and “probably” in my previous post.

    But, I don’t know how to express, but something tells me, TVD is not going to be as successful as what it is now, if it were on another network. It would be an average show.

    Let us not get into this TVD vs SPN debate. Even Supernatural fans, who post here, hate this debate. I want to respect other SPN fans, I don’t want to go any further. But, for one last time SPN >>>> TVD ;)

    As far as Glee is concerned,
    I suggest you to visit CNN.com(world edition) and check the entertainment news periodically. Glee is the only TV show I find in entertainment news headlines. That much is the attention Glee gets for the reason God knows why. If a national news channel does that, I am sure, Glee must be the favorite of many more entertainment websites. And thus obviously gets a great promotion besides the promtion given by FOX. No wonder Glee has good ratings.

    I am being honest here again. I don’t visit CNN.com for entertainment news per Se, but to check political news sometimes I happen to see the entertainment news column. So, there are chances that I might be wrong.

  • KS

    @Steve

    Nina Dobrev is damn hot and sexy. Just saying.

  • Jess

    I still think Ringer and Nikita are done. Do people REALLY think (with the horrid ratings they already have) the CW is going to RISK having to pick Nikita for two seasons when it’s ALREADY struggling. That literally makes no sense. They’re likely to pick HOD over Nikita for the simple fact that if it underperforms they can cancel it without having to worry about syndication rights and etc. And look at last night’s ratings it seems to be doing well.

    I like Nikita but let’s be serious. The CW would be beyond stupid to renew that show when 90% of their shows are already struggling in the ratings.

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