CW: Do Recent Ratings Lows Put 'The Secret Circle' In Danger Of Being Canceled?

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Ringer :cry: :cry: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.81
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 1.02
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
One Tree Hill final season 1.10
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

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After The Secret Circle hit a series low 0.5 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday, the commenter cries began "Worse than Hart Of Dixie!", "As bad as Ringer!", not to mention the retentionistas that have had their knives out for the show all season.

Does its late season ratings plunge pull it off the "likely to be renewed" list? I don't think so, at least not yet, but I'm first to admit there's no data to back me up.

It's very rare that a show that's done reasonably well (ignore the retentionistas) for 90% of the season takes a relative ratings dive at the end like that, so I don't have any data on what that might portend.

That being the case, I'm going with something like "too little, too late", figuring that while renewal decisions have not been announced, the season's ratings history on TSC had minds at the CW already substantially made up to renew the show. But I'm in uncharted waters with that leap.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Natalia

    This was just posted on Variety (don’t know how reputable this site is):

    “The CW could also very well discard every scripted rookie it bowed last fall — “Ringer,” “Secret Circle” and “Hart of Dixie” – because net execs are so high on this year’s development crop.

    The return of “Gossip Girl” is a no-brainer, though don’t be surprised if CW orders only 13 episodes for a final season. Second-year drama “Nikita” is also very much on the bubble, though the sexy actioner has strong support as a 9 p.m. news lead-in from the CW’s core Tribune stations.

    In the first season of development under CW prexy Mark Pedowitz, a house cleaning would make way for highly promotable properties: the “Sex and the City” prequel “The Carrie Diaries,” the DC Comics’ adaptation “Arrow,” the redo of the 1980s drama “Beauty and the Beast” and thriller “The Cult,” which is expected to land a midseason order. “First Cut,” a drama about a medical intern played by Mamie Gumer, has also drawn raves in the early screenings.”

    All of it make sense except the whole Nikita/ Tirbune news thing. What are they talking about?! I have no clue

  • claudia

    And I don’t care whether Shelter hasn’t been vieweed. It sounds boring and the pilot would have to blow Selection or Beauty out of the water. Since it sounds as if Selection and Beauty are strong but on the lower end of the “strong” list. So, those are the two competitions for Shelter, and I jsut don’t see it being more intreseting. But then again I could be wrong since Mark wants diversity…

    Sci-fi shows are no competition for a Drama. Not when a network wants diversity. First Cut would be Shelter’s competition. If Shelter screens better than First Cut then we’ll see. You can’t count out something just because you don’t think it sounds interesting. You haven’t read the script.

  • Mickey 1.0

    http://www.tvfortherestofus.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=182%3Around-two-cw-schedule-speculation-predictions-and-analysis&catid=54%3Ageneral-television&limitstart=1

    Interesting predictions and analysis of possible pick-ups and schedules. I like Alice’s way of looking at things on page 2.

    A couple of interesting tidbits. She had also heard what Jim Beaver was talking about at the con in Rome this past weekend. He didn’t just talk about a new “showrunner” but a new “prodcuction staff.”

    Jim said: “The show hasn’t been officially picked up since I checked the news yesterday. But they just hired new production staff, so…. you don’t sign contracts with people only to fire them a week later. I think the show will come back for season 8. I have a pretty good feeling it will be around for longer than that.”

    Alice said: ““Supernatural” just got a new showrunner, but it’s former producer Jeremy Carver who left his own show on SyFy to come back and co-run the series. I heard a new production team has been hired, so chances are they aren’t coming in for just a one season deal in mind.”

    This is also interesting for Nikita fans: “After talking with “Nikita’s” showrunner/executive producer Craig Silverstien at C2E2 a few weeks ago, I actually like “Nikita’s” chances now. Silverstein hasn’t heard from the network one way or another, but he said that he won renewal last year by going in after filming the season finale and giving the network a great pitch for season two. He said he has a great pitch for season three. He found out his show was renewed two days before upfronts last year, and expects to get the news in that time frame again this year.” There’s a link to her talk with Silverstein in the article.

  • Mickey 1.0

    Here’s a link to the article with Jim’s quote (in a separate post to escape the spam filter.)

    http://www.tvovermind.com/supernatural/supernatural-jib-con-jensen-ackles-jared-padalecki-misha-collins-jim-beaver-and-more/

  • Mickey 1.0

    @Gustavo and Petar
    gustavo:
    Cancel the whole network. The ratings of every single show of this netwok are worst than bad.I would move TVD to NBC (where the ratings are similar) and end with the other shows.

    THIS!!!!!!!!

    WB president recently said they are making a profit with international sales. Plus they are looking into ways of incorporating online viewing, such as selling package-deal ads for both the live shows and online viewings (which is where a lot of their viewers have gone) which could turn out to work very well financially. They’re also making good money off their Netflix and Hulu deals. So long as they are making a profit, there’s no reason to deep-six the network. A network lives or dies by its financial bottom line, not just its ratings.

  • Melanie

    If the pilots are strong, I think TSC will be cancelled. And honestly, I think it will go before Nikita.
    If there was any indication that TSC was on anyting other than a downward trajectory ratings-wise — it might have a chance. But it hasn’t stabilized – its just drifting downward. Its already too weak to be a lead-in for a new show. It can’t stay behind TVD – its wasting the only decent lead-in the CW has. So what to do with it? Move it to follow a self starting new show? Why saddle a new show with baggage like that? Pair it with 90210 or GG or ANTM? Maybe, but it doesn’t seem all that compatible with those shows. Fridays at 8? Its already falling to Nikita levels and Friday will kill it – why not leave Nikita where it is and save the promo dollars needed to publicize a schedule change?
    Personally, I’ve been watching TSC and IMO its bad. Poorly written characters haven’t jelled — unlike TVD the highschool drama is not compelling — a show about witches ought to be more interesting. Its not.
    Also IMO, Nikita is a higher quality show – writing & acting-wise, production values, action sequences — If I was choosing between the two – I’d keep Nikita where it is and clear out another space on the M-TH schedule for a new show that at least has the possibility of doing better than TSC. HOD is an interesting case – its had a terrible lead-in and its ratings have been up and down – perhaps indicating that with a little push it might do better. Both Ringer and TSC were given promo pushes with little to show for it. Who knows if HOD would have gained from it? Maybe it would work with First Cut.

  • Mickey 1.0

    p.s. Actually, I think even more than that it’s useful to keep the CW running as a testing ground. It’s on the frontline of the shift to DVR and online viewing, and the WB and the CBS knows this will affect them in the future. The CW serves as a guinea pig to see what will work and what won’t.

  • claudia

    I hope the network picks up Joey Dakota just to suck it to all the naysayers.

  • Natalia

    @Claudia

    Joey has already been viewed and according to reports, especially Deadline, the other pilots were better. Those shows are in the running while Joey has like no momentum. Sorry

  • claudia

    @natalia

    I know that. I can read.

  • claudia

    And Deadline never said the other pilots were better. They said JD was risky.

  • Natalia

    Thi sis a predication from Atlantic Wire:
    “While, again, everything on the network is technically in doubt right now, things especially in doubt are Sarah Michelle Gellar’s sputtering comeback project Ringer, the increasingly dopey 90210, wobbly witch hour The Secret Circle, Maggie Q’s actioner Nikita, and Rachel Bilson’s mostly nonexistent Hart of Dixie. (That one’s pretty much guaranteed dead.)”

    I am so sick of sites having 90210 as “coudl go either way” or near cancellation. What are these people on? 90210 is now looking like the third best show on the network

  • Natalia

    @Claudia

    Oh sorry. I didn’t realize that you had even seen the articlebecause if you did you would know that Dakota has no chance in hell!

    The other pilots got pretty much “rave” reviews. They said Dakot was risky wbut like dteh musical parts- that’s not a “rave” review

  • claudia

    Didn’t I just say “to suck it to the naysayers“? I know JD doesn’t have a chance. Clearly you didn’t get that is I was joking. I’m not living in a fantasy land. I know exactly what Deadline is reporting.

  • Natalia

    @Claudia

    Okay then. But the fact you didn’t say that before made me think you were rooting for a Dakota pickup. Wow, my mad…

  • Natalia

    ^ I meant to say: my bad

  • claudia

    @natalia

    no. i really don’t care which pilots they go with. but even if i was rooting for joey dakota that makes it okay for you to jump down my throat and be condescending? just because you don’t think it should be picked up? that’s pretty lame.

  • Natalia

    @Claudia

    Do you realize what you have been doing this whole time?

    You have a really negative tone in ALL of you sentences. I was just trying to show perhaps soemone who wasn’t aware of the Daedline report because not everyone is. I said “my bad” and YOU are jumping down my thorat!

    I have met some annoying people on this site but all in all they have been polite and understanding. You, however, have the nastiest attitude that I have come accross this whole board :(

  • claudia

    @natalia

    Those shows are in the running while Joey has like no momentum. Sorry

    Oh sorry. I didn’t realize that you had even seen the articlebecause if you did you would know that Dakota has no chance in hell!

    The other pilots got pretty much “rave” reviews. They said Dakot was risky wbut like dteh musical parts- that’s not a “rave” review

    do you not realize how condescending these replies are? there are nicer ways to fill someone in. it’s like you’re throwing it my face that the show won’t be picked up. you were being really rude. and i’m the one with the nasty attitude? i only have a nasty attitude because of how condescending you are…

  • Natalia

    @claudia

    do you realize that comment could have been a joke!

    Oh and you commented on my Shelter comment and you were still rude too! Go back and see what you wrote. You were rude first!

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