CW: Do Recent Ratings Lows Put 'The Secret Circle' In Danger Of Being Canceled?

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Ringer :cry: :cry: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.81
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 1.02
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
One Tree Hill final season 1.10
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

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After The Secret Circle hit a series low 0.5 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday, the commenter cries began "Worse than Hart Of Dixie!", "As bad as Ringer!", not to mention the retentionistas that have had their knives out for the show all season.

Does its late season ratings plunge pull it off the "likely to be renewed" list? I don't think so, at least not yet, but I'm first to admit there's no data to back me up.

It's very rare that a show that's done reasonably well (ignore the retentionistas) for 90% of the season takes a relative ratings dive at the end like that, so I don't have any data on what that might portend.

That being the case, I'm going with something like "too little, too late", figuring that while renewal decisions have not been announced, the season's ratings history on TSC had minds at the CW already substantially made up to renew the show. But I'm in uncharted waters with that leap.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Petar

    gustavo:
    Cancel the whole network. The ratings of every single show of this netwok are worst than bad.I would move TVD to NBC (where the ratings are similar) and end with the other shows.

    THIS!!!!!!!!

  • Patriot

    @Dennis
    Ur such a jackass, Nikita need to be renewed you can’t lose two smoking hot girl like Maggie and lyndsy. If you are a real man, better think like a man!

  • scifi

    Just saw in the secret circle promo: “1 episode left before finale” (not season finale!). But in supernatural promo “2 episodes before SEASON finale”!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Just saw in the secret circle promo: “1 episode left before finale” (not season finale!). But in supernatural promo “2 episodes before SEASON finale”!

    Meaningless. Networks do not surprise announce renewals or cancellations in promos.

  • WB

    1. THE VAMPIRE DIARIES should be renewed because it is obviously The CW’s #1 show, but it’s ratings are slowly dropping! I think this show should end in 2015 after six seasons.

    2. SUPERNATURAL should be renewed because it is another show to stick on The CW’s Friday Night, and it is doing pretty decent (CW-standards) on Friday, but I don’t see it going pass Season 8, and Season 9 is possible and probably the final.

    3. 90210 should be renewed because it will finish this season with 92 episodes, almost 100 episodes and it’s ratings has been decent (again CW-standards). I think 90210 should end in 2014 after six seasons, but Season 5 could possibly be it’s last.

    4. THE SECRET CIRCLE has been doing pretty well after THE VAMPIRE DIAIRES, but now it’s ratings are extremely dropping to .5 range. It seems that it is going in NIKITA’s footstep (if renewed, maybe placed on fridays too!?). I think it should be renewed just because it has some sort of potential.

    5. HART OF DIXIE is The CW’s lightest show like some of The WB Classics especially GILMORE GIRLS! I think it should be renewed because it has been able to find its own audience and it has been able to be stable especially behind low rated GOSSIP GIRL (which its ratings has dropped below the 1 million mark). I think HART OF DIXIE could do well for The CW with a little bit more promotion unlike this year, but it’s possible The CW might cancel it.

    6. GOSSIP GIRL has been The CW’s favorite! and was a hit once upon a time! Even though I think Season 5 should be it’s lasts, it should be tributed and renewed for a final Season 6 like how ONE TREE HILL was treated!

    7. NIKITA was a hit on Thursdays last year but again it’s ratings had declined after THE VAMPIRE DIARIES like how THE SECRET CIRCLE is doing right now! I think this show had its second chance, but didn’t quite make a difference but declined lower with a lot of .4?s, but yet Supernatural is not even that close and it’s BEHIND Nikita. Nikita, in my opinion should be cancelled.

    8. Many people thought RINGER would be an instant hit! (I DONT THINK SO). RINGER was the most promoted out of any freshman show on The CW and yet it stilled flopped! This show would have been better on CBS or FOX, just like NIKITA. RINGER is the first show on my cancellation list! Sorry Sarah!

    9. and lastly good ole AMERICA’s NEXT TOP MODEL! It is the only show renewed by The CW. It has been doing great for The CW, but has been suddenly affected by “””THE CW INSTANT DROP PHENOMENON!””. ANTM has gotten old and I think it’s about that time to end it after next year or maybe try something new as putting it a summer series! I also think ANTM should move to fridays. hmmmm idk!?

  • Rachel

    The CW will pick up 4 shows during the fall, 1 mid-season replacement and possibly 1 scripted series for the summer of 2013 since the president wants year round programming.

    I’m predicting The Carrie Diaries, Arrow, Beauty & The Beast and First Cut. Cult as a mid-season replacement and Shelter as a summer series.

    The reason I didn’t include The Selection is because I think it will be competing against B&tB for that slot behind TVD. And B&tB will win. I just can’t see the CW picking up all of these sci-fi and fantasy shows. There needs to be some diversity so they will go definitely go with medical drama First Cut. And with the success of OUAT I think B&tB has it. Call me crazy but I don’t think The Selection will be picked up.

    Shelter as a summer series makes sense because it’s the only pilot that takes place during the summer. Plus they’ve cast a bunch of no name faces so if it flops it’s not like they’re gonna lose a ton of money.

  • Leeland

    The CW needs to think and make a total re-brand! It has been 6 years and still no good success other than THE VAMPIRE DIARIES. It’s sad when cable networks like ABC family is beating this network! The CW needs something new; a new image and a new ‘ feel ‘ . If The CW is trying to appeal younger audience these days, they need to be diverse about it and bring something to the table that the audience can relate to and give them something that is worth watching! I think The CW needs to be more creative with their promos and be more fun and welcoming to their viewers. They need to make watching tv fun! The CW needs to be more like MTV/ABC Family. I think they should open programming on the weekends too, because right now the network is DEAD and DULL.

    The CW’s “LAUGH OUT LOUD” Sunday: The CW needs a comedy block airing show’s
    They can use this slogan to promote the block: “TV TO LAUGH ABOUT ”

    7:00/6c AMERICA’s NEXT TOP MODEL (E)/NEW REALITY
    8:00/7c COMEDY
    8:30/7c COMEDY
    9:00/8c HART OF DIXIE/FIRST CUT

    The CW Monday
    8:00/7c GOSSIP GIRL “The Final Season” (The CW could promote a ‘Countdown to Goodbye’ tribute)/CULT
    9:00/8c 90210 (new night and time)

    The CW’s New Tuesday
    8:00/7c ARROW
    9:00/8c THE SELECTION

    The CW Wednesday
    8:00/7c THE CARRIE DIARIES
    9:00/8c AMERICA’s NEXT TOP MODEL/ SHELTER

    The CW Thursday
    8:00/7c THE VAMPIRE DIARIES
    9:00/8c BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

    The CW Friday
    8:00/7c THE SECRET CIRCLE
    9:00/8c SUPERNATURAL

    The CW Saturday
    8:00/7c A SKETCH COMEDY/MUSIC VIDEO
    9:00/8c A GAME SHOW/GAME REALITY

    The CW Would be more interesting! : )

    Don’t get me started on a midnight schedule haha

  • Rachel

    And with that being said this is what I think the schedule could look like.

    MONDAY:
    90210
    First Cut

    Tuesday:
    The Secret Circle
    Arrow

    Wednesday:
    GG(final 13)/ANTM
    The Carrie Diaries

    Thursday:
    TVD
    B&tB (or The Selection maybe)

    Friday:
    Supernatural
    Nikita(final 13)/The Cult

    Summer:
    Shelter and some flop reality shows

  • dryr

    I’m addicted to Vamp Diaries, but I can’t stand SC and it’s supposed to be the same demo.

  • brian

    Secret Circle will not be cancelled. CW cannot admit their slate of new shows are all failures (the Body of Proof effect). Since Secret Circle has higher ratings than Hart of Dixie and Nikita, it will be renewed. Question is, will Secret Circle be moved to Fridays next year?

  • krell

    PLZZZ!!!!
    Hart Of Dixie is NO or Nowhere Near like the classic Gilmore Girls.
    HoD is more like Disney’s tweeny lame show Hannah Montana.

  • Beelzebub

    Ringer is the only show on that list worth watching. I vote dump all the others and save Ringer. :(

  • jae

    HoD is more like Disney’s tweeny lame show Hannah Montana.

    You’ve clearly never seen HOD or don’t even know what Hannah Montana is about, that is the most stupidest comparison ever.

    That’s just like saying Grey’s Anatomy is like Gossip Girl.

  • Justin121

    ^ Grey’s Anatomy is like Gossip Girl.

  • Seymour

    TSC is a solid scripted tv show with a good story and cast. That is lf course debateable. But nobody knows why anybody watches anything and that is proven every tv year. What is worse, those being vocal about “bad” shows more often than not do not even watch the shows that they hate and slam and will make idiotic comparisons like Hannah Montana to Hart of Dixie, which is just a very clear declaration that they have no clue. GG and HoD are similar in sooo many ways, the best of which I think and enjoy is a slice of quirky small town life.

    Anyways, I do hope that the CW keeps TSC and HoD…. from their low overall ratings, it is clear that audiences do not have much confidence in the network at all and are unwilling to take a chance on watching and possibly getting invested in a CW show knowing that it most likely will not return next season. So I would think that they do have more room to let lower rated shows go through, if for no other reason than giving the tv audience some confidence that shows might last on their network.

  • The Carrie Diaries

    OK.. NIKITA NEVER FELL TO A 0.5/1 18-49DEMO NEXT TO TVD ! Having a 0.5/1 after NETWORK’s MOST WATCHED SCI-FI/FANTASY SERIES Is Intolerable. The Secret Circle have to be cancelled. [The first part of the season was great, Lot of Action & Mistery. But They’ve brought so many people back to life , that it became stupid !]

  • MHunt

    Secret Circle’s demise is because of the month and a half hiatus it took in Feb and March. If you notice all the shows that took off during that time dropped in ratings because most viewers found something else to watch, probably not what they would have initially picked but something is better than nothing and now they’re into whatever show they switched to. I know that’s my case as now I have two other shows recording when SC is on. Oh well, maybe if they switch nites they might be able to get a following back.

  • Natalia

    I’ve been suoer busy to even come on this site and I just found out about the whole 6 pilot possibility!

    Woah! I would have rpedicted 4 max but if Daedline say 6 is a possibility then it might happen. WB and CBS must have been generous!

    My predictions judging by reports/spoilers:
    1. arrow – OTH replacement
    2. Carrie diaries- Ringer replacement
    3. First Cut (this is non-sci fi, and MArk said he wants diversity and this pilot offers it)- HOD replacement
    4. Selection- Nikita replacement
    (.5 )Cult as obvious GG replacement
    6. Beauty- TSC replacement

    makes sense in a way to get 6 I guess.

  • Natalia

    ^again sorry for typo’s. Im typing during a class and I need to type quickly!

  • Natalia

    And I don’t care whether Shelter hasn’t been vieweed. It sounds boring and the pilot would have to blow Selection or Beauty out of the water. Since it sounds as if Selection and Beauty are strong but on the lower end of the “strong” list. So, those are the two competitions for Shelter, and I jsut don’t see it being more intreseting. But then again I could be wrong since Mark wants diversity…

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