ABC: Even If 'Private Practice' Tuesday Ratings Stink, Expect A Final Season Renewal Attempted

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Missing :oops: 0.65
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.89
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.92
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Desperate Housewives final season 1.04
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

-
When Private Practice hit a series low 1.7 rating in its new Tuesday 10pm timeslot last week some viewers freaked out. Understandably so. That ratings level is typically associated with a danger of cancellation on ABC. However, my guess is that no matter how woeful the ratings are during the brief Tuesday run of PP this Spring, ABC will try and engineer a deal to bring the show back for what might be its final season next year.

That's not to say such a deal is certain. I thought ABC would do the same for a final season of Brothers & Sisters (and they reportedly tried), but didn't get a deal done.

The observant will note that I've moved Revenge up to certain to be renewed. That may hit the headline in a future week, but I wanted to get PP in this week.

Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 fell only slightly in its second episode. It's still likely to be renewed.

Following the ratings loser Titanic special, GCB fell to a series low 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. The trigger happy would predict it likely to be canceled now, but since it had a string of prior non-dreadful ratings, I'm not so quick to move it from a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. I'm still waiting to see how it does in its next new episode.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Shahhida

    I LOVE SEEING THOSE GREEN !!:D!! NEXT TO OUaT!!!!!

  • Rebecca

    @Greg
    Yes, I think it was. I think back when LMS was about to premiere Tim Allen or someone with ABC said that. So if LMS returns and stays on Tuesdays, hopefully some family friendly comedies will go on that night with it…whether it’s The Middle, Suburgatory….I don’t know much yet about Family Trap (new) but I’ve got it and The Smart One in my notes for what try out on ABC in the fall. American Judy, too, but I’d imagine that one might go better with something like CT, HE or A23 if one or more of those return (I hope all three, but we’ll see). Those shows, along with Gotham and BATB are probably all I’ll see on ABC besides MF, Castle, AFHV, OUAT and the others I already mentioned.

  • Rebecca

    CASTLE – 44 (+3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 11 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 46 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 40
    MODERN FAMILY – 28 (-2)

    Quote from CT [3.9]:
    Bobby: You know, I used to get magic and science mixed up. But now I realize they’re just one and the same.

  • Red Jane

    With some effort I managed to put myself through the last 4 eps of GCB which I had skipped previously and the show’s definitely dead – It is not very funny, no plots to speak of and most characters are such absurd parodies, they’ve become painful to watch. ABC can find something better….

  • nikita

    They should without a doubt keep the river and GCB! They actually turned out to be pretty awesome shows.

  • Nick

    CASTLE – 42 (-2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 8 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 46
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 42 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 31 (+3)

  • Riff Rafferty

    Please forgive our resident ABC wh@re, Liz, if she can’t be on this week to post about how awesome and amazing and popular all of ABC’s awesome, amazing, popular shows are. As you may have heard, ABC has fallen on very hard times lately. Things have gotten so bad that last week they had to let Goofy go.

    (Yeah, apparently, the Gay Day company hates the gays too.)

  • Riff Rafferty

    Is Last Man Standing really still more likely to be renewed than Cougar Town, even though its ratings are only slightly better recently and LMS is far further away from syndication than CT?

    With both creators of the show blasting ABC, blasting ABC’s entertainment president (who, let the record state, “blows”), blasting the show they replaced on the schedule (which, let the record state, pulled better numbers than “Cougar Town”) AND with ABC ordering a ridiculous 13 sitcom pilots? No, there isn’t. Who was interested in “Cougar Town” repeats? Lifetime? Oxygen? OWN?

    Hell, with all those pilots, even “Happy Endings” is only about 60/40 (and even then, only because of its 18-34 numbers and because ABC thinks it’s BRILLIANT) Unlike “Suburgatory,” the show is all lead-in, so honestly, I wouldn’t bring it back.

  • tvfreak

    CASTLE – 45 (+3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 5 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 46
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 40 (-2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 33 (+2)

    Eliminated:

    18. The River (4-11, 8:28pm)
    17. Private Practice (4-11, 8:28pm)
    16. Grey’s Anatomy (4-12, 9:31am)
    15. Last Man Standing (4-12, 9:31am)
    14. Scandal (4-13, 5:47am)
    13. Missing (4-13, 5:47am)
    12. Happy Endings (4-13, 9:14am)
    11. Body Of Proof (4-14, 6:52pm)
    10. Cougar Town (4-15, 4:31pm)
    9. Suburgatory (4-16, 3:43pm)
    8. Apartment 23 (4-22, 10:03am)
    7. Revenge (4-22, 10:03am)
    6. GCB (4-22, 6:30pm)

    From Life on Mars episode 1.03 “My Maharishi Is Bigger Than Your Maharishi” -
    Windy: Book ‘em Danno. Do you ever say that? Book ‘em Danno.
    Sam: I would if I worked with a guy named Danno.
    Windy: You should hire one. How cool would that be?

  • MoHasanie

    CASTLE – 42 (-3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 6 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 46
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 38 (-2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 35 (+2)

  • channy

    omg i dont care what gets cancelled but the river is an ok show and scandal is a frigging amazing. what the hell is wrong with people. they didnt do enough promo for some stuff.

  • WooTV!

    CASTLE – 39(-3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 9 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 44 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 38
    MODERN FAMILY – 37 (+2)

  • 5thSeasonFringe

    CASTLE – 37(-2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 12 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 41 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 38
    MODERN FAMILY – 39 (+2)

  • K-Fed

    CASTLE – 35 (-2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 15 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 38 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 40 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 39

  • tvfreak

    @WooTV and @5thSeasonFringe, sorry but your votes are invalid due to not being recognized enough on this site. In order to play, you must swear on your graves (or the future urn that will contain your ashes should you choose cremation) not to cheat, plus answer a trivia question (which will be different for the both of you!)

    @WooTV: Why did Lily say her first cuss word on MF episode “Little Bo Bleep?”

    @5thSeasonFringe: Name the first 90s movie with a score composed by the same man who created the theme for Desperate Housewives.

    Until then, voters go by these numbers (based on @K-Fed’s votes):

    CASTLE – 40
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 9
    THE MIDDLE – 43
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 40
    MODERN FAMILY – 35

  • Fred

    After last weeks awful Revenge ep , following a nearly 2 month hiatus, I’m not suprised that Revenge dipped to a series low.
    Still a 2.0 at 10:00 is ok.

  • Bright

    Well, it’s not my business as I’ve chosen a few days ago I wouldn’t play anymore and I don’t manage the place, but I think that you people are going too far with all of the vetting, the question requirements and everything.

    As I said, not my business, but I don’t like to see that. I watch MF and DH and I wouldn’t answer those questions without having to look for them on the internet. I feel like we’re in ’1984′ the novel or something. Not funny anymore. Sorry, I had to say it.

  • Fred

    @Rebecca,

    Check out the latest TV UIDE magazine. Some pretty interesting articles in this issue: On The Bubble Shows, Rating decline explanations a Cougar Town sneak peek and well written TV show reviews. I also like reading EW Weekly, but more for music and movies, TV GUIDE is better for TV.

    Also are you watching Revenge? Whats your take on it lately? I’m sticking with it, but it has been a chore.
    Btw COUGAR TOWN has been on a roll! I know renewal chances are slim to none, but it really is fantastic.

  • Eran SABANER

    I have really mixed thoughts about both GCB and Scandal’s future. Scandal is a really stable show, and considering all the ABC dramas are falling to lows this spring that is pretty impressive. However, 2.0 rating is a very dangerous rating it falls to something lower than let’s say 1.8 we all now it’s dead. And about GCB, I think ABC will renew the series because “it has potential” thing like they did in Happy Endings last season. Because, I believe GCB has a really hit maker premise, and it is suffering from a messy program.

  • Rebecca

    @Fred
    I will look for that mag issue, thanks. I have only seen a few episodes of Revenge – it’s not really one of the shows I watch. Might catch up on it via hulu over the summer. Didn’t like last night’s A23 as much as the previous two episodes but I’ll keep watching. I enjoy GCB, too – forgot to mention that one to you last time. I love CT the most, I think.
    ———
    new vote

    CASTLE – 42 (+2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 6 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 46 (+3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 40
    MODERN FAMILY – 33 (-2)

    quote from CT [2.3]:
    Jules: This is our cul de sac, dammit! We’ve got to protect it. Tonight, we take back the sac! First order of business, we need a new slogan.

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