CW: Do Recent Ratings Lows Put 'The Secret Circle' In Danger Of Being Canceled?

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Ringer :cry: :cry: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.81
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 1.02
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
One Tree Hill final season 1.10
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

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After The Secret Circle hit a series low 0.5 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday, the commenter cries began "Worse than Hart Of Dixie!", "As bad as Ringer!", not to mention the retentionistas that have had their knives out for the show all season.

Does its late season ratings plunge pull it off the "likely to be renewed" list? I don't think so, at least not yet, but I'm first to admit there's no data to back me up.

It's very rare that a show that's done reasonably well (ignore the retentionistas) for 90% of the season takes a relative ratings dive at the end like that, so I don't have any data on what that might portend.

That being the case, I'm going with something like "too little, too late", figuring that while renewal decisions have not been announced, the season's ratings history on TSC had minds at the CW already substantially made up to renew the show. But I'm in uncharted waters with that leap.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • KoolRebel

    My favorite new show, Please Don’t Cancel, CW

  • vic

    The Secret Circle should be cancelled as the most dropped show. It’s state in the next season would be disastrous.

  • Michael

    Secret Circle will bounce back, this week to a 0.6 (my prediction). However, it’s quite alarming how low the show has gotten.

  • Sid

    I agree with you Bill. One week shouldn’t determine the shows fate; especially when it has performed strong from January to now(excluding last weeks lows).

    Lets wait and see if it will rebound.

  • Natalia

    @vic that’s not how networks work though. They don’t look at drops when it’s not TSC’s fault it had a higher premiere number than Hart. This Spring it has outdone Hart too

  • Dennis

    Nikita is getting cancelled for sure! :)

  • Natalia

    @Sid
    all the TSC haters are Hart fans ;) I wonder what they have to say to Hart’s recent .5

  • Rachel

    This show will probably be renewed but I’m praying to the gods that it’s not. It is beyond terrible.

    If anything they should give a 13 episode renewal and if it doesn’t perform replace it with something else.

  • RyanCanada

    TSC is a great show, im sure it will be renewed.

  • Jack

    Not sure about Secret Circle. While most of the season it has had decent ratings, if they renew it for another season, CW will find in a Nikita connudrum next year – obviosly, it doesn’t deserve TVD as a lead in (that spot will almost certainly go to the Selection or another new series), and if they move it, they’ll suffer a whole season of dreadful ratings to think about a show in the middle of nowhere, syndication wise. My spidey sense is telling me SC will be a goner by upfront time.

  • Natalia

    Kevin Williams needs to write the TSC finale that will ensure viewers to come back. Hopefully, since I always felt that TSC had potential they just kept messing it up.

  • Anil

    Best new show on the CW. I think it will be back and it will boost this week.

    Last week’s episode was mind blowing.

  • Rachel

    And I think it’s pretty silly that the president won’t cancel all of the new shows because he’s trying to save face. Admit that you failed and move on. You have 8 pilots in the works and no place to go but up.

  • vic

    @Natalia Netwaorks should plan it’s business. Thus you should compare not current ratings (and remember last year’s one) but next season probable ratings. And TSC have very bad perspectives.

  • Michael

    Natalia, Kevin Williamson moved on. He’s working really hard on a crime drama for Fox. To be honest, I don’t blame him!

  • Natalia

    @vic
    if that was the case than Nikita would not have seen a second season.

    they usually need to give a freshmen renewal pity like they did for Nikita. If they cancel all 3 then that would be embarrsing for CW. But if they want to and could afford it then tehy could cancel all 3 but I doubt it

  • vic

    @ Natalia “all the TSC haters are Hart fans”

    Are you sure? :) I have not watched any of HOD series and don’t even like Rachel.

    @ Natalia “I wonder what they have to say to Hart’s recent .5″

    I can say that HOD’s 0.5 is obviously better then TSC’s 0.5

  • Natalia

    @Micheal

    oh, I know that I just hoped he could help write TSC finale at least. Too bad though

  • Rachel

    Thus you should compare not current ratings (and remember last year’s one) but next season probable ratings. And TSC have very bad perspectives.

    I agree. It’s pretty certain this show will be renewed because the president is a coward but they’d be fools to give this show a full season. Give it 13 episodes and if the ratings don’t improve pull the plug.

  • Natalia

    @vic

    Hart average will be a solid .6 unless it starts to hit a .7. CW has never renewed a show with such a low average. Nikita average last year was .7 and it got $18k per ad. Hart will be lucky to get more than 10k. TSC has an average of .81 which would ensure it at least around 30k+. You do the math.

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