ABC: Even If ‘Private Practice’ Tuesday Ratings Stink, Expect A Final Season Renewal Attempted
Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Charlie’s Angels *||canceled||0.48|
|Work It! *||canceled||0.61|
|Cougar Town||:| :| :|||0.64|
|Body Of Proof*||:oops:||0.66|
|Man Up *||canceled||0.66|
|GCB||:| :| :|||0.80|
|Scandal||:| :| :|||0.82|
|Castle||:) :) :) :)||0.88|
|Last Man Standing||:) :) :) :)||0.89|
|Private Practice||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|Suburgatory||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.99|
|Revenge||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.00|
|Happy Endings||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.01|
|The Middle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.03|
|Desperate Housewives||final season||1.04|
|Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23||:) :) :) :)||1.13|
|Once Upon A Time||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.28|
|Grey’s Anatomy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.44|
|Modern Family||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||2.00|
When Private Practice hit a series low 1.7 rating in its new Tuesday 10pm timeslot last week some viewers freaked out. Understandably so. That ratings level is typically associated with a danger of cancellation on ABC. However, my guess is that no matter how woeful the ratings are during the brief Tuesday run of PP this Spring, ABC will try and engineer a deal to bring the show back for what might be its final season next year.
That’s not to say such a deal is certain. I thought ABC would do the same for a final season of Brothers & Sisters (and they reportedly tried), but didn’t get a deal done.
The observant will note that I’ve moved Revenge up to certain to be renewed. That may hit the headline in a future week, but I wanted to get PP in this week.
Don’t Trust The B—- In Apt. 23 fell only slightly in its second episode. It’s still likely to be renewed.
Following the ratings loser Titanic special, GCB fell to a series low 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. The trigger happy would predict it likely to be canceled now, but since it had a string of prior non-dreadful ratings, I’m not so quick to move it from a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation. I’m still waiting to see how it does in its next new episode.
Why is Cougar Town just a “toss up” with its dreadful ratings instead of “likely to be canceled” or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I’m keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a “toss up” because of potential syndication related benefits.
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.