CW: Do Recent Ratings Lows Put 'The Secret Circle' In Danger Of Being Canceled?

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Ringer :cry: :cry: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.81
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 1.02
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
One Tree Hill final season 1.10
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

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After The Secret Circle hit a series low 0.5 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday, the commenter cries began "Worse than Hart Of Dixie!", "As bad as Ringer!", not to mention the retentionistas that have had their knives out for the show all season.

Does its late season ratings plunge pull it off the "likely to be renewed" list? I don't think so, at least not yet, but I'm first to admit there's no data to back me up.

It's very rare that a show that's done reasonably well (ignore the retentionistas) for 90% of the season takes a relative ratings dive at the end like that, so I don't have any data on what that might portend.

That being the case, I'm going with something like "too little, too late", figuring that while renewal decisions have not been announced, the season's ratings history on TSC had minds at the CW already substantially made up to renew the show. But I'm in uncharted waters with that leap.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Mickey 1.0

    @Sid
    A little off-topic but anyone here(besides me) excited for Felicia Day’s stint on Supernatural this week? :D

    It’s definitely getting some buzz.

    I’m curious to see how L.A. Complex will do in the ratings tonight. I think the Spring Slump is a bad time to premiere, but we’ll see. It looks interesting, I’m gonna give it a shot. (Especially since Jewel Staite is in it.)

    http://blog.zap2it.com/frominsidethebox/2012/04/the-la-complex-jewel-staite-makes-the-move-back-tv-stateside.html

    @Rachel

    Even if Pedowitz does pick up the Carrie Diaries (and Variety reporting it as a frontrunner is not the same as an official pick up) that still doesn’t mean he’s a coward. Wanting to broaden the demographic doesn’t mean you completely dump the demographic you have. He has to work with what he’s got, and what he’s got is a network that has been geared towards young women for several years. He can’t turn that around on a dime, and he’d be a fool to get rid of the audience the network does have before he has attracted a new audience. Ideally, he would keep the viewers the CW has and add to them.

    I don’t like the sound of the Carrie Diaries and would rather it not get picked up. But that doesn’t mean Pedowitz is a coward if he does. It means he’s a realist dealing with a bad situation.

  • Mickey 1.0

    @Bill
    Last season 2010-11 I predicted the CW moves 100% correctly.

    And I predicted 100% correctly in 2009-10 as well.

    I think she was referring to the comments, rather than your predictions. Also, I think it was a bit of tongue-in-cheek irony. As in she said she had an intern who laughs at the people who say they have interns.

  • HotLatino4GayMarriage

    Cancel HoD ASAP, CW! An awful show with pathetic ratings!!!!

  • Jo

    Mr. Gorman – did I bruise your ego? My sincerest apologies. Have you finalized your predictions for this coming season?

    Everyone else on here sure seems to know what is going to happen :)

  • Rachel

    @Mickey 1.0

    Again, give me a break! So what explains Deadline reporting? If I can’t trust Deadline who can I trust? There are plenty of other pilots that would appeal to the demo they are looking for. First Cut, Beauty and the Beast, Shelter, hell even Joey Dakota. The CW is simply trying to cash in on Sex and the City’s success and it may very well backfire. I’m not saying he has to completely turn things around at the drop of a dime, I’m saying he has 8 freaking pilots to choose from and this is what he wants. A shallow, superficial GG 2.0 and guess what? No one is watching that trash anymore.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I think the obvious solution is cancel Nikita, move TSC to Fridays to replace it for a shortened season…If TSC improves, they can always order more episodes.

    Also there is the question of how likely are they to kill four shows. Nikita and Ringer are definitely doomed, and HoD is on the same level as those two shows and has been for longer than TSC if I’m not mistaken. We’re sure the CW intends to kill at least two shows, and I’ve been assuming three.

    It would make no sense to keep GG and 90210 and kill TSC at this point.

  • Wright

    TSC is a great show. It gets better with every episode.

  • Jo

    Bingo Mickey 1.0

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Sid: I wasn’t aware Felicia was on Supernatural. Thanks. That makes that episode a “must keep” (although I ended up not keeping all her appearances on Eureka, mostly because I find that show too boring and needed the disk space…)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Have you finalized your predictions for this coming season?”

    Final predictions will probably be posted on May 8, although I may talk to Robert and move it up to May 2.

    The only issue is which of HoD and Nikita I predict will be canceled (or both). Ringer’s dead, and I will predict all the rest are renewed.

    Don’t tell the interns. I want them to be surprised.

  • helpful_lurker

    Hmm, people bring up “Hellcats” as evidence of a show pulling lower later ratings that didn’t make a second season cut, but if I recall correctly “Hellcats” jumped over the ratings cliff much sooner then “The Secret Circle” has. So, I sorta think those saying a decision has all ready been made (and will probably be stuck to) on “The Secret Circle” are probably correct.

    The bigger question for me is would it be a mistake to renew “The Secret Circle?” And to be honest I have to say yes because I really do suspect a second season of “The Secret Circle” will rate worse then the second season of “Nikita” has. Seriously, at the risk of sounding like one of “those” “Nikita” fans (and I don’t even watch “Nikita” – I tried several times it just wasn’t to my tastes) I almost think it would be better for the CW to give “Nikita” a third chance over giving “The Secret Circle” a second chance but that isn’t likely to happen.

    Honestly, at this point I’d say “The Secret Circle” is the CWs “Private Practice” – a show that does okay behind its mother ship but will fall off the ratings cliff when/if moved away from said mother ship.

    Mostly though I agree with a few others – now would be the perfect time for the CW to avoid a face-saving freshman renewal(s) since the new guy is new and didn’t have much (just ignore “Ringer” being his baby, please, is what he’d say) to do with the shows picked up for the current season. Still whether it deserves it or not (ratings wise) I suspect “The Secret Circle” will get a second season while “Ringer” and “Hart of Dixie” will not – I’m also thinking “Nikita”s chances depend on what plans are for “The Secret Circle.” But whatever happens with “The Secret Circle” I am certain about one thing – the CW will not leave “The Secret Circle” behind “The Vampire Diaries,” and I’m pretty sure that’ll spell DOOM for “The Secret Circle.”

  • James

    monday
    90210
    The Carrie Diaries

    tuesday
    Gossip Girl(13)Cult (13)
    The Beauty and The Beast

    Wednesday
    ANTM/Shelter
    The Secret Circle

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaires
    The Selection

    Friday
    Supernatural
    Arrow

    Sunday
    Hart of Dixie
    First Cut

    Midseason
    Nikita or Ringer

  • Mickey 1.0

    @Rachel
    There are plenty of other pilots that would appeal to the demo they are looking for. First Cut, Beauty and the Beast, Shelter, hell even Joey Dakota.

    Right. And we don’t know which of those 8 pilots he will pick yet, nor how many. Chances are it’ll be 4 or 5. Even if odds are TCD will be one of them given the buzz, that still means 3 or 4 (i.e. a significant majority) of them will be moving towards a different demographic.

    The other thing we don’t know is the quality of the pilots. He may well be leaning towards TCD because it is gelling better than other ones. That’s why they make pilots before they pick up a series, to see which ones are coming together and which aren’t.

    Also, no matter how reliable a source, they’re still reporting on a decision that hasn’t been officially made yet. As they say, there is many a slip betwixt cup and lip. I’m not saying they’re wrong, I’m saying it’s not a sure thing yet. Stuff happens, things can change.

    Chill. Let’s see which pilots he picks up first.

    @Jo
    Bingo Mickey 1.0

    ;)

  • Rachel

    @Mickey 1.0

    Right. And we don’t know which of those 8 pilots he will pick yet, nor how many. Chances are it’ll be 4 or 5. Even if odds are TCD will be one of them given the buzz, that still means 3 or 4 (i.e. a significant majority) of them will be moving towards a different demographic.

    We’ll see.

    The other thing we don’t know is the quality of the pilots. He may well be leaning towards TCD because it is gelling better than other ones. That’s why they make pilots before they pick up a series, to see which ones are coming together and which aren’t.

    Hmm, We already know First Cut had a sold pilot because of the lead actress and we also know Joey Dakota had great musical numbers but was deemed risky by the network. And crappy pilots have been ordered to series plenty of times. The CW will try to cash in on S&tC’s success. TCD is gonna be picked up no matter how good or bad the pilot is. It’s obvious. How about we stop being delusional and just acknowledge what’s been right under our noses from day one.

    Also, no matter how reliable a source, they’re still reporting on a decision that hasn’t been officially made yet. As they say, there is many a slip betwixt cup and lip. I’m not saying they’re wrong, I’m saying it’s not a sure thing yet. Stuff happens, things can change.

    Yeah right, It’s sure thing.

    Chill. Let’s see which pilots he picks up first.

    I am chill. You’re the one who got worked up because I called someone you don’t even know a coward.

    Why do people like to make excuses instead of acknowledging the truth these days?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Hmm, people bring up “Hellcats” as evidence of a show pulling lower later ratings that didn’t make a second season cut, but if I recall correctly “Hellcats” jumped over the ratings cliff much sooner then “The Secret Circle” has”

    Hellcats ratings dive began in late February, and I initially cautioned against overreaction.

    Then Hellcats went on a long hiatus, and when it returned its ratings continued to dive and I pushed it to likely canceled on April 26.

  • Michael

    The funny thing about the CW is, you would think their choices of renewal/cancellation would be predicable, but it really isn’t. Just look at this chart, as an example. There’s absolutely no chance of renewal for Ringer, but even Bill is giving it 2 stars, instead of 1.

  • Kate

    Oh, good, more “sources” because we haven’t had enough of those. I find it really hard to believe that an intern knows the ins and outs of what’s going to happen as far as renewals and cancellations go.

    TSC’s rating story is similar to Hellcats. I was bored and went back to read the renewal/cancel posts from that season and they follow the same kind of path. But like a lot of you have said, I think TSC is crashing and burning later than Hellcats did and plus, there are other freshman shows who appear to be doing just as bad, if not worse, than it is. I agree that Pedowitz could cancel all 3 and not look too terrible, considering these were Dawn’s choices and not his as far as selecting pilots. So no, I don’t think TSC will be canceled, but I also think it won’t receive a full season pick up like other shows may (TVD, SPN, 90210).

    I knew GG would drop back to .5 again, surprised about HOD though. I heard it was a pretty awful episode so that could be a problem for next week’s ratings as well. I think 90210 will come back with a .6 but return to the normal .7-.9 after that. I’m not sure why people think LA Complex is going to be some hit – it wasn’t in Canada. People have been able to check this out for months if they’ve wanted to. I can’t see it getting better than a .4 but I could be wrong.

    Does anyone else think we won’t be getting early renewals this year?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The funny thing about the CW is, you would think their choices of renewal/cancellation would be predicable, but it really isn’t. Just look at this chart, as an example. There’s absolutely no chance of renewal for Ringer, but even Bill is giving it 2 stars, instead of 1.”

    Ultimately they are quite predictable, as the past two years have shown, but the limited number of shows on the CW, plus the fact that all their ratings are grouped quite closely together (except TVD) means that the numbers don’t get spread out to the extent that makes me certain enough until the end of the season to go with “certain to be canceled”.

  • hammard

    I have a feeling that the renewal won’t matter in the longer run for most of these shows as I think they’ll almost all go by the end of next year even if they get renewed.

    Ringer & Hart of Dixie are low enough already and won’t increase. Secret Circle won’t remain in this slot next year (they’ll want to launch a freshman drama) and the ratings will only get lower without the perfectly matched lead-in.

    If Gossip Girl gets renewed it’ll only be for a final (half?)season and Supernatural will probably announce that next year will be a final season event.

    90210 will stay until Paramount can get a bigger hit on the CW (as soon as they do I think they’ll cancel before it gets too expensive) and their would have to be real vampires attacking Warner Bros. for them to get rid of VD.

    The only show it would really make a difference for (IMHO) would be Nikita as that would probably get a 4th Season for syndication.

  • Lane

    I think CW should cancel all the shows that get a .5 or below and just look at ABCfamily for what they want to do if they still want to use the teen girl demographic

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