FOX: If 'Fringe' Is Renewed Here Are 7 Reasons That Had Nothing To Do With It

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) :| :| :| 0.50
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In canceled 0.66
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.67
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
The Finder (part F) :oops: 0.86
Raising Hope renewed 0.87
Bob's Burgers :| :| :| 0.88
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz* :cry: :cry: 0.93
American Dad renewed 0.97
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
Bones renewed 1.05
House final season 1.10
The Simpsons renewed 1.23
Touch :) :) :) :) 1.27
New Girl renewed 1.35
Glee renewed 1.37
Family Guy renewed 1.39

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4/26 Update: Fringe renewed for a final 13 episode season.
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My partner in crime disagrees, but, as I have all season, I still have Fringe as a "toss up" for cancellation or renewal because of the ways syndication, or even *potential* syndication can effect the "normal" decision making process.

However, if Fringe is renewed, I'm sure fans will trumpet a variety of reasons why it happened, and FOX's formal and informal PR apparatus will do its best to reinforce some of those reasons, here are some reasons that will have had nothing to do with it:

  • Fox executives love the show! They love all their shows, even the ones they cancel.
  • Fox wants scripted shows on Friday! Right up until they announce a schedule with no scripted shows on Friday. Fox wants to make money on Friday's, they'll do that the best way they can at the time. The "We want scripted shows on Friday" is convenient Hollywood-friendly PR while they still *have* scripted shows on Friday.
  • Fox can't get any better ratings on Fridays! Tell that to Gordon Ramsay.
  • Fringe fans make people listen. They make people take notice. Have loud voices and are heard  That's just producer cheerleading. The only things that Fox execs "listen" to from the fans are the ratings.
  • The critics love Fringe! Lone Star.
  • It has great increases in DVR viewing! Big increases from a tiny base still equal tiny totals, compared to other Fox shows.
  • Anna Torv is tangentially related to Rupert Murdoch! Rupert Murdoch would cancel a show starring his mother if the numbers didn't add up.

What will be the real reason Fringe gets renewed if it happens? As I noted two weeks ago:

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Bonus update: Photo replaced with a screen cap from a syndicated airing of 'Til Death. Yes, doubters, if a ratings loser like 'Til Death can be syndicated, so can Fringe!
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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Dennis

    Well we will find out this week anyway according to Joel

    I predict…..RENEWED :)

  • JJJ

    As I posted elsewhere, Joel Wyman posted yesterday Fringe has a 9.99 chance out of 10 to being renewed this week. It’s being renewed. Wyman answered a week ago giving the answer it will be a 13 week pick-up. It’ll be a vlast season–this is the EXACT info that UK website had a couple of weeks ago.

    And this is from someone who is usually annoyed by the bragging Fringe fans. It doesn’t deserve a final season BUT Fox has been very generous AND WB gave it away cheap.

  • JJJ

    *a last season*

  • Jonathas

    About ‘Fringe’, yes I agree about all 5 reasons that will have had nothing to do with the renewal under Fox Perspective, but why would Warner Brothers goes low enough on its license fee? is that because they love the show? the critics? because frige has the loudest fans?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “but why would Warner Brothers goes low enough on its license fee? “

    Because they think whatever they lose in producing those episodes will be made back in syndication revenue from them.

  • Erin

    Under every other circumstance, I would agree with you that what Joel tweeted about the fans being heard is nonsense. However, FOX has actively picked up and been supporting the fan-based Twitter campaign over the last few weeks, because it has actually been moderately successful (every week, the fan-chosen hashtag has trended on Twitter for several hours during the episode). Do I think Twitter trending has anything to do with a renewal? Of course not. Are FOX’s actions as a network regarding this campaign something new and unprecedented? As far as I’m aware, yes.

  • The Original J

    “Fox executives love the show! They love all their shows, even the ones they cancel.”

    No they don’t. It’s literally impossible to have the exact same amount of fondness for every single show on a network you run.

    If “Fringe” gets renewed, I agree that the license fee will be a huge reason why. But you can’t discount the human element in the decision-making process. Kevin Reilly, who championed “Friday Night Lights” while at NBC, found a way to keep it on the air even when others at NBC were just looking at the numbers and saying, “we could make more money going in a different direction.” He got creative then, and he could get creative now (from a financial standpoint) because he’s also made repeated remarks about how much he loves “Fringe.”

  • C

    I think if it get’s renewed, it’s because Fox is starting to value on-demand viewing.

  • C

    I’m shocked you haven’t said that it’s because the main star is related to rupert murdoch :p

  • JJJ

    I don’t think fan campaigning had any effect–a cheap price, rumored budget cuts, Fox over generosity and a little more extra episodes for possible syndication.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I’m shocked you haven’t said that it’s because the main star is related to rupert murdoch”

    Damn! Forgot!

    Very difficult keeping all the different non-reasons in my head!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I think if it get’s renewed, it’s because Fox is starting to value on-demand viewing.”

    That non-reason is too obscure for me to have considered it.

  • Ryno

    Don’t you think potential DVD sales are a reason to renew as well?

  • Joseph

    My prediction:

    “Fringe” will be renewed, but will not continue on Friday nights.

    Expect it to be moved to a mid-week slot, with Fox using Fridays for reality this Fall (“Kitchen Nightmares” and a shortened final season of “Cops”).

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Don’t you think potential DVD sales are a reason to renew as well?”

    They certainly could play into the WB decision to cut their license fees, but I didn’t bother to include all the benefits to the WB were Fringe to be renewed, since the reasons (and non-reasons) are listed from Fox’s decision making perspective.

  • were123

    Fringe will be renewed, I trust that :D

  • JJJ

    Mark my words–Fringe is renewed for a final 13 episode run. This has been all over the place and the Producer is so publicly SUPER confident…it’s happening. Wouldn’t be suprised if we hear tonight.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    ““Fringe” will be renewed, but will not continue on Friday nights.”

    The first would not surprise me. The second is just silly.

    “Expect it to be moved to a mid-week slot, with Fox using Fridays for reality this Fall (“Kitchen Nightmares” and a shortened final season of “Cops”).”

    What “mid-week” slot do you imagine exists on Fox’s schedule for Fringe?

    Or were you talking about a mid-week slot in the *alternate* universe?

  • The Mad Hatter

    Cue haters proclaiming Fringe’s lack of quality and imminent cancellation
    Cue delusional fans harking on about the value of time-shifted viewing and the need for proper storyline closure as legitimate grounds for renewal

    If the word “Cancellation” had somehow made it into the title as well methinks this article would have been perfect!

    I will just pray to the licensing fee gods on behalf of Fringe in the meantime haha

  • Melanie

    Do you think Warners likes the panache of having shows hit 100 episodes even though 88 is enough to strip in syndicatation?

    Naaaw probably not – or Chuck would’ve had a back 9 and ended at 100 even.

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