ABC: Even If 'Private Practice' Tuesday Ratings Stink, Expect A Final Season Renewal Attempted

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Missing :oops: 0.65
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.89
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.92
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Desperate Housewives final season 1.04
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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When Private Practice hit a series low 1.7 rating in its new Tuesday 10pm timeslot last week some viewers freaked out. Understandably so. That ratings level is typically associated with a danger of cancellation on ABC. However, my guess is that no matter how woeful the ratings are during the brief Tuesday run of PP this Spring, ABC will try and engineer a deal to bring the show back for what might be its final season next year.

That's not to say such a deal is certain. I thought ABC would do the same for a final season of Brothers & Sisters (and they reportedly tried), but didn't get a deal done.

The observant will note that I've moved Revenge up to certain to be renewed. That may hit the headline in a future week, but I wanted to get PP in this week.

Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 fell only slightly in its second episode. It's still likely to be renewed.

Following the ratings loser Titanic special, GCB fell to a series low 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. The trigger happy would predict it likely to be canceled now, but since it had a string of prior non-dreadful ratings, I'm not so quick to move it from a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. I'm still waiting to see how it does in its next new episode.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • little_big_man

    @Bill:
    That’s why I didn’t say “on average” but “recently”. Is a show that already pulls 1.6 in its first season really more likely to get to syndication than one pulling 1.4 in its third season?

  • LLL

    @avery
    I like the wednesday night lineup.

  • Fred

    No show since LOST has captured my imagination like OUAT.
    I’ve enticed every friend of mine to watch it. Nearly every single one is hooked. None of them would have sampled it on their own. Hands down my top drama. Revenge would be a distant # 2. I enjoy Missing and I’m still hooked on Desperate Housewives . Didn’t watch Scandal , but so many I know love it, so I will be watching it soon.

    As for Comedy: Cougar Town is my top choice, followed closely by The Middle, Modern Family and Happy Endings. Haven’t checked out Don’t Trust the B….. yet,but will shortly.

    Not into playing games, but if anyone can suggest other shows that may interest me please let me know.

    Thank you

  • Rebecca

    @Fred
    You like all the same ABC comedies I like (and I love OUAT). I like Apt 23, too (having just seen two episodes but I’ll keep watching), so maybe you’ll also like that one. The brunette in it is good (the blonde is okay but she’s not the B), but the scenes with James Van der Beek playing up his Dawson’s Creek fame are the funniest IMO. I didn’t watch much of Dawson’s Creek but I know enough to get the Dawson jokes. He plays himself.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “That’s why I didn’t say “on average” but “recently”. Is a show that already pulls 1.6 in its first season really more likely to get to syndication than one pulling 1.4 in its third season?”

    1. I hesitate to make predictions based on a small group of recent ratings when a large group is available. Trying to do that in the past has not proven to be reliable. Your mileage may vary.
    2. Not uncommon for 2nd seasons of sitcoms to show increases. 4th season increases when the 3rd season was a bust? No way.
    3. Syndication potential is the only thing keeping Cougar Town out of “certain to be canceled”.

  • Teag

    The River! Renew! Mid-season from January to May!

  • Raykov

    @Bill
    Even with that in mind, I don’t think LMS is more likely to get renewed than PP or Castle is.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I don’t think LMS is more likely to get renewed than PP or Castle is.”

    Neither do I. What gave you the idea that I did?

  • Nick

    @Fred
    Since you like the Middle and MF, I’m surprised you don’t watch Suburgatory or Last Man Standing. They are both good shows.
    If you like Scandal’s wacky procedural-with-a-twist format, you would like Castle and would have liked Body of Proof (before the season ended).
    OUAT is my favorite ABC drama too! :-D

  • Raykov

    @Bill
    It’s my mistake, because I wasn’t clear enough. I mean, it’s between them when LMS should be under Scandal and a face down. ABC already have 4 certain renewals in sitcoms – The Middle, Modern Family, Suburgatory and Happy Endings. Cougar Town will probably be renewed because of syndication and because it’s owned by ABC. Don’t Trust The B in Apt 23 looks good right now. And there are some shows in their development which seem really interesting and will probably be picked. I just can’t see them on the schedule next year with so many sitcoms unless ABC expands their comedy time with 1 or maybe 2 hours. And then PP and Castle are perfect fillers for the 10 pm slots – decent ratings, not so expensive cast.

  • March

    People want Revenge to be moved to Sundays at 9 pm which i think is bad. Sunday means going against award shows and Revenge is a highly serialized show which can only be damaged.

    Next season can be realy great for ABC but they have to do their scheduling carefully. I want to see Apartment 23 Tuesdays at 9 pm but i think it shares the same audience as New Girl so that might be contra productive.

    And about Monday i have the feeling that Dancing with the stars won’t get any better so ABC better reduce it to once a season probably in spring and air scripted shows in fall and winter.

    Monday
    8:00 Castle / Dancing with the stars
    9:00 Last Resort / Dancing with the stars
    10:00 666 Park Ave / Zero Hour

    Tuesday
    8:00 Last Man Standing
    8:30 Malibu Country
    9:00 Apartment 23
    9:30 The Smart One / Happy Endings
    10:00 GCB / Dancing with the stars (results)

    Wednesday
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 Suburgatory
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 American Judy / The Family Trap
    10:00 Revenge

    Thursday
    8:00 Americana / Nashville
    9:00 Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 Gilded Lilys

    Sunday
    8:00 One upon a time
    9:00 Beauty & The Beast / Gotham
    10:00 Devious Maids / Scruples

    Cancel Cougar town, Private Practice, Body of Proof and Scandal. I like them but not enough to see them for another season.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “It’s my mistake, because I wasn’t clear enough. I mean, it’s between them when LMS should be under Scandal and a face down. ABC already have 4 certain renewals in sitcoms – The Middle, Modern Family, Suburgatory and Happy Endings. Cougar Town will probably be renewed because of syndication and because it’s owned by ABC. Don’t Trust The B in Apt 23 looks good right now. And there are some shows in their development which seem really interesting and will probably be picked. I just can’t see them on the schedule next year with so many sitcoms unless ABC expands their comedy time with 1 or maybe 2 hours. And then PP and Castle are perfect fillers for the 10 pm slots – decent ratings, not so expensive cast.”

    Scandal is close to being moved up to “likely renewal”, so I cannot disagree with it being approximately the same likelihood as LMS, but the idea that Cougar Town is a lock for renewal is fantasy.

    Far more likely that LMS is renewed and Cougar Town is canceled than the other way around.

  • Fred

    @Nick,

    I only listed my TOP shows. LMS and SUB are not my faves, although I do sometimes enjoy them. I also like CASTLE and BOP, but not my top choices. Will give Scandal a shot asap.

    Thanks!

  • rob60990

    “People want Revenge to be moved to Sundays at 9 pm which i think is bad. Sunday means going against award shows and Revenge is a highly serialized show which can only be damaged.”

    Anyone who wants Revenge Sunday at 9 is either an idiot or wants the show dead for the reasons you have stated. Also, it does not fit with Once Upon a Time at all.

  • Fred

    @Rebecca,

    Were you a fan of LOST as well?

  • Devin

    “Anyone who wants Revenge Sunday at 9 is either an idiot or wants the show dead for the reasons you have stated. Also, it does not fit with Once Upon a Time at all.”

    That’s a bit harsh. Revenge is ABC most buzzed about show and Sunday is the most watched night of TV. I don’t care if it stays on Tuesday, but I think it could grow it’s audience on Sunday.

  • Devin

    I meant Wednesday.

  • OERM

    @47th

    That’s true
    PP has gotten international airings, for example in almost every country in Latinoamerica where is pair with GA.

    I think PP is a great show, and the cast is not expensive.
    Even on Tuesday the show is doing fine for that awful time slot. I also think the ratings can go up this week or maybe next week because some people doesn’t know the show return on Tuesday.

  • Ultima

    @March
    People want Revenge to be moved to Sundays at 9 pm which i think is bad. Sunday means going against award shows and Revenge is a highly serialized show which can only be damaged.

    Well, there’s always the possibility that ABC will stop scheduling originals against award shows… ;)

    And about Monday i have the feeling that Dancing with the stars won’t get any better so ABC better reduce it to once a season probably in spring and air scripted shows in fall and winter.

    ABC doesn’t even have three hours of scripted shows on its entire schedule that do better than Dancing with the Stars.

  • felipe

    why ABC keep killing Private Practice by putting the show on a Tuesday instead of it’s original time at Thursdays just because that crap of that new show Scandal they are able to risk a five-year show on a rookie just like that they’d better give us a decent final season if it’s the case

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