ABC: Even If 'Private Practice' Tuesday Ratings Stink, Expect A Final Season Renewal Attempted

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Missing :oops: 0.65
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.89
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.92
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Desperate Housewives final season 1.04
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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When Private Practice hit a series low 1.7 rating in its new Tuesday 10pm timeslot last week some viewers freaked out. Understandably so. That ratings level is typically associated with a danger of cancellation on ABC. However, my guess is that no matter how woeful the ratings are during the brief Tuesday run of PP this Spring, ABC will try and engineer a deal to bring the show back for what might be its final season next year.

That's not to say such a deal is certain. I thought ABC would do the same for a final season of Brothers & Sisters (and they reportedly tried), but didn't get a deal done.

The observant will note that I've moved Revenge up to certain to be renewed. That may hit the headline in a future week, but I wanted to get PP in this week.

Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 fell only slightly in its second episode. It's still likely to be renewed.

Following the ratings loser Titanic special, GCB fell to a series low 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. The trigger happy would predict it likely to be canceled now, but since it had a string of prior non-dreadful ratings, I'm not so quick to move it from a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. I'm still waiting to see how it does in its next new episode.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Marcos

    if Brothers & Sisters didnt get, Private Practice the hell wont get it

  • rob60990

    “if Brothers & Sisters didnt get, Private Practice the hell wont get it”

    B&S was not a Shonda Rhimes show and had an actress named Sally Field.

  • Common Anomaly

    When did Bill Gorman get so soft? Do you know what this country used to sit through? Murphy Brown, Mythbusters, ALF. Being funny? That’s not what this show is all about. Kouger Town. Move it down or get out of the way.

  • S.

    The numbers PP put until the move, and the fact that PP was the only ABC show improving during it’s season to date average during the fall would warrant that it earned the renewal.

    The question is that ABC despises PP. Only Cougartown got less promotion from the network this season than PP. The official facebook and Twitter accounts are unmanned, until fans complain to them about posting the sneak peeks. The last time anything was posted on the facebook account that was not prompted by fans complaining was promo for Scandal.

    I think Paul Levi might be doing what McPherson did in 2005, and get rid of almost everything but Grey’s, Revenge, UOaT, and Castle on the drama side, and MF, Middle, LSM and Suburgatory, on the comedy side.

    8-9 pm on Thursday likely to be given to comedy, and that would mean that in the fall ABC would be premiering 4 new dramas and 4 new comedies.

    He will have no trouble in finding in the 24 pilots ordered by ABC material to fill the slots. We know how low his standards are, Charlie’s Angels and Work it, anyone?

  • R.G.

    Let’s not forget that last year Brothers & Sisters had a season finale that fitted well as a series finale with no cliffhangers and that kind of stuff. That was one of the reasons that abc didn’t care much about a shortened final season. I’m sure that they will have that in mind when it’s time for a decision.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Let’s not forget that last year Brothers & Sisters had a season finale that fitted well as a series finale with no cliffhangers and that kind of stuff. That was one of the reasons that abc didn’t care much about a shortened final season. “

    That had nothing to do with the decision, whatsoever.

  • Skylar

    GCB has been mistreated by ABC with the terrible scheduling. I think overall its definitely doing better than Scandal.

  • Jonathas

    Do you really think that ‘Happy Endings’ is still ‘Certain to be renewed” even with its awful ratings in the end of the season?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Do you really think that ‘Happy Endings’ is still ‘Certain to be renewed” even with its awful ratings in the end of the season?”

    Apparently I do, since that’s what’s in the table.

    And Happy Endings “terrible” ratings have only gone below 90% of ABC’s 18-49 weekly average *once*. Not what I’d call terrible.

  • zerg

    Monday:
    8-9 DWTS/Bachelor
    10 New Drama ( Scruples,Devoius Maids)

    Tuesday
    8 LMS
    8.30 New Comedy or CT,AP23
    9 DWTS ( new drama)
    10 new drama

    WEnsday same..9.30 new comedy

    Thursday:
    8 Castle
    9 Grey’s ( final season?)
    10 PP( if renewed) Scandal (midseason) new shonda’s drama
    Friday same

    Sunday:
    8 OUAT
    9 new drama 666 Park’s Avenue,Last Resort..abc’s best drama pilots,although there is tough cable competition
    10 New drama or GCB

    HE,AP23 replace fail show

  • still good shows on tv

    Happy Endings was the only new show on wednesday’s for ABC at the end of its season. If you put any sitcom other than MF and 9:30 during that period it wouldn’t have done much better, maybe not even as good.

  • were123

    Really happy Revenge being certain renewal, love that show!

  • Nitish

    if Private Practice continues to underperform a ‘Certain to be Cancelled’ Body of Proof (which I watched), i would think the most hopeful expectation would be a shortened farewell season behind Grey’s Anatomy

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “if Private Practice continues to underperform a ‘Certain to be Cancelled’ Body of Proof (which I watched), i would think the most hopeful expectation would be a shortened farewell season behind Grey’s Anatomy”

    If they do an announced final season, I’d be virtually certain that it does not follow Grey’s Anatomy. No reason to put it there vs. a new show.

  • Bob

    I believe that they have enough shows that can be, have been, and will be cancelled including Missing, Body of Proof and The River that GCB and Scandal should be saved. As far as Cougar Town goes, I think they should save it for another mid-season and then be done with it. Why not give it another 13 episodes to conclude the series. I watched it once and was not that interested but some people like it. It seems as if they will cancel 6 dramas this season which will allow them to make room for one more 13 episodes of Private Practice. I am so thrilled to see Revenge with 5 Stars! Is this the first time?

  • Brian

    Please ABC; renew OUAT, Revenge, GCB, and Scandal now :)

  • rob60990

    “As far as Cougar Town goes, I think they should save it for another mid-season and then be done with it. Why not give it another 13 episodes to conclude the series.”

    It’s a comedy. It doesn’t need 13 episodes to wrap up anything. Any renewal it gets will be to get it to syndication.

  • Nitish

    re: Private Practice renewal
    i meant ‘most hopeful expectation’ as the ‘best the fans could hope for’

  • Marsinvestigations1

    B&S had issues. ABC wanted a short season order and a deal couldn’t be reached with the talent. My guess is the same won’t happen w PP and they will get a final season.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “B&S had issues. ABC wanted a short season order and a deal couldn’t be reached with the talent. My guess is the same won’t happen w PP and they will get a final season.”

    My understanding and my conclusions, exactly.

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