CW: Do Recent Ratings Lows Put 'The Secret Circle' In Danger Of Being Canceled?

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Ringer :cry: :cry: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.81
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 1.02
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
One Tree Hill final season 1.10
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

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After The Secret Circle hit a series low 0.5 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday, the commenter cries began "Worse than Hart Of Dixie!", "As bad as Ringer!", not to mention the retentionistas that have had their knives out for the show all season.

Does its late season ratings plunge pull it off the "likely to be renewed" list? I don't think so, at least not yet, but I'm first to admit there's no data to back me up.

It's very rare that a show that's done reasonably well (ignore the retentionistas) for 90% of the season takes a relative ratings dive at the end like that, so I don't have any data on what that might portend.

That being the case, I'm going with something like "too little, too late", figuring that while renewal decisions have not been announced, the season's ratings history on TSC had minds at the CW already substantially made up to renew the show. But I'm in uncharted waters with that leap.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • vic

    @ Natalia 0.5 in time slot after TVD is worse then three 0.5s on Monday.

  • Michael

    Lets face it, the CW had absolutely no faith in Hart Of Dixie. However, they had much bigger hopes for Secret Circle.

    1) Paired with TVD (Highest rated show on the network).
    2) While, TVD and TSC are two completely different shows, the show is based on the book series by LJ Smith.
    3) Advertisement

    Yes, the show only fell to a 0.5 once, but it’s quite alarming how sharply the decline has been for the freshman series.

  • Natalia

    @vic

    unfortunatly, CW won’t see it that way.
    Last year, Nikita lost a good chunk of VD vewiers and got renewed. Hellcats didn’t have as big of a lead-in and got cancelled. Because your logic doesn’t work with networks

    You are officially a Retentionista!

  • vic

    @ Natalia “the show is not that interesting compared to TSC”

    TSC is less interesting even for W18-34 according to ratings.

  • Natalia

    @Micheal

    they did have faith in HArt because they believed Bilson would bring in the viewers! the shows they did not have faith in was Nikita and once again SPN because fo the lack of promo and the time slots. I also saw Bilson do a lot more interviews than SPN and Nikita stars combined. Im sorry but Hart pulled .8′s and a .9, it was doing fairly well in the fall those viewers jsut didnt like it. Simple

  • sayra quezada rios

    Cancel GOSSIP GIRL HART OF DIXIE AND NIKITA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Natalia

    @vic

    that just shows perhaps TSC is seen by more males which is good for this network. they need more of a variety in viewers! CW doesn’t care that much for w18-34 anyway,. Last year, Hellcats OUTDID Nikita in taht demo by miles and still got cancelled

  • SmG

    I guess it all comes down to how much budget they will give to Mark P.

    If we look at the pilot reviews and recent speculations about possible pickups, almost all of the pilots seem to have a chance, and if we look at the current ratings they are horrible. So its simple math, putting a new show instead of a show which has started hitting 0.4/0.5 seem to be worth the risk. Mark P. will try to pick up as many new shows as he can in the limits of the total budget. The shows that will survive this season, will survive just because of this and probably next season will be their last unless their ratings surprisingly increase.

  • Natalia

    @SmG

    also the fact that most of the piltos were filmed in Canada which is cheap gives them a good chance. I wouldnt mind if Mark cancelled all three new shows, but will he want to admit defeat? thats the real question

  • Brandy

    I just want VD, SC, GG,HoD renewed.I think ringer &nikita re certain to be cancelled,Hod & SC are on bubble,could go either way.

  • Stelios Touchtidis

    I watch both Hart and Secret Circle–but I like Hart much more. It’d be a shame if they cancel this heartwarming show. Secret Circle could easily be fixed (they need to give Faye and Dawn more time, and get rid of Melissa) but the writers seem to be completely unaware of the appeal of the actual actors playing the parts.

  • vic

    @Natalia Last year Nikita had better perspectives than Hellcats. Hellcats dropped as rapidly as TSC now. And I thought “Hellcats should be cancelled first” ? year ago.

    And I repeat you again: I don’t like HOD! Can you understand it?

  • vic

    @ Natalia “that just shows perhaps TSC is seen by more males which is good for this network.”

    That just shows TSC is seen by more W12-18. Is it good for any network?

  • Brandy

    Micheal, cw did have faith in HoD,nit was well promoted,they gave it a full season,they gave it reruns on another night,they did an ad congratulating it on the Pca nomination.

  • Natalia

    @vic
    Nikita dropped with DV lead in. Poeple were worried how it would do on its own on friday too, you know.

    You don’t like HOD, really? because you sound pretty set on giving a failing freshmen show a second chance. Then you must be either Brandy or Sophia set in disguise. But eitehr way don’t ever go into business or try to run a network because you will land in debt ;)

  • Natalia

    “that just shows TSC is seen by more W12-18. Is it good for any network?”

    if that were true its ratings would be lower. Nielson doesnt account for people below 18, you know!

    w18-34 is a small porrtion of veiwers. How about those abouve 34 age? How a bout the males from 18 to 49. They could be watching TSC.

  • CrimTV

    When people say “TSC will be cancelled because it has had one of the highest drops since the premiere”, yes maybe it has, but that’s because it premiered much higher than HOD and other dramas on the network.

  • SmG

    @Natalia, I guess he may try to renew one or two of them for 13 episodes and try them in a different time slot. But I think even if he cancels all of the new shows, it would not be admitting defeat for him because he could not completely control this seasons pickups. I think next season will be the real test for him. But of course it would be admitting defeat for CW in general. I mean Beautiful life, Melrose Place, Life Unexpected, Hellcats and plus these shows, just one hit show (TVD) in three seasons.

  • Natalia

    @vic

    wait to see how TSC does on thursday at least. Could you do that?

  • I don’t cwingo

    I know this site is focused on the numbers (numbers being in the name at all) but can you even look at the numbers with a network that is so dismal across the board? Wouldn’t a network like the CW be as focused (if not more focused) on the general talked-about-ness of their shows? That’s an upper hand that Gossip Girl, Hart of Dixie, Nikita, and even Ringer have over Secret Circle — no one talks about SC. There are no stars, no actors who have broken out, no buzzy love triangles. I think that, combined with its severe audience drops from TVD, could put it in as much danger as the lower rated but more talked about shows.

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