ABC: Even If 'Private Practice' Tuesday Ratings Stink, Expect A Final Season Renewal Attempted

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Missing :oops: 0.65
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.89
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.92
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Desperate Housewives final season 1.04
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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When Private Practice hit a series low 1.7 rating in its new Tuesday 10pm timeslot last week some viewers freaked out. Understandably so. That ratings level is typically associated with a danger of cancellation on ABC. However, my guess is that no matter how woeful the ratings are during the brief Tuesday run of PP this Spring, ABC will try and engineer a deal to bring the show back for what might be its final season next year.

That's not to say such a deal is certain. I thought ABC would do the same for a final season of Brothers & Sisters (and they reportedly tried), but didn't get a deal done.

The observant will note that I've moved Revenge up to certain to be renewed. That may hit the headline in a future week, but I wanted to get PP in this week.

Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 fell only slightly in its second episode. It's still likely to be renewed.

Following the ratings loser Titanic special, GCB fell to a series low 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. The trigger happy would predict it likely to be canceled now, but since it had a string of prior non-dreadful ratings, I'm not so quick to move it from a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. I'm still waiting to see how it does in its next new episode.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Common Anomaly

    Don’t Trust the Bill’s on Cougar Town:

    Bill Gorman – you can’t trust someone who makes it his business to tell you which shows will be cancelled and which shows will be renewed, and then they make up their own rule which prevents them from telling you if a show will be canceled or renewed. Also, the name “Renew/Cancel Index” is misleading, it should be called “Bubble Town.”

    Bill Lawrence – creator of Cougar Town – “finale is on 29th, due to missed ep; show is also on the 15th and 22.” – on twitter – April 19, 2012 – Cougar Town is not scheduled on May 22 because a DWTS recap show is scheduled from 8 – 9 PM.

    Leap Day “Billy” William – “Cougar Town: the ratings aren’t great, or even good but it will be renewed anyway.” – Bubble Watch – February 26, 2012

  • little_big_man

    Is Last Man Standing really still more likely to be renewed than Cougar Town, even though its ratings are only slightly better recently and LMS is far further away from syndication than CT?

  • billy martins

    they shall keep private practice for one more season and shift the show to midseason giving them a 13-22 episode run.and they shall also keep my favourite shows like gcb,body of proof and shift revenge from wednesdays to sunday at 10pm.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Is Last Man Standing really still more likely to be renewed than Cougar Town, even though its ratings are only slightly better recently and LMS is far further away from syndication than CT?”

    Since CT returned it has averaged a 1.56 rating, during that same period LMS has averaged a 1.98.

    +27% is not “slightly better”.

  • sarah

    As if Castle was suited for a 8pm timeslot. No way it’ll air on Thursdays

  • Devin

    I still think they will renew Body of Proof. It get’s a lot of viewers and most of the 10 pm shows rate at 2.0 or just below. I don’t think ABC will add as many shows this fall as they did last fall. They seem to have more stability.

  • Avery

    2012-13 Schedule
    Sunday
    8:00 Once Upon a Time
    9:00 Beauty and the Beast
    10:00 GCB

    Monday
    8:00 DTWS
    10:00 Castle

    Tuesday
    8:00 Happy Endings
    8:30 Pairie Dogs
    9:00 Counter Culture
    9:30 Apt. 23
    10:00 DTWS Results Show

    Wednesday
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 Suburgatory
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 Last Man Standing
    10:00 Revenge

    Thursday
    8:00 Wipeout: Fall Edition
    9:00 Grey’s
    10:00 Scandal

    Friday
    8:00 Malibu Country
    8:30 Awesometown
    9:00 The Manzanis
    9:30 How to Live with Your Parents for the Rest of Your Life
    10:00 20/20

  • tvfreak

    Game time! With some changes: Votes are now to be done in +3, +2, -2, and -3 until only three shows remain, when all votes will be +3 and -3 only. Also, if anyone new to the site or the game expresses interest in playing, they will first have to be vetted by me, as they must swear on their own graves not to cheat by shape-shifting multiple votes, or any other method (remember to wait 24 hours between votes), and pass a quick trivia test based on the remaining shows in the game. Trivia questions will be asked only on request.

    And yes, I am serious about the “swear on their own graves” part. Really.

    CASTLE – 38
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 20 (
    THE MIDDLE – 39
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 40
    MODERN FAMILY – 32

  • Bunny

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Cougar Town gets a surprise renewal..

    Bill Lawrence(showrunner) is still very confident and it’s the only comedy on air that ABC owned

  • Rebecca

    It would be nice (to me and other fans) if CT gets another season. Two episodes air on May 15th and then the last two air on May 29th (futoncritic finally has that date listed – it wasn’t listed yesterday but it is today).

    @tvfreak
    So, am I vetted? Or should I answer a trivia question? I’m voting late today, once I have permission, so I’ll have a new vote time.

  • One @ Bill Gorman

    Are you going to write something to the affect of “Revenge will NOT be Canceled This Year”?

  • One @ Bill Gorman

    But lately LMS has been hitting some worrisome lows. A 1.6 (i.e. last week’s rating) does not read of steady ground to me…

  • tvfreak

    @Rebecca: Of course you’re vetted. That part only applies to those who I don’t recognize as regular visitors.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Are you going to write something to the affect of “Revenge will NOT be Canceled This Year”?”

    I’d put the likelihood of Revenge getting into the headline in the next week or two as high, but no promises.

  • Rebecca

    CASTLE – 38
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 17 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 42 (+3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 42 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 30 (-2)

    quote from Castle [4.21]:
    Castle in Slaughter’s car: That was awesome! Beckett never drives on the sidewalk!

  • Concerned Citizen

    Monday
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor
    10:00 – Nashville

    Tuesday
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars results/Gilded Lillys (8 episodes)
    9:00 – Last Man Standing
    9:30 – Malibu Country
    10:00 – Happy Endings
    10:30 – Apartment 23 (22 episodes)/The Smart One (8 episodes)

    Wednesday
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – Suburgatory
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – The Family Trap (22 episodes)/American Judy (8 episodes)

    Thursday
    8:00 – Private Practice
    9:00 – Gray’s Anatomy
    10:00 – Last Resort

    Sunday
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time
    9:00 – 666 Park Ave.
    10:00 – Castle

  • Devin

    2012-13 Schedule
    Sunday
    6:00 AFV
    8:00 Once Upon a Time
    9:00 Revenge
    10:00 GCB

    Monday
    8:00 DTWS
    10:00 Castle

    Tuesday
    8:00 Last Man Standing
    8:30 Malibu Country
    9:00 Apt. 23
    9:30 Happy Endings
    10:00 DTWS Results Show

    Wednesday
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 Suburgatory
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 The Manzanis
    10:00 Last Resort

    Thursday
    8:00 Beauty and the Beast
    9:00 Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 Private Practice/Scandal

    Friday
    8:00 How to Live with Your Parents for the Rest of Your Life
    8:30 The Family Trap
    9:00 Cougar Town
    9:30 Awesome town
    10:00 Body of Proof

    Bench
    Zero Hour
    American Judy
    Prairie Dogs
    666 Park Avenue
    Devious Maids
    The Smart One

  • Bunny

    Only Apt 23 and Revenge are new for the wed lineup…

    Lets see how Apt 23 will do…

  • 47th

    Brothers & Sisters cast was MUCH more expensive though. Even if they didn’t have to renew their contracts (I don’t remember the circumstances) Sally Field, Calista Flockhart and Rachel Griffiths were all big stars before the show.

    Could PP benefit from the fact of being a spin-off from Grey’s Anatomy in syndication or international sales?

  • SJ

    Private Practice is not as expensive as Brothers & Sisters was and it is my understanding that the cast members are contracted through season 6, which wasn’t the case with B&S (only Calista Flockhart had a 6-year deal IIRC). B&S also faced some internal problems, like dissatisfaction with the material, cast fatigue… PP, by all accounts, has no such problems. The fact that it’s doing worse than Body of Proof is worrisome, but it’s not dead yet.

    My guess is, its fate most likely hinges on the new pilots. If ABC is sitting on a bunch of crappy drama pilots, it will likely get a short final season.

    I hope GCB, PP and Scandal are not in an either-or situation because I’ll be really pissed if the cliched, overacted Scandal costs me either of the other two.

    I guess ABC is waiting for the MF and GA actors to re-sign for new seasons of their respective shows so they can go ahead and renew most of the line-up.

    And there are no more obstacles for the four successful shows that started in the fall: LMS aired during The River weeks and was the only bright spot on Tuesdays, Once aired against all the award shows and survived, Suburgatory did decently after a Middle repeat and Revenge came back strong after the hiatus. It would be nice if ABC could at least renew these four for now. But oh well, it’ll all be over in three weeks.

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