ABC: Even If 'Private Practice' Tuesday Ratings Stink, Expect A Final Season Renewal Attempted

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Missing :oops: 0.65
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.89
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.92
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Desperate Housewives final season 1.04
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

-
When Private Practice hit a series low 1.7 rating in its new Tuesday 10pm timeslot last week some viewers freaked out. Understandably so. That ratings level is typically associated with a danger of cancellation on ABC. However, my guess is that no matter how woeful the ratings are during the brief Tuesday run of PP this Spring, ABC will try and engineer a deal to bring the show back for what might be its final season next year.

That's not to say such a deal is certain. I thought ABC would do the same for a final season of Brothers & Sisters (and they reportedly tried), but didn't get a deal done.

The observant will note that I've moved Revenge up to certain to be renewed. That may hit the headline in a future week, but I wanted to get PP in this week.

Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 fell only slightly in its second episode. It's still likely to be renewed.

Following the ratings loser Titanic special, GCB fell to a series low 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. The trigger happy would predict it likely to be canceled now, but since it had a string of prior non-dreadful ratings, I'm not so quick to move it from a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. I'm still waiting to see how it does in its next new episode.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Rebecca

    @Bright
    If you think of it this way: People trying to cheat in the game most likely won’t bother to look up the answers to any show trivia questions. So in a sense it’s to help limit the sock puppet cheaters (which was explained in the rules on page 2 and towards the end of the prior week’s thread). Not trying to make the game an elitist thing, just trying to keep the math correct and not let cheaters get away with casting multiple votes. I’d have to dig deep to answer that DH question, I’ll admit.

  • MJ

    2012-2013 ABC:

    Sunday:
    8pm OUAT
    9pm 666 Park Ave
    10pm Castle

    Monday:
    8-10pm (Fall) DWTS results at the beginning of each episode/(Winter/Spring) Gilded Lily’s and Zero Hour
    10pm Last Resort

    Tuesday:
    8pm Malibu Country
    8:30pm Last Man Standing
    9pm Happy Endings/Awesometown
    9:30pm Apt 23/Prairie Dogs
    10pm Private Practice

    Wednesday:
    8pm The Middle
    8:30pm Subergatory
    9pm Modern Family
    9:30pm American Judy/Family Trap
    10pm Revenge

    Thursday:
    8pm Americana
    9pm Grey’s Anatomy
    10pm Scandal

    Friday:
    same

  • Justin121

    Yes, I only care about desperate housewives :D

    CASTLE – 42
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 9 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 48 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 38 (-2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 30 (-3)

  • Nick

    CASTLE – 40 (-2)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 6 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 48
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 40 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 33 (+3)

  • Mark

    @tvfreak, your rules are dumb. I have been following this site since september 2008 but I rarely post a comment. I just read them. But If I wanted to participate in the game I have to answer a trivia question? I don’t like that. And frankly, I grew tired of your game a few weeks ago. I personally wish some people would stop posting so much(cough rebecca cough) I just find some people annoying.

  • tvfreak

    @Mark: Well, if I recognize you enough I won’t make the trivia request.

    CASTLE – 43 (+3)
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 3 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 48
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 38 (-2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 35 (+2)

    Eliminated:

    18. The River (4-11, 8:28pm)
    17. Private Practice (4-11, 8:28pm)
    16. Grey’s Anatomy (4-12, 9:31am)
    15. Last Man Standing (4-12, 9:31am)
    14. Scandal (4-13, 5:47am)
    13. Missing (4-13, 5:47am)
    12. Happy Endings (4-13, 9:14am)
    11. Body Of Proof (4-14, 6:52pm)
    10. Cougar Town (4-15, 4:31pm)
    9. Suburgatory (4-16, 3:43pm)
    8. Apartment 23 (4-22, 10:03am)
    7. Revenge (4-22, 10:03am)
    6. GCB (4-22, 6:30pm)

    “I’m not perfect, I’m no snitch, but I can tell you, she’s a b**ch…”
    -Apartment 23 opening song (every episode, of course)

  • Tony

    I’m really excited to see what ABC does with their schedule next season. They need to do a major shake up. Not just because they need a ratings increase, but because it looks like they are going to add an hour of comedy and might chop the dancing results show.

    Will ABC keep ALL of Castle, PP, Revenge, Scandal, and GCB in their respective 10 pm slots. They ALL seem to have such similar ratings. My bet is no.

    Next season, Sunday at 9pm is going to be ABC’s major time slot. It will likely go to Revenge or a new drama. It will be given a prime 9pm hour, and given one of ABC’s best lead-in (Once Upon a Time). If Revenge is placed there, I could see it break out in that slot. 10 pm is a TOUGH slot to gain an audience and Revenge DVRs well, so if it’s moved to a prime 9pm slot post OUAT, it could breakout. Follow that by a buzz worthy new drama, 666 Park Ave. and that’s one great night of television I tune into. I think ABC should try to use Devious Maids on another day and not put it in DH’s old slot.

  • Linda

    I’m hoping ABC gives Body of Proof another season….. Unfortunately, it doesn’t meet the “Golden demograhic”, so they won’t.

  • Tony

    Scandal is #1 Worldwide TT on twitter right now (outside of the “#1 promotional trending topic”, and reading the tweets everybody is obsessed with it, and apparent ally the episode was insane, intense, off the chain to quote some of the words people used, other people also said they’re hooked, or this was their first time watching the show and now they’re hooked and can’t wait till next thursday. I’m watching it right now via DVR, even though I know what happens because of twitter, but I can’t wait to see the ratings tomorrow. and I know that social media has no effect on ratings and it will probably get another 2.1 tomorrow to only be adjusted down to a 2.0 again, but I’m hoping it grows this week.

    what did everyone else think of tonight’s episode?

    Once, Revenge, Scandal… my top 3 new favorite dramas this season, and favorite dramas on tv period. well done Paul Lee!

  • SJ

    I can’t wait for May 15 when ABC announces its schedule to see some of your reactions when Revenge is NOT moved to Sunday nights! :D

  • Rebecca

    CASTLE – 43
    DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES – 0 (-3) eliminated, sorry fans – take off list
    THE MIDDLE – 50 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 41 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 33 (-2)

    quote from GCB [1.8]:
    Amanda: In trying to bury the Mean Girl I just brought her back to life and destroyed Carlene, Cricket and Heather.
    Pastor Tudor: Destroyed? I’m afraid those three are tough enough to survive the Apocalypse.

  • MoHasanie

    Noooo, DH is eliminated :(. Oh well, its exciting to see what the final show on the list will be….

    CASTLE – 40 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 48 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 41 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 36 (+3)

  • James

    I say cancel GCB, Cougartown, Missing, Body of Proof, The River, and Scandal, and try to release some hit shows.
    My votes go to Nashville, 666 Park Avenue, or Scruples.

  • Rebecca

    Just correcting a vote. @MoHasanie forgot to add the 2 pts to OUAT, so I’m doing it here. Not a new vote, but next person goes off this one.

    CASTLE – 40 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 48 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 43 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 36 (+3)

  • tvfreak

    CASTLE – 43 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 46 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 40 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 38 (+2)

    Eliminated:

    18. The River (4-11, 8:28pm)
    17. Private Practice (4-11, 8:28pm)
    16. Grey’s Anatomy (4-12, 9:31am)
    15. Last Man Standing (4-12, 9:31am)
    14. Scandal (4-13, 5:47am)
    13. Missing (4-13, 5:47am)
    12. Happy Endings (4-13, 9:14am)
    11. Body Of Proof (4-14, 6:52pm)
    10. Cougar Town (4-15, 4:31pm)
    9. Suburgatory (4-16, 3:43pm)
    8. Apartment 23 (4-22, 10:03am)
    7. Revenge (4-22, 10:03am)
    6. GCB (4-22, 6:30pm)
    5. Desperate Housewives (4-27, 12:57pm)

    “You try speaking another language!”
    -Gloria, from Modern Family episode 2.06 “Halloween”

  • Nevid

    CASTLE – 46 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 48 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 37 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 36 (-2)

  • Nick

    What to do, what to do? I love ALL of these shows! :-(

    CASTLE – 43 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 46 (-2) LOVE this show :-( :-( :-(
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 39 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 39 (+3)

  • Nick

    Since I’m bored, what ABC should do next season:

    Sun:
    AFV
    OUAT
    Gotham (new)
    Last Resort (new)

    Mon:
    DWTS/Hallmark Movies/Bachelor
    new drama

    Tue:
    LMS
    new comedy
    DWTS Results/ Apartment 23 + CT
    Private Practice (13 ep. Final season) new drama

    Wed:
    Middle
    Suburgatory
    MF
    American Judy (new)
    Revenge

    Thu:
    Beauty and the Beast (new)
    GA
    new drama

    Fri:
    Wipeout/ Shark Tank
    Body of Proof/PWWYD?
    GCB/ Scandal

    Sat:
    B&TB (repeat)
    20/20
    Gotham (repeat)

    New :
    2 comedies
    5 new dramas
    1 new midseason drama (could be 2 comedies)

    Cancelled:
    Missing
    The River
    Happy Endings
    You Deserve It (unscripted, so it’s not on here)

  • Nick

    ^Add Celebrity Wife Swap as a midseason replacement.

  • Georgie

    i also think Last Resort will end up somewhere on the schedule in the fall. I am not sure were though. Maybe a political-thriller night consisting of Scandal, Last Resort, and Dark Horse might work.

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