ABC: Even If 'Private Practice' Tuesday Ratings Stink, Expect A Final Season Renewal Attempted

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.64
Missing :oops: 0.65
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.88
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.89
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.92
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Desperate Housewives final season 1.04
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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When Private Practice hit a series low 1.7 rating in its new Tuesday 10pm timeslot last week some viewers freaked out. Understandably so. That ratings level is typically associated with a danger of cancellation on ABC. However, my guess is that no matter how woeful the ratings are during the brief Tuesday run of PP this Spring, ABC will try and engineer a deal to bring the show back for what might be its final season next year.

That's not to say such a deal is certain. I thought ABC would do the same for a final season of Brothers & Sisters (and they reportedly tried), but didn't get a deal done.

The observant will note that I've moved Revenge up to certain to be renewed. That may hit the headline in a future week, but I wanted to get PP in this week.

Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 fell only slightly in its second episode. It's still likely to be renewed.

Following the ratings loser Titanic special, GCB fell to a series low 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. The trigger happy would predict it likely to be canceled now, but since it had a string of prior non-dreadful ratings, I'm not so quick to move it from a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. I'm still waiting to see how it does in its next new episode.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • KRose

    I’m just gonna say this: Castle, its entire principle cast, and two of its recent guest stars have all been submitted by ABC for Emmy nominations. Your argument is invalid.

    Can’t wait for season 5 and all seasons after! :D

    CASTLE – 53 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 43 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 34 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 37 (-2)

  • Ultima

    @Georgie
    Saturday
    9pm 20/20

    ABC has sports on Saturday for the entire fall and 20/20 has been on Friday at 10 for many years. That move will simply not happen.

    Also, why only one DWTS cycle? It still pulls better numbers than practically everything on ABC. And while they might be looking at TGIF, expanding from six sitcom hours to ten in one year is unlikely.

    I get that you, like most people here, want to see a big increase in the amount of scripted shows, but that’s not remotely realistic. Reality, sports and newsmagazines will continue to play a big role in broadcast primetime.

  • Greg

    I have it from a good source at ABC that Body of Proof is coming back. Their plan is to bring it back with 13 final episodes. It will likely be tossed into the slot of a failing freshman drama.

  • Georgie

    @ Ultima
    I think DWTS would do better with one cycle, I think it would get more viewe that way. Maybe the Bachelor should run in the spring in the DWTS slot, or another reality show. i would also like to see Duets depending on how it does ending up on the ABC fall/Winter/Spring schedule. I am not opposed to reality programming. Maybe Shark tank and what would you do should run on Thursday at 8 pm since scripted shows will not work there at all. Abc is looking at bringing back TGIF sitcoms. I could see TGIF coming even as an 8pm hr thing with Last Man Standing and Reba.

  • Ultima

    @Greg
    I have it from a good source at ABC that Body of Proof is coming back. Their plan is to bring it back with 13 final episodes. It will likely be tossed into the slot of a failing freshman drama.

    That makes no sense. Why bring back a show which will be guaranteed to lose money when they can just air a new show instead?

  • Ultima

    @Georgie
    I think DWTS would do better with one cycle, I think it would get more viewe that way.

    Is there any past evidence of fewer episodes/hours helping ratings for reality shows? DWTS isn’t new or exciting anymore, it’s ratings are going to decline no matter what; ABC might as well get everything it can out of it (which is still a lot – DWTS is the 4th, 5th, and 6th highest rated hours on ABC). Keep in mind, two cycles of DWTS is ~60 hours over 20 weeks, essentially the same as one cycle of Idol.

    @Georgie
    Maybe Shark tank and what would you do should run on Thursday at 8 pm since scripted shows will not work there at all.

    I think they’ll stick with a drama there, at least in the fall. It will fail, but they’ll try! ;)

    Abc is looking at bringing back TGIF sitcoms. I could see TGIF coming even as an 8pm hr thing with Last Man Standing and Reba.

    One hour of TGIF sitcoms seems reasonable, if not likely. It’s probably the best place to expand to a fourth hour of sitcoms on their schedule.

  • Nick

    CASTLE – 47 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 44 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 35 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 41 (+2)

    I watched the pilot of Scandal last night… I think it is 1 of only 2ABC dramas this season I have not liked! (It isn’t worse than the River, though) lol

  • Rebecca

    @tvfreak
    Are we counting KRose’s vote on this page? So far s/he hasn’t been offered a trivia question to be vetted or whatever. Just wondered, I’m fine either way. I’ll just go off Nick’s vote or whomever votes after him if it’s before me, when it’s my turn next (in about an hour). I ask because Nick didn’t go off KRose’s votes but I think from my previous vote or whomever was last on the previous page. Thanks.

    @KRose
    I love Castle, too – can’t wait for the final two episodes of the season (tonight and next week), and I’ll watch as long as the show airs, too.

    Still greatly enjoying OUAT and GCB – but if GCB doesn’t make it to another season, oh well…it was fun while it lasted. I like OUAT more anyway.

  • tvfreak

    @Rebecca: You’re right. Thanks for catching that.

    @KRose: Please swear on your grave not to cheat at the game, and answer this trivia question: Name two episodes of Castle that are named after Castle’s books.

    CASTLE – 50 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 42 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 32 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 43 (+2)

    Eliminated:
    18. The River (4-11, 8:28pm)
    17. Private Practice (4-11, 8:28pm)
    16. Grey’s Anatomy (4-12, 9:31am)
    15. Last Man Standing (4-12, 9:31am)
    14. Scandal (4-13, 5:47am)
    13. Missing (4-13, 5:47am)
    12. Happy Endings (4-13, 9:14am)
    11. Body Of Proof (4-14, 6:52pm)
    10. Cougar Town (4-15, 4:31pm)
    9. Suburgatory (4-16, 3:43pm)
    8. Apartment 23 (4-22, 10:03am)
    7. Revenge (4-22, 10:03am)
    6. GCB (4-22, 6:30pm)
    5. Desperate Housewives (4-27, 12:57pm)

    “On October 6, the planet blacked out for two minutes and seventeen seconds. The whole world saw the future.”
    -Agent Wedeck, from FlashForward (intro to every episode)

  • Rebecca

    CASTLE – 52 (+2)
    THE MIDDLE – 45 (+3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 30 (-2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 40 (-3)

    quote from CT [2.4 or 2.5]:
    Laurie: …Dilemma – I only have half a can of spray tan left. Do I go North or South side?
    Grayson: I’d go with zebra stripes.

  • KRose

    @tvfreak: “Flowers For Your Grave” and “Hell Hath No Fury” :)

    I promise, this is my only post here. Sorry, didn’t realize the rules changed.

  • Riff Rafferty

    That makes no sense. Why bring back a show which will be guaranteed to lose money when they can just air a new show instead?

    Are you ABC’s accountant? Because if you’re not, do us all a favor and kindly STFU already.

  • Rebecca

    @tvfreak
    Aw, go ahead and count her vote (KRose’s). S/he answered the question…I can’t even answer anything pertaining to the Castle books! Or any soundtrack questions! Not without some research.

    “The murderer’s a zombie!” (high five) – that cracked me up last night. Rick high fives an officer on his way out of the room, lol.

  • Julia

    Actually, don’t count KRose’s vote, though it’s been a week since s/he was sockpuppeting to cheat, so maybe s/he has reformed.

  • Rebecca

    @Julia
    Oh, okay then! Thanks. @tvfreak, please disregard what I said before Julia’s post.

  • Rebecca

    ^ Ugh, I misquoted the show (watching it again now, lol). He said “killer,” not “murderer.” Oh well. Same thing. Sorry. Back to hulu.

  • Fred

    USA TODAY just published the results of the annual SAVE OUR SHOWS poll. NBC is champ by a wide margin. Parks and Recreation garnered the most votes for renewal followed by Community. Harry’s Law also did really well.
    For complete results check out USA TODAY’s LIFE section.

  • Rebecca

    Game players: voting on this thread is now closed. Game has resumed over on the new ABC r/c index thread, on page 2.

  • TJS

    Pan Am should have been saved. Damn ABC!!!

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