FOX: If 'Fringe' Is Renewed Here Are 7 Reasons That Had Nothing To Do With It

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 24th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) :| :| :| 0.50
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In canceled 0.66
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.67
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
The Finder (part F) :oops: 0.86
Raising Hope renewed 0.87
Bob's Burgers :| :| :| 0.88
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz* :cry: :cry: 0.93
American Dad renewed 0.97
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
Bones renewed 1.05
House final season 1.10
The Simpsons renewed 1.23
Touch :) :) :) :) 1.27
New Girl renewed 1.35
Glee renewed 1.37
Family Guy renewed 1.39

-
4/26 Update: Fringe renewed for a final 13 episode season.
-
My partner in crime disagrees, but, as I have all season, I still have Fringe as a "toss up" for cancellation or renewal because of the ways syndication, or even *potential* syndication can effect the "normal" decision making process.

However, if Fringe is renewed, I'm sure fans will trumpet a variety of reasons why it happened, and FOX's formal and informal PR apparatus will do its best to reinforce some of those reasons, here are some reasons that will have had nothing to do with it:

  • Fox executives love the show! They love all their shows, even the ones they cancel.
  • Fox wants scripted shows on Friday! Right up until they announce a schedule with no scripted shows on Friday. Fox wants to make money on Friday's, they'll do that the best way they can at the time. The "We want scripted shows on Friday" is convenient Hollywood-friendly PR while they still *have* scripted shows on Friday.
  • Fox can't get any better ratings on Fridays! Tell that to Gordon Ramsay.
  • Fringe fans make people listen. They make people take notice. Have loud voices and are heard  That's just producer cheerleading. The only things that Fox execs "listen" to from the fans are the ratings.
  • The critics love Fringe! Lone Star.
  • It has great increases in DVR viewing! Big increases from a tiny base still equal tiny totals, compared to other Fox shows.
  • Anna Torv is tangentially related to Rupert Murdoch! Rupert Murdoch would cancel a show starring his mother if the numbers didn't add up.

What will be the real reason Fringe gets renewed if it happens? As I noted two weeks ago:

-
Bonus update: Photo replaced with a screen cap from a syndicated airing of 'Til Death. Yes, doubters, if a ratings loser like 'Til Death can be syndicated, so can Fringe!
-
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Added two more non-reasons!

  • Carmen

    Perhaps Fringe will get a 2nd reprieve. It doesn’t matter much to me. I don’t watch it now and won’t in the future.

    But I get kind of amused at the arguments / reasons why it will renewed.

    1) It will be given away for (next to) free by WB.
    Ok, that can to Fox’s favor with regard to license fees, but the downside is
    that they will be unable to command anything above minimum advertising rates per 30 second commecial.
    It may be be “profitable” in syndication, but only mimimally profitable.

    Where is the long term . .. or even short to mid term. . .benefit to the network (Fox)? They could be experiencing severe lost opportunity costs by renewing a show that gets low 1.xx ratings. Regardless of how cheap they get it.

    2) For the upteenth dozen time, the question has to be asked.

    “What good are 88 episodes (or more) for syndication, if the show has no following beyond a very small, rock solid fan base.

    In short, why do people seem to think that a show with very low ratings that absolutley staggers. ..repeat staggers. . . to 88 episodes will suddenly have a newly found and widespread audience and become a hit in syndication?

    The successful syndication shows are the ones who are going strong in live episodes when they begin their (syndication) runs.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Carmen, it’s all relative.

    “Where is the long term . .. or even short to mid term. . .benefit to the network (Fox)?”

    Short term benefit to Fox is a potentially super cheap show for Friday night. As you noted, there is an opportunity cost associated with Fringe’s terrible ratings, and that’s clearly on Fox’s mind.

    ““What good are 88 episodes (or more) for syndication, if the show has no following beyond a very small, rock solid fan base.”

    There is money in syndication for almost any show. And more episodes will probably mean more money. It’s all relative.

  • Lu

    “Rupert Murdoch would cancel a show starring his mother if the numbers didn’t add up”

    LOL! Sad but true I guess.

  • Luan

    “Rupert Murdoch would cancel a show starring his mother if the numbers didn’t add up.” – the best line I’ve read lately :)

  • Donna

    Nevertheless, TVBTN’s credibility took an ouchy hit when the cancellation they so confidently predicted for the show last year failed to materialize.

    It showed their formula needs tweaking, but they just don’t know HOW, so periodically we will get flaily articles like this one.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Nevertheless, TVBTN’s credibility took an ouchy hit when the cancellation they so confidently predicted for the show last year failed to materialize.

    It showed their formula needs tweaking, but they just don’t know HOW, so periodically we will get flaily articles like this one.”

    Formula has been tweaked, Fringe no lower than a “toss up” this season because of tweaking. As noted, pre tweak, it would have been likely canceled.

    You get articles like this because tweaking crazy fans over their nonsense never gets old!

  • H5O Fan

    OMG LOL that was to funny…..this show and Chuck, no reason to be renewed, but it keeps happening. The ratings show no, no, no, but the show is like a cat with nine lives. For me, renewed or cancelled would not surprise me.

  • Naemeth

    To “The critics love Fringe”, you could have also put Awake in there (and to be honest, any future Kyle Killen broadcast network show)

  • Naemeth

    @H50

    By the way, Chuck practically always stayed in about 80-90% of NBC’s average, by the end of the 4th season, only 10 episodes were needed for a 5th, so NBC ordered 13 more.

  • Naemeth

    *Sorry, H5O Fan.

  • psychic

    If Fringe gets renewed and the final season doesn’t suck, I will be satiated no matter what.

  • chrisss

    @ Naemeth

    Speaking of Kyle Killen, he really should go to cable with his next show

  • MattG

    @Joseph: The only other timeslot I see for Fringe is Saturday. But to renew a show only to move it to the perhaps crappiest timeslot? I don’t know :-/. Doesn’t make much sense to me. And moving Fring to a “midweek” timeslot sounds like perfect suicide…

  • josh

    It will be sad to see Fringe gothis season or next season. I enjoy this show in so many ways and for so many reasons. I can’t believe more people don’t watch this show. I have noticed that alot of tv shows that require acting have lost viewers and have slipped in the ratings.its sad that reality television has taken the place of talented acting. Red Vines!!!!!!

  • Avery

    2012-13 Schedule
    Monday
    8:00 – Bones
    9:00 – Touch

    Tuesday
    8:00 – Raising Hope
    8:30 – Prodigy Bully
    9:00 – New Girl
    9:30 – Let It Go

    Wednesday
    8:00 – The X-Factor/American Idol

    Thursday
    8:00 – The X-Factor/American Idol
    9:00 – Glee

    Friday
    8:00 – Living Loaded
    8:30 – My Little Brother
    9:00 – Hell’s Kitchen

    Saturday
    8:00 – FOX Sports

  • Concerned Citizen

    Monday
    8:00 – Glee
    9:00 – Touch

    Tuesday
    8:00 – Raising Hope
    8:30 – Like Father
    9:00 – New Girl
    9:30 – Mindy Kaling sitcom

    Wednesday
    8:00 – The X Factor/American Idol
    9:30 – Rebounding/American Idol

    Thursday
    8:00 – The X Factor/American Idol
    9:00 – Mastermind/The Asset

    Friday
    8:00 – reality
    9:00 – Bones

  • tvfreak

    @chrisss: Or just get a cable network to take on Awake. It needs the save desperately.

    @Bill: Your seventh non-reason just made my day. :)

    Game time! With some changes: Votes are now to be done in +3, +2, -2, and -3 until only three shows remain, when all votes will be +3 and -3 only. Also, if anyone new to the site or the game expresses interest in playing, they will first have to be vetted by me, as they must swear on their own graves not to cheat by shape-shifting multiple votes, or any other method (remember to wait 24 hours between votes), and pass a quick trivia test based on the remaining shows in the game. Trivia questions will be asked only on request.

    And yes, I am serious about the “swear on their own graves” part. Really.

    FRINGE – 65
    RAISING HOPE – 24
    ALCATRAZ – 23
    NEW GIRL – 8
    TOUCH – 38

  • tomko44

    @MattG… The days of scripted TV on a Saturday night is over. Nothing but sports and repeats (and crappy movies on SyFy).

  • Cory

    I will throw a party if Fringe gets canceled. It’s WAY overdue to be canceled and the day it’s canceled won’t be soon enough. The fans of the show (all 10 of them) are delusional to think it’s good enough to be on the air. The ratings don’t lie and that show has horrible ratings. Terra Nova was a better show than Fringe. Heck, season 2 of Breaking In is better than Fringe.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures