CW: Do Recent Ratings Lows Put 'The Secret Circle' In Danger Of Being Canceled?

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Ringer :cry: :cry: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.81
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 1.02
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
One Tree Hill final season 1.10
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

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After The Secret Circle hit a series low 0.5 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday, the commenter cries began "Worse than Hart Of Dixie!", "As bad as Ringer!", not to mention the retentionistas that have had their knives out for the show all season.

Does its late season ratings plunge pull it off the "likely to be renewed" list? I don't think so, at least not yet, but I'm first to admit there's no data to back me up.

It's very rare that a show that's done reasonably well (ignore the retentionistas) for 90% of the season takes a relative ratings dive at the end like that, so I don't have any data on what that might portend.

That being the case, I'm going with something like "too little, too late", figuring that while renewal decisions have not been announced, the season's ratings history on TSC had minds at the CW already substantially made up to renew the show. But I'm in uncharted waters with that leap.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Mark

    MONDAY:
    8pm – Arrow
    9pm – Hart of Dixie

    The CW is in no position to be using its current drama’s as lead ins(except TVD) so most of their fall dramas will have to be self starters. Arrow will strengthen Monday. Leave Hart of Dixie where it is and if Arrow is successful, it should grow.

    TUESDAY:
    8pm – Cult
    9pm – The Selection

    Turn Tuesdays into a thriller night. All new shows.

    WEDNESDAY:
    8pm – 90210
    9pm – ANTM

    Veteran’s night.

    THURSDAY:
    8pm – The Vampire Diaries
    9pm – The Carrie Diaries

    TVD’s audience has shown that it needs something light hearted and fun to watch after their minds have been blown by an awesome episode of TVD. The Carrie Diaries would be the perfect fit. And think of all the promotion possibilities with them both have “diaries” in the title.

    FRIDAY:
    8pm – The Secret Circle
    9pm – Supernatural

    I think TSC has a loyal fan base and will follow the show to Friday. And people will catch up over the summer and it could premiere to as well as a .7 in the fall.

  • Alex C

    @Sid

    Always excited for “Supernatural”

  • Adrian

    TSC will be renewed. I agree that it’s sort of a “too little, too late” situation. There’s only 3 episodes left, unless it somehow fell to 0.4 and stayed there, it is renewed.

    But it will be next year’s Nikita. Wherever it’s placed it will continue to lose viewers. If it is placed in a weekday, I can maybe see it stabilize at 0.5-0.6 like GG. If it is on Fridays I can see it go as low as 0.4-0.3

    I think it’s Friday bound though, unless by some miracle they decide to keep Nikita. No way they are going to premiere a new show on Friday.

    “If Mark cancels all the new shows, he doesn’t have to take the blame.”
    I agree. This season’s pilots and schedule was all Dawn. He didn’t have any input.

  • Franko

    TSC should be canceled because if they renew it for season 2, it will happen the same thing that happened to Nikita this season. :/ Plus, Ringer and HOD can even get a pass on that they have weak lead ins, what’s TSC’s excuse? Going after TVD, two shows that should share almost the same audience due to thematics?

  • Mark

    Forgot to add Midseason:

    Midseason:
    Shelter
    Gossip Girl (6-8 episode final season)

  • Millie

    I don’t think they’re canceling secret circle. Even vampire dairies hit a season low on Thursday 4 some reason. Tsc was number 2 show 4 most of the season nd cw nos they did it no favors with the long breaks I’m between shows. I’m counting on a season 2 .

  • Jake

    Last year, Nikita lost a good chunk of VD vewiers and got renewed. Hellcats didn’t have as big of a lead-in and got cancelled.

    Using that as a logic for renewing TSC is flawed logic. Nikita is not doing so well this year and has not all season despite CW efforts to the contrary. Hellcats was moved during the season and had an unfortunate storyline arc which was boring, but toward the end of the season was turning around but was cancelled anyway. Too bad because with better writing and more active participation from executive producer Tom Welling, that might have been a really good match for the CW network this year.

    I agree. It’s pretty certain this show (TSC) will be renewed because the president is a coward but they’d be fools to give this show a full season. Give it 13 episodes and if the ratings don’t improve pull the plug.

    Really? Mark P. really has made no major decisions for the CW network as yet, so why are we jumping to conclusions and calling him a coward.

    Due to the low ratings this year for the CW, there is some tough decisions coming the CW’s way and I would be surprised if anything was announced for an early renewal. I would expect the announcements at Upfronts.

  • Concerned Citizen

    Monday
    8:00 – Arrow
    9:00 – The Secret Circle

    Tuesday
    8:00 – 90210
    9:00 – The Carrie Diaries

    Wednesday
    8:00 – Gossip Girl (13 episodes)/Shelter (13 episodes)
    9:00 – America’s Next Top Model

    Thursday
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 – The Selection

    Friday
    8:00 – Nikita
    9:00 – Supernatural

    (Not a Nikita fan, just don’t see The CW picking up more than four new shows)

  • Rachel

    How legit is this Sarah person… she didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know.

  • Rachel

    @Jake
    I’m calling him a coward because he’s picking up the Carrie Diaries while claiming he wants the network to take a more mature direction. Plus picking up a show that won’t last past a second season is pointless. If TSC is cancelled tomorrow no one would even notice.

  • Alex C

    @Concerned Citizen

    I only see 4 pilots as well. Some pilots with potential but not all of them are winners. It is important to have young shows that are familiar with some pilots along with vets that are near the end

  • Mae

    @ Rachel – NOTHING has been officially picked up yet. You can’t judge any decisions the new president makes until, you know, he actually makes them.

  • Kevin

    IMO the shows that should go are GG, TSC and Ringer.

    The battle for the Friday slot seems incredibly stupid to me. TSC will do worse on Friday than Nikita if you look at the pattern. TSC fits nowhere else on the schedule because the only reason the pilot was picked up is because they wanted TSC to be the second TVD, and they hoped that the TVD lead would help – both of these failed. TSC is a failure in every sense of the word and the only people that like this are the teens that like every other CW show that has teens and love triangles in it.

    GG is a disaster. I don’t care at all for HOD but honestly I think HOD is a much better replacement to GG and OTH.

    Despite enjoying Ringer, I imagine the inclusion of SMG and the lowest ratings assures us that this show is a goner.

    But lo and behold, the CW will cancel the shows that bring actual diversity to their audience because one show has a .1 rating higher than another. This entire network is a disaster and by picking up The Carrie Diaries, in my eyes, they will deserve their upcoming doom. If anyone wants to watch teen-based love drama, ABC Family does a much better job at it while being cheaper, so the CW really needs to grow up and focus on actual adults, male and female to survive.

  • Rachel

    @Mae

    Give me a fcking break. Deadline and Variety have both reported that Arrow and The Carrie Diaries are frontrunners to be picked up. They didn’t create all the buzz for those shows for no reason. Granted Shelter and B&tB haven’t been screened yet but it’s obvious there’s a 99% chance that 2 of the pilot slots have already been filled. Don’t be naive.

  • Jo

    I have an intern friend at the CW too and s/he says that all of the employees read these posts and laugh about how silly everyone is to think they “know” what the network is going to do!

  • Rachel

    I have an intern friend at the CW too and s/he says that all of the employees read these posts and laugh about how silly everyone is to think they “know” what the network is going to do!

    If Arrow and TCD don’t make it on the schedule I will eat my words.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I have an intern friend at the CW too and s/he says that all of the employees read these posts and laugh about how silly everyone is to think they “know” what the network is going to do!”

    Last season 2010-11 I predicted the CW moves 100% correctly.

    And I predicted 100% correctly in 2009-10 as well.

    And there aren’t any “interns” at the CW who know what’s going to happen. There’s no way that low level folks know anything of consequence.

  • Gaius Bolling

    I like this show BUT I feel like it has wasted the vampire diaries lead in all season. Everyone keeps talking about the ratings low from last week but it has been steadily doing worse and worse over the whole season. If this show was in Ringer’s timeslot without the cushy Vampire Diaries lead in it would be doing horrible. I very much believe that. I think they may renew it but i don’t seeing it doing great in season 2. Hell Kevin Williamson doesn’t even talk about it much anymore. He is all about talking up the vampire diaries on twitter but barely mentions this show at all

  • Adrian

    “But lo and behold, the CW will cancel the shows that bring actual diversity to their audience because one show has a .1 rating higher than another. This entire network is a disaster and by picking up The Carrie Diaries, in my eyes, they will deserve their upcoming doom. If anyone wants to watch teen-based love drama, ABC Family does a much better job at it while being cheaper, so the CW really needs to grow up and focus on actual adults, male and female to survive.”

    AMEN! I say, it’s like the CW is trying to fail. They’ve had 6 years to realize that teen love dramas with endless triangles and teenagers sleeping around fail! How can they hope to get the A18-49 ratings when their shows appeal to girls 12-17?! If they don’t get some shows that actually appeal to adults with actual storylines and not soapy non-sense, CW might as well become a kiddie cable channel like Nickelodeon

  • ChrisA

    Cancel It!

    The CW needs to cancel everything and keep TVD, Nikita, Supernatural, Ringer, and bring new interesting shows to the network. Arrow looks good. They should pick up V for a 3rd season plus it’s a Warner Bros. show which they have a share from the The CW (This might be a hit). That Carrie Diaries is not looking promising for The CW.

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