CW: Do Recent Ratings Lows Put 'The Secret Circle' In Danger Of Being Canceled?

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Ringer :cry: :cry: 0.68
Nikita (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Gossip Girl :) :) :) :) 0.81
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.82
90210 :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Secret Circle :) :) :) :) 1.02
Supernatural (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
One Tree Hill final season 1.10
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

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After The Secret Circle hit a series low 0.5 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday, the commenter cries began "Worse than Hart Of Dixie!", "As bad as Ringer!", not to mention the retentionistas that have had their knives out for the show all season.

Does its late season ratings plunge pull it off the "likely to be renewed" list? I don't think so, at least not yet, but I'm first to admit there's no data to back me up.

It's very rare that a show that's done reasonably well (ignore the retentionistas) for 90% of the season takes a relative ratings dive at the end like that, so I don't have any data on what that might portend.

That being the case, I'm going with something like "too little, too late", figuring that while renewal decisions have not been announced, the season's ratings history on TSC had minds at the CW already substantially made up to renew the show. But I'm in uncharted waters with that leap.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • rehabber

    I really wanted to like the show and I am still watching, but just don’t have any feeling for any of the character, so nothing invested in their well being. Cancel or not, does not matter to me. Supernatural and The Vampire Diaries have characters that I care about, so I worry about them, cry with or for them and laugh in the good times. TSC not at all.

  • TomKH

    The CW need to preform a purge and get rid of everything other than Supernatural, TVD and Top Model. Pick up all pilots and buy some British shows (why no broadcast network is doing it?) and get SamckDown back.

  • Dan

    @Bill-I still don’t understand why you have Ringer at two smileys instead of one. Granted I do not want the show to be canceled, but you said earlier it was dead. You also said that you were waiting until later to make all of your predictions, but I guess what I don’t understand is why is Ringer still at two smileys when you are claiming it’s dead? I think you’re trying to cover your butt in case a miracle occurs and it is renewed-that way, you can say you didn’t predict certain cancellation haha.

    I agree with @rehabber-I don’t care about anyone on TSC! They are all so one dimensional and cardboard-like. Hell, half the reason I watch it now is because I think the guy who plays Jake is cute lol. With every other show I watch on The CW (The Vampire Diaries, Ringer, Supernatural, 90210, Hart of Dixie, and Gossip Girl) I actually care about the characters and am invested in them-TSC not so much haha. Would not be sad to see this go.

  • Mickey 1.0

    @Rachel
    We’ll see.

    That’s precisely my point. We’ll see. We don’t know yet, so instead of jumping to conclusions, let’s wait and see.

    Give me a fcking break. Deadline and Variety have both reported that Arrow and The Carrie Diaries are frontrunners to be picked up. They didn’t create all the buzz for those shows for no reason.

    Yeah right, it’s sure thing.

    You yourself cite your sources as saying they are “frontrunners.” They’re not reporting that they won the race. Things can change between now and the finish line.

    I am chill. You’re the one who got worked up because I called someone you don’t even know a coward.

    I didn’t get worked up. I merely pointed out, as others did, that you are passing judgement based on things that haven’t happened yet. And btw, you’re the one who resorted to swearing and boldface. In any case, by “Chill, let’s see what pilots he picks up first” I merely meant, let’s give it some time instead of being hasty.

    Why do people like to make excuses instead of acknowledging the truth these days?

    You’re confusing the truth with your opinion.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill-I still don’t understand why you have Ringer at two smileys instead of one. “

    Hair splitting.

  • Rachel

    You’re confusing the truth with your opinion.

    No. I’m being realistic. You’re being delusional if you seriously think TCD won’t be picked up. Despite how we may feel about it it’s gonna happen. Stop with this optimistic bullcrap. Come next month TCD and Arrow will be on the schedule along with one or two other pilots no one gives a crap about.

  • Rachel

    @Mickey 1.0
    And everyone on this site who bothers to make a fake a schedule always includes TCD, Arrow and The Selection. Everyone knows these are the pilots that will most likely make it on the network yet you wanna call me out and start an argument over common knowledge? You’re being ridiculous.

  • BJH

    No, because ratings were down across the board for CW this week. Even The Vampire Diaries hit an all-time low this week.

  • Jane

    Top Model is performing just as badly as the rest of them.

  • Anthony M

    LOCK….UNLOCK

    The crazy way off base Nielsen ratings better leave my little Brit Robertson fix alone. That tiny blonde with the great jugs is must watch for me. Also Phoebe Tonkin..yummy. Actually all 4 girls are hot..

  • joethehobo

    Ringer is the only show on The CW I have ever been interested in, and I think it’s the best new show of the season. I will really miss it if it gets canceled. Other than the ‘rape’ and trial twists taken almost verbatim from Wild Things, I think it was one of the most inventive and intelligent dramas I have ever seen.

  • Freyja

    Personally think all the freshman shows should go, especially when a show on Friday is doing better with no promotion at all I say we have a major problem.

    Cancel, Ringer, HOD and TSC start over with their new crop at this rate GG doesn’t even deserve 13 episodes but will probably get it anyhow. A 0.5 doesn’t matter when the ratings are under a million lol

    They should toss GG on Friday and ANTM lol and Move SPN to another night but it’s not gonna happen.

    CW needs to pick up, Arrow, The Selecion, and First Cut (Justin Hartley, need him back on my TV) Have the Cult for Midseason since it’s supposed to be 13 episodes anyhow, let it share a spot with GG..

    The rest of the pilots need to go away TCD, B&TB, and Shelter all sound like crap and should be passed on.

    Come on CW get with the renewals already!

  • Gus

    At the risk of bringing in four new shows ,at least, one would gather that The Secret Circle will be brought back. I think I understand ,perhaps, what Mr. Gorman feels about the lack of confidence in saying that The Secret Circle is a sure thing for renewal: First last weeks drop off in ratings ,second the lack of any kind of buzz or interest for the show generally. These two factors make it easy to look at The Secret Circle a new show, as an easy pick for cancellation. It isn’t The Vampire Diaries. It isn’t Supernatural. But to cancel TSC for what? Saving ratings turkeys like Ringer, Hart Of Dixie, and Nikita? Bringing any or all of these shows back? Oh come on!People look at the current renew/cancel index once again and see that TSC is just behind TVD,the now gone One Tree Hill ,and Supernatural and ahead of 90210. It is a show in need of some retooling without question, but that being said The Secret Circle will be brought back by the CW for the 2012-2013 tv season.

  • Freyja

    @Rachel

    Actually Deadline also said a lot could change between now and pickups, and to take everything listed there with a grain of salt. Because a lot of that information being passed to Deadline is from producers and insiders cheering for their favorite projects…

    However; they were pretty dead on last year, until Ringer came into the mix… But that doesn’t mean TCD will get picked up, anything can happen, the pilot could turn out like crap, we just don’t know.

    Joey Dakota has no chance in hell and neither does Shelter or B&TB ;)

    No need for you to get hostile and calling Mark a coward for something he hasn’t done yet is out of line and uncalled for..

    What I am saying is don’t trust everything you read on the internet, even when places like Deadline already said take what you read here with a grain of salt ;)

  • Tess

    I think ringer is in with a chance. I will be surprised if its not picked up or sold to another network where it could do better. Its an intelligent show and a guilty pleasure although i agree if you havent watched from the start, it would be hard to pick up mid season. Have any of you checked out eonlines save one show poll? Ringers doing really well. to be a huge fan of gossip girl, now i watch out of habit, reunite chair and wrap it up! Wrap up 90210 too, its immature, along with the secret circle although i do like the actress who plays Faye, the only reason I watch. ironically with last weeks low ratings i thought its episode was one of the best of the season. Arrow and Cult sound good, as does The selection. Im hoping but not expecting for Shelter to be picked up as I really miss One Tree Hill which was such a great show. Ill give all the new pilots a try, im hoping for at least four. Oh and my predictions, nikita, and hart of dixie cancelled, maybe with the secret circle. 90210 and gossip girl renewed for final seasons. Carried diaries most likely picked up along with arrow, selection and wild card fourth show maybe cult if enough spaces. First time poster long time lurker! I please be gentle.

  • Kate

    I’m kind of surprised by the total lack of buzz TSC and its cast has received. I know buzz isn’t everything, but it certainly doesn’t hurt (look at GG). I don’t think I’ve ever seen any of the cast members in tabloids/magazines, at least not after the initial premiere in September. I thought for sure they’d have another TVD on their hands, but no one seems to really care about them.

  • Mary

    I cannot believe Ringer is going to be cancelled. It’s an amazing show, very interesting! Maybe Sarah Michelle Gellar over-acts but that’s fine for mee… PLEASE RENEW RINGER!!
    lol

  • James

    @Freyja
    I wouldn’t be surprised if at least one of Shelter, TB&TB, or Joey Dakota be picked up. The CW is hurting for money and Shelter is the cheapest pilot, the network likes the music in Joey Dakota, and TB&TB is gaining momentum(slowly), and I think CW wants a more procedural type show.

    I am hoping Shelter, The Selection, Arrow, and Cult get picked up to series. Joey Dakota sounds musical ringer, much too confusing.
    First Cut is the next Hart of Dixie :/
    The carrie diaires is too teen girly.
    The Beauty and The Beast I just dont care about.

    PLEASE START RENEWING CW!!!!!

  • Peter Mazz

    RENEWED (Stronger to weaker)
    The Vampire Diaries (For seasons 4 & 5)
    Supernatural (Final Season)
    The Secret Circle
    90210
    Gossip Girl (Final Season)
    America’s Next Top Model (Final Cycle)

    CANCELLED (Stronger to weaker)
    Hart of Dixie
    Nikita
    Ringer
    Remodeled
    H8R

  • Sid

    Here’s how I see it:

    Most Likely will happen:
    RINGER, Dixie and NIKITA cancelled with TSC renewed destined for Friday where it will do worse than NIKITA :D

    Could Happen:
    RINGER and TSC cancelled with HoD and NIKITA renewed for 13 episodes each.

    Could happen but is very unlikely:
    CW cancels all three failing freshman’s and renews NIKITA for 13 episodes.

    Either way, it’s definitely between NIKITA and TSC because they both once had the post VD slot and CW will need a replacement if they decide to cancel NIKITA.

    I don’t think CW could renew both TSC and HoD like someone suggested because they’e both pretty anemic for their freshman seasons. They’d be better off only give only one the “freshman pity renewal” and try their luck with new shows.

    I still stand by my first choice BUT with renewals taking forever and only TVD, 9O21O and SPN guaranteed full seasons; I can’t tell what CW will do…

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