ABC: Even If 'Private Practice' Tuesday Ratings Stink, Expect A Final Season Renewal Attempted

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Missing :oops: 0.65
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.89
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.92
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Desperate Housewives final season 1.04
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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When Private Practice hit a series low 1.7 rating in its new Tuesday 10pm timeslot last week some viewers freaked out. Understandably so. That ratings level is typically associated with a danger of cancellation on ABC. However, my guess is that no matter how woeful the ratings are during the brief Tuesday run of PP this Spring, ABC will try and engineer a deal to bring the show back for what might be its final season next year.

That's not to say such a deal is certain. I thought ABC would do the same for a final season of Brothers & Sisters (and they reportedly tried), but didn't get a deal done.

The observant will note that I've moved Revenge up to certain to be renewed. That may hit the headline in a future week, but I wanted to get PP in this week.

Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 fell only slightly in its second episode. It's still likely to be renewed.

Following the ratings loser Titanic special, GCB fell to a series low 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. The trigger happy would predict it likely to be canceled now, but since it had a string of prior non-dreadful ratings, I'm not so quick to move it from a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. I'm still waiting to see how it does in its next new episode.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • tvfreak

    @Nick: I know how you feel. It’s worse for me on the Fox thread.

    @Georgie: I would love Last Resort to make it to series too. I can see that one becoming ABC’s Person of Interest.

  • Georgie

    @tvfreak I would not know considering I do not watch Person of Interest or anything else on CBS for that matter. I tried to get into Bug Bang Theory a while ago when my dad had some episodes of it on DVD. I could not stand it even as someone who considers themselves apart of the nerd/geek community I could not get into that show.

  • Mark

    MONDAY:
    8pm – Dancing with the Stars
    10pm – Last Resort

    TUESDAY:
    8pm – Happy Endings
    8:30pm – How To Live With Your Parents
    9pm – DWTS Results
    10pm – Private Practice

    WEDNESDAY:
    8pm – The Middle
    8:30pm – Suburgatory
    9pm – Modern Family
    9:30pm – American Judy
    10pm – Revenge

    THURSDAY:
    8pm – Americana
    9pm – Grey’s Anatomy
    10pm – Scandal

    FRIDAY:
    8pm – Shark Tank
    9pm – Last Man Standing
    9:30pm – Malibu Country
    10pm – 20/20

    SUNDAY:
    8pm – Once Upon A Time
    9pm – Mistresses
    10pm – GCB

    MIDSEASON:
    Nashville
    Gilded Lilys
    Devious Maids
    Only Fools and Horses
    Untitled Mandy Moore
    Cougar Town
    Castle

  • Carm

    Cancel Body of Proof and keep Private Practice!!!!

  • tvfreak

    @Georgie: Well, definitely make time for Person of Interest if that’s possible for you. Although I suggest you wait for the Season 1 DVD, it’s a little bit serialized. *Off-topic-ness over now.*

  • Georgie

    @tvfreak okay, I will consider it. I watching a lot of TV already though.

    Once Upon a Time
    Scandal
    Apt. 23
    Community
    Glee
    Fringe

  • tvfreak

    @Georgie: That’s all you watch? At least make room for Castle in there somewhere. Well worth it, that one.

  • tvfreak

    CASTLE – 46 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 44 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 36 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 41 (+2)

    Eliminated:
    18. The River (4-11, 8:28pm)
    17. Private Practice (4-11, 8:28pm)
    16. Grey’s Anatomy (4-12, 9:31am)
    15. Last Man Standing (4-12, 9:31am)
    14. Scandal (4-13, 5:47am)
    13. Missing (4-13, 5:47am)
    12. Happy Endings (4-13, 9:14am)
    11. Body Of Proof (4-14, 6:52pm)
    10. Cougar Town (4-15, 4:31pm)
    9. Suburgatory (4-16, 3:43pm)
    8. Apartment 23 (4-22, 10:03am)
    7. Revenge (4-22, 10:03am)
    6. GCB (4-22, 6:30pm)
    5. Desperate Housewives (4-27, 12:57pm)

    “Come back quickly. Then I can kill zombies with your thumbs.”
    -Oksana, from Missing episode 1.07 “Measure Of A Man”

  • ber

    There are now official rumours that ABC is definietely trying to launch new comedies on Fridays, which makes sense, considering the amount and compatibilities of comedies they have at the moment. This opens tones of possibilities for their schedule and, especially, makes Cougar Town reneweal a possibility, which with two comedy nights a week only would not be the case (note that I am assuming that Tuesday will be dedicated to a 2 hour comedy block as well):

    Monday:
    8 DWTS
    9 DWTS
    10 New Drama – Although I have to say: people claim ABC wastes the Castle lead in with DWTS, but the truth is, any new show could seriously flop in the winter when it airs to run its rookie season without lead-in (The Bachelor is barely a lead-in). It worked for Once Upon a Time, it’s true, but 10pm is much tougher, and I am not sure which rookie shows could do this. Still, I think it’s time to move Castle, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it won’t happen – it is not such a stupid move to keep it there as people seem to argue

    Tuesday
    8h Happy Endings
    8h30 Cougar Town
    9h Bitch 23
    9h30 New Comedy
    10h DWTS Results

    Wednesday
    8h In The Middle
    8h30 Suburgatory
    9h Modern Family
    9h30 New Comedy
    10h Revenge

    Thursday
    8h Private Practice (this hour really is ABC’s biggest problem the way I see it and although I don’t think PP is a good 8pm show, I don’t see what else they could put here (I think insisting on DOA new dramas is ridiculous at this point) and I also don’t know where else PP should go, though I really think it will be renewed for at least half a season)
    9h Grey’s Anatomy
    10h New Drama (or Scandal)

    Friday
    8h Last Man Standing
    8h30 New Comedy
    9h Shark Thank
    10h 20/20 (I also do not exclude completely the possibility of BOP showing up at this night, though it is a really long shot)

    Sunday
    8h Once Upon a Time
    9h New Drama
    10h Castle

    New Dramas: 3 (and more in midseason, I am not worrying about it here)
    New Comedies: 3 (again, more in midseason)

    Canceled Shows: The River, Missing, most likely BOP, GCB (I see no room for it on the schedule), possibly Scandal (though I think ABC will want to try this one again, a la BOP)

  • SJ

    Why don’t some people seem to know how to spell the words SUBURGATORY and SCANDAL properly? I see things like Subergatory, Scandel, Scandol, Scandle… way too often.

    If Private Practice’s ratings remain relatively strong (it beat ScandAl this week which I’m so happy about – take THAT, ABC!) then it might make more sense to keep it on in the fall – and in its new time slot. That way it might get a chance at a full final season although I still believe ABC will initially order less.

    That would mean that one of GCB or ScandAl should either move to mid-season or be canceled if ABC is to premiere three dramas in the fall. Since there’s no point in moving a freshman show that premiered mid-season to mid-season again, I guess one of those now faces likely cancellation. I still think GCB deserves to be renewed over ScandAl but we’ll see. ABC isn’t known for making smart decisions.

  • Rebecca

    CASTLE – 48 (+2)
    THE MIDDLE – 47 (+3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 34 (-2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 38 (-3)

    This one’s hard now because I love all four of these shows.
    quote from CT [2.2]:
    Jules: You can’t get off the crazy train! There’s no stops! That’s what makes it so crazy.

  • scw

    CASTLE – 45 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 49 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 37 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 36 (-2)

  • Georgie

    @SJ actual Scandal deserves to be renewed far more then the culturally insensitive GCB.

  • Georgie

    @tvfreak I tried watching Castle. It is alright, just not a show I can see myself tuning into week after week. I also try and limit the amount of television I watch to the top 5 or 6 shows that interest me.

  • tvfreak

    @Georgie: Well, if you can’t watch Castle regularly, you can still read the books. Castle’s thrillers on the show actually get published in real life. So far we have three books – Heat Wave, Naked Heat, and Heat Rises, with Frozen Heat due out in September. Also, Castle’s Derrick Storm series is being published in graphic-novel form, starting with last year’s Deadly Storm.

    @scw: Do I know you? I don’t think so. I’m afraid your vote is disregarded. Unless you can swear on your grave/ashes not to cheat at the game, and if you can answer this trivia question: Which ABC show featured a fictional thriller that had, among the reviews on the back cover, some praise from Richard Castle? Hint: It’s not Castle but one of this season’s new shows.

    Until then, voters go by @Rebecca’s numbers.

  • Nick

    CASTLE – 45 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 45 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 37 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 40 (+2)

    @tvfreak
    That is a really hard question! @scw will not know that unless he/she watches the show (I do so I already know the answer :-) lol)

  • Kathy

    Looks like many of the shows I watch will be cancelled. Missing is a great show that was given a crappy time slot. Move it around and I believe the viewers will come. Another of my favorite shows Scandal is in trouble too. Some shows are not even given a chance before they are given the thumbs down. Body of Proof, Person of Interest, I think I need to stop wasting my time getting into these series since they cancel them so easily. Maybe we should all just turn of the TV and get outside. Just a little bitter.

  • tvfreak

    @Kathy: Person of Interest is doing just fine, no need to worry. But I get what you say about shows not even getting a chance; I almost skipped Missing too, but I changed my mind at the last minute and now I’m hooked.

    CASTLE – 48 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 43 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 34 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 42 (+2)

    Eliminated:
    18. The River (4-11, 8:28pm)
    17. Private Practice (4-11, 8:28pm)
    16. Grey’s Anatomy (4-12, 9:31am)
    15. Last Man Standing (4-12, 9:31am)
    14. Scandal (4-13, 5:47am)
    13. Missing (4-13, 5:47am)
    12. Happy Endings (4-13, 9:14am)
    11. Body Of Proof (4-14, 6:52pm)
    10. Cougar Town (4-15, 4:31pm)
    9. Suburgatory (4-16, 3:43pm)
    8. Apartment 23 (4-22, 10:03am)
    7. Revenge (4-22, 10:03am)
    6. GCB (4-22, 6:30pm)
    5. Desperate Housewives (4-27, 12:57pm)

    From Lost episode 2.11 “The Hunting Party” -
    Sawyer: Oh, I don’t know, Mr. Clean, I probably would have gone around Mt. Vesuvius.
    Locke: Why’d you choose that name?
    Sawyer: Ain’t it obvious? All you need is an ear-ring and a mop.

  • Rebecca

    CASTLE – 50 (+2)
    THE MIDDLE – 46 (+3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 32 (-2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 39 (-3)

    quote from CT [1.23]:
    Jules to Grayson: Your hipster wool hat collection. Really? We’re in Florida. Don’t be that guy.

  • Mary

    Body of Proof has just gotten better and better. I love the characters and how they gel together. I so hope it doesn’t get cancelled as for ABC your losing one of my fav’s already ( desperate housewives) can’t stand all these new reality shows.

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