CW: Do Recent Ratings Lows Put 'The Secret Circle' In Danger Of Being Canceled?

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Ringer :cry: :cry: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.81
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 1.02
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
One Tree Hill final season 1.10
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

-

After The Secret Circle hit a series low 0.5 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday, the commenter cries began "Worse than Hart Of Dixie!", "As bad as Ringer!", not to mention the retentionistas that have had their knives out for the show all season.

Does its late season ratings plunge pull it off the "likely to be renewed" list? I don't think so, at least not yet, but I'm first to admit there's no data to back me up.

It's very rare that a show that's done reasonably well (ignore the retentionistas) for 90% of the season takes a relative ratings dive at the end like that, so I don't have any data on what that might portend.

That being the case, I'm going with something like "too little, too late", figuring that while renewal decisions have not been announced, the season's ratings history on TSC had minds at the CW already substantially made up to renew the show. But I'm in uncharted waters with that leap.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Alex C

    Idiot logic continue to be said by certain peeps. It is lame to have a vendetta against TSC and yet I keep saying look at the ratings for season. It doesn’t matter that its after TVD, saying that you mind as well factor Thurs at 8pm. I watch every show on CW at moment (except Top Model). I know what I would do.

  • Pete

    @vic

    I have lurked here for months now and pretty much every post you make is dissing TSC

    You clearly have something against it and this was before it started dropping.

  • Natalia

    @SmG

    yeah and so many people laugh about this network and it has such a bad stigma that I don’t see how it will recover once they announce cancellations for all freshmen shows. But, I do understand that it’s not Mark’s fault too. But I still don’t know… Im confused on this whole situation

  • John

    Here’s what I think should happen: give Secret Circle and Hart of Dixie each a thirteen episode order next season, air one in the fall, one in the spring, that way if either one underperforms the network won’t take that big a loss. Realistically I think that Nikita and Ringer will be canceled, and if push comes to shove the network will renew The Secret Circle over Hart of Dixie.

  • Natalia

    @vic
    I don’t like TSC that much. The creators have wasted its potential but I am not going to let my bias get in the way of what is most logical. As much as I liked Ringer, Im not going to sit here and be like Ringer will get renewed or TSC because Ringer has a lot of repeats as a lead in.

  • vic

    @ Natalia I would cancel all 3 current new shows. I wrote about HOD renewal only because of “renewal pity” theory.

    If you so smart business woman “buy TSC stocks” and we will see how soon you will go bankrupt next TV season :wink;

  • Natalia

    @vic

    no ones going to buy ” Hart stocks” either lol.

  • vic

    @ Pete “I have lurked here for months now and pretty much every post you make is dissing TSC. You clearly have something against it and this was before it started dropping.”

    It’s true. I posted about TSC bacause I didn’t agree with it’s status and comparison of it’s ratings with other’s without recalculation.

  • Mickey 1.0

    @Bill
    t’s very rare that a show that’s done reasonably well (ignore the retentionistas) for 90% of the season takes a relative ratings dive at the end like that, so I don’t have any data on what that might portend.

    I wasn’t following the ratings back then so I’m sketchy on the details, but didn’t Hellcats follow much the same trajectory as TSC and they cancelled it in the end?

    Even if that’s the case, it’s still not much to go on.

    I don’t envy Pedowitz the choices he has to make. Though for starters he should just announce renewals for SPN and TVD already. That’s a no brainer.

  • Sarah

    Hart of Dixie and Ringer are near being announced as cancelled. Sorry but get over it.

    The Secret Circle is hanging by a thread.

    From what I hear, there is big chance they will bring in 4 new shows. The Secret Circle may not be in in top 4 for cancellation but if it falls any lower than a .5, CW could easily replace it with Cult which is cheap. Cult is definetley in the running but might miss out on top 4 spots unnless Circle drastically fails soon.

  • Natalia

    @Sarah

    Secret Circle cancellation for Cult? Im in.

    I want Cult and Fist Cut!!!! make it happen Sarah, you or your intern friend whatever!!!

    of is he/she like a “coffee person” who doesn’t have much say?

  • Alex C

    @Mickey1.0

    What doomed “Hellcats” was moving it from Weds. to Tues.

  • Natalia

    Oh, now Im excited. If they announce First Cut and Cult, I might burst into joy! I want both.

    I have to go now because of work. Goodbye all for now.

    P.S. Sarah, tell your intern friend NOBODY wants Carrie Dairies!

  • Mickey 1.0

    If they do renew TSC, I hope they don’t move it to Fridays. If it’s already getting 0.6s and now 0.5 on Thursdays with TVD as a lead in, what’s in going to get on Fridays? 0.4s?

    Supernatural spent the whole year with the network’s lowest rated lead-in (nothing against Nikita, just looking at the numbers.) It would be nice if next year we had a better lead-in. (Though obviously all they can put there that might do better is a new show, and they may not want to premiere one on a Friday.)

  • Alex C

    @Sarah

    4 pilots is what I see as well. You mention “Cult” which I know is a 13 episode only season show and if GG is brought back for a final 13 episode season, it would fit. That is part of the reason I see two cancellations when it is said and done.

  • billy martins

    i think they shall renew the secert circle for one more season it still follows good with vampire daries on thursday what they shall get rid of is ringer,gossip girl,hart of dixie,90210,nitika,supernatural,and save vampire daries and america’s next top model.

  • Aerilyn

    I’m just keeping my fingers crossed that the CW will renew TSC. It has become such a good show since it started, and it honestly deserves a 2nd season. Everything has improved so much with the show, that I’m just hoping the CW renews it soon.

    I’m hoping this week’s ratings will be higher up since last week’s episode was pretty mind blowing!

  • Percysowner

    I wouldnt mind if Mark cancelled all three new shows, but will he want to admit defeat? thats the real question

    If there is ever a good season to admit defeat it is one where you take over for another programmer. Whether true or not, the situation can be seen as having allowed Dawn Ostroff too much input into the schedule. If Mark cancels all the new shows, he doesn’t have to take the blame. I have no idea what he will cancel. TSC looks unlikely to succeed away from TVD, but it isn’t doing well enough to justify keeping it in a plum stop. Ringer should be dead both because of its low ratings and because it was highly promoted and had really good sampling at the beginning. I love Nikita, but acknowledge that its ratings justify its cancellation. If it lives, it will only be because MP feels every other show will do as badly or worse in the time slot. The CW is in sad shape, and I really hope they can pull something off to make them work. It looks unlikely, but I hope they can anyway.

  • Alex C

    I am disappointed that “Ringer” took too long for certain payoffs that should of happen why before finale. I feel “90210” is losing direction. I would renew TSC, Nikita, HoD, and GG for a 13 episode final season.

  • Sid

    A little off-topic but anyone here(besides me) excited for Felicia Day’s stint on Supernatural this week? :D

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures