CW: Do Recent Ratings Lows Put 'The Secret Circle' In Danger Of Being Canceled?

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Ringer :cry: :cry: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.81
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 1.02
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
One Tree Hill final season 1.10
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

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After The Secret Circle hit a series low 0.5 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday, the commenter cries began "Worse than Hart Of Dixie!", "As bad as Ringer!", not to mention the retentionistas that have had their knives out for the show all season.

Does its late season ratings plunge pull it off the "likely to be renewed" list? I don't think so, at least not yet, but I'm first to admit there's no data to back me up.

It's very rare that a show that's done reasonably well (ignore the retentionistas) for 90% of the season takes a relative ratings dive at the end like that, so I don't have any data on what that might portend.

That being the case, I'm going with something like "too little, too late", figuring that while renewal decisions have not been announced, the season's ratings history on TSC had minds at the CW already substantially made up to renew the show. But I'm in uncharted waters with that leap.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • vic

    @ Natalia “if that was the case than Nikita would not have seen a second season.”

    Natalia had better ratings last season then TSC now.

    @ Natalia “they usually need to give a freshmen renewal pity like they did for Nikita.”

    In that case HOD should get it as show with better perspectives than Ringer and TSC.

  • Natalia

    @vic

    in addition, TSC is cheaper to make than Hart. Hhas King and Bilson who most likely make more than the youngsters on TSC. plus Hart is filmed in LA studios while TSC is filmed in, form what I gathered online, in Vancouver. So, set is cheaper for TSC too.

  • Natalia

    @vic

    Nikita was also called out for losing much of VD’s audience last year. Just like what people are saying about TSC this year.

  • vic

    I mean Nikita had better ratings :lol:

  • Natalia

    @vic

    where is the logic to renew a low rated show like Hart over TSC?!

    they are making buggedt cuts to Top Model, a CHEAP reality show. They are going to make cuts elsewhere too. Imagine HART with budget cuts! there would be nothing left! they would have to get rid of someof tehir regulars taht’s for sure.

  • JJJ

    You would think TSC is safe while Nikita, HOD and Ringer likely dead UNLESS the CW loves a lot of their pilots AND feel the need to take a bigger risk this year with their drooping ratings. That said i’d say TSC 70% chance of safety.

  • Michael

    Natalia, I don’t think Top Model is a “cheap” reality show. I mean have you seen the prize packages? Not only that, but Tyra Banks is the host. I’m sure she’s a top priority for the CW. Not to mention, the show has produced 18 cycles.

  • Natalia

    @JJJ
    that is excatly what I’m thinking!

  • vic

    @ Natalia “where is the logic to renew a low rated show like Hart over TSC?!”

    The logic is that TSC would have lower ratings next season than HOD.

  • Sophia

    in addition, TSC is cheaper to make than Hart. Hhas King and Bilson who most likely make more than the youngsters on TSC. plus Hart is filmed in LA studios while TSC is filmed in, form what I gathered online, in Vancouver. So, set is cheaper for TSC too.

    I could of swore you were the one that claimed not long ago that Rachel and King probably didn’t get much because to you they “aren’t that famous”.

  • Sophia

    I don’t know why people even argue about which show is cheap to produce when nobody here will even know.

  • Natalia

    @Micheal

    the prixes could be endorsements though. Like when you meniton the mdoel will be on cover of VOGUE, you are getting the name of the magzine out there. So, they probably don’t pay much or anything on the prizes. And you don’t pay for a modeling contract. I know because my sister in Chicago went to a modeling agency and they offered her a good contract for FREE.

    Reality shows are always cheaper than scripted show, overall.

  • Anya

    The Secret Circle has been a big flop and I don’t think it’s going to have a long run on the CW. But I think it will get 13 more episodes next fall.

    If the CW knows what’s good for it, it will start doing a lot more of those 13-episode runs and will have some midseason and cheap reality shows waiting to replace anything that performs badly. At least some of its problems this year were due to sticking with bad horses too long (Ringer, at the very least, shouldn’t have gotten airtime in the spring).

  • Natalia

    @sophia

    they are beyond, a lot more famus than TSC stars!

    I even told you once that Bilson was top 5 of famous CW stars, no TSC was on that list for me! and everyone knows teens/ yound adult actors with low profiles get paid a lot less

  • Natalia

    @vic

    we don’t know that. Poeple could easily bore of Hart over the summer. come one the show is not that interesting compared to TSC.

  • MaryAnn

    What I wish is that they could give Ringer and Fringe each a 13 episode order to finish out their story lines, one to air in the fall and one in the spring, thus sharing a time slot. But that sounds too reasonable for them to actually do it. lol

  • rob60990

    If The Secret Circle cannot even do well with the CW’s best lead-in, how well can it possibly do when moved to another timeslot most likely Fridays?

  • Natalia

    WOW, TSC got one .5 while Hart got 3. Let’s give TSC the benefit of the doubt this week. How about that?

  • Natalia

    @rob60990

    it most likely won’t do well, but don’t you think CW could at least try?
    its not like Ringer or Hart would do any better nex fall on friday. If TSC fails with 13 episodes then it fails.

  • Natalia

    @sophia

    again, you twisted my words or got confused. I once said Bilson was fmaus but not as famous as Gellar or GG stars. I NEVER ONCE MENTIONED kings of bilson not bing paid a lot.

    You always do this though, so I’m not surpised

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