Bubble Watch Special: "Leave Bill Alone & Watch Robert Eat His 'Fringe' Crow" Edition

Categories: Broadcast TV,Bubble Watch

Written By

April 26th, 2012

I could say “See, Fringe did get canceled (after 13 more episodes)!”  While that’s technically true, it’s outside of the spirit of Bubble Watch (and Renew/Cancel Index) predictions which forecast whether shows will be renewed for the following season.

I could also say had I seen @MaskedScheduler’s tweet earlier this month predicting better than a 50-50 chance, I would’ve at least upgraded Fringe to the Bubble.  That too is true, and since Bill is always needling me that you need to call bank shots in advance, I did at least get it on the record a couple of days in advance of the renewal announcement!

But the fact is I was wrong.  All season long.  I don’t view it as the biggest mistake I’ve ever made – Dollhouse’s season two renewal still stands as the worst mistake because I predicted certain cancellation for Dollhouse, and with Fringe only likely cancellation.

Where I had Fringe as a likely cancellation practically the whole season, Bill had Fringe on the bubble (or as a toss-up in Renew/Cancel Index parlance)  all season long and so no matter the outcome, he could rightfully claim “No big surprise” since when you say “it could go either way” whichever way it goes can’t be surprising.

Anyway, please refrain from bashing Bill for my prediction!  Bash me for the prediction all you want though. I was wrong and I will eat my crow with only a little salt and maybe a dash of mustard to mask the gamey taste. It’s kind of funny to see people equate a prediction with a rooting interest, though that shouldn't surprise me at this point. Millions more people saw Barry Melrose predict the Washington Capitals would lose game 7 to the Boston Bruins last night than saw me predict Fringe would be canceled, and I’m sure he had way, way more harsh tweets from Capitals fans than “Haha, suck it @TVbytheNumbers!”

He wasn’t rooting against the Capitals though, he was just making a prediction.  Similarly, I wasn’t rooting for Fringe to be canceled, just making the incorrect prediction that it would be. But I was wrong and if you can’t wait until next week when I’ll retake the @TVbytheNumbers reins, you can go ahead and send your “ahahhaha suck it” to @Seidman (or post below in the comments.)

Trust me, I wasn’t rooting for Fringe to be canceled. And not just because I’ve watched every episode, but because as a web publisher, it’s better for us if it’s renewed.  Though it would’ve been a little better still for us if it had been renewed without announcing it as a final season i.e., there wasn’t nearly the interest in Chuck ratings in its final season as in previous seasons.

If  you want to harass Bill for constantly antagonizing crazy fans, that’s fair game. But spare him the grief over incorrectly predicting Fringe would be canceled at the end of this season.  That’s all on me.

The regular weekly Bubble Watch will be posted sometime Sunday morning (Pacific Time.)

  • Bright

    I don’t think you have to apologize, you write what you think it might happen. Everyone has an opinion. Anyway, I’m glad for all the fans it got renewed

  • Alex

    By all conventional logic, it probably should have been canceled. I was doubtful for awhile, but then Fox canceled Terra Nova, those involved with House decided to end it, and then there slowly came to be talk about reducing the licensing fee and getting it to syndication level.
    Somehow, the unlikely happened, and it’s getting a final season, ending on 100 episodes, and wrapping everything up. Last year’s renewal was an unexpected gift, and this is barely short of a miracle. As a fan, I couldn’t be happier.

  • Tom

    Eh, I wouldn’t eat too much crow here either.

    It’s one of the the worst rated shows* EVER to be renewed. By any reading of the numbers, that will suggest cancellation.

    Yes, the syndication numbers might have suggested otherwise, but we don’t have access to those numbers. We can hardly make accurate predictions based on numbers we don’t know!

    Sigh, this is interrupting the funniest comedy on TV tonight. I am of course talking about Kiper and Gruden’s commentary on the draft.

    *On the big 4.

  • Akihironihongo

    Since you kind of asked for it: Ahahahahaha suck it, Robert!

  • Alex Roggio

    I don’t get why you’re apologizing. The difference between Certain and Likely should allow you to be right in moments like this. You official stance was that Fringe was on the verge of cancellation, but could still possibly be renewed. And you were right. Nothing changes the fact that Fringe was on the verge of cancellation.

    You didn’t fail at predicting the show’s fate, because after all, you didn’t even predict anything. “Likely cancellation” gives you as much leeway to be right no matter what as the Bubble.

    The only real predictions are the ones that are Certain Cancellations and Renewals. And most of them are so obvious, that it’s impossible to feel proud for getting those correct anyway.

    Regardless, you weren’t wrong about Fringe. Likely Cancellation was the appropriate spot for it utilizing your format.

  • LOL!

    Your site sucks. Long live Fringe!

  • Bunny

    There’s no need for an apology!!

    I wonder if Cougar Town’s renewal is still a possibility tho…

    In house production ..29 eps to go till syndication..just sayin…

  • Bunny


    If they’re site sucks why are you here?

  • AC Mallet

    What GREAT news! I am thrilled beyond words.

  • Ali

    correct me if im wrong but you guys predict renewals here based on ratings. anyone who has been following fringe ratings would most likely put it in the exact same position as you (me included). the only people who keep saying otherwise are extreme fan-idiots who refuse to do anything but stay on cloud 9. im no fringe hater, in fact fringe is one of my favorite shows on tv (guilty of owning dvds and everything) but im not dumb, and i think any realistic person knew that based solely on ratings as you have been doing, fringe was likely to be cancelled.
    lastly, i’d like to get my little fan-girl cry in here! GO FRINGE! ;)

  • TV Gord

    I’m eating crow, too, but I’ve never been so happy to do it…AND I’M A VEGAN!!!

  • Craig

    Pretty sure you also predicted for much of its first season that the Middle was likely to be axed as well. Would not be so bad but you come across as such a smart arse know it all that it makes your mistakes even funnier

  • Polly

    Robert, no mea culpa necessary.

    I’m a fan and I thought it was a goner for sure. A thirteen episode pick up is a gift that I’ll take, but one that was not entirely predictable.

  • Spudda

    To be honest, there was no certainty that Fringe would get the Chuck treatment. But WB must have weighed current losses against future syndication value and the numbers came out in their favor.

    Even as a fringe fan I anticipated it was likely cancelled because There is many things Fox Might be able to put in its place that would be cheaper for them and get more advertising revenue (Another Gordon Ramsay show perhaps)

    But I am pleased that syndication dollars wins out for a good show to finish properly (unless they deliver a screwed up finale like Chuck did)

  • SteveStrifeX


    Glad you were able to name two shows they were wrong about (Fringe, The Middle). I’ll even throw in Dollhouse as well. Three shows they’ve been wrong about.

    So the score for this site is, what, 163 correct vs 3 incorrect?

  • TV Gord

    Robert, this is my final word on the subject:

    We can always try to predict what’s going to happen with renewals and cancellations, but no one can possibly know for sure. Only the “suits” at the networks know what goes into their decisions. Anyone who says they can predict with certainty is a fool. And the guys who runs this site are–in my opinion–no fools.

    As for the sanctimonious know-it-alls who like to rub people’s noses in every mistaken prediction, I’d like to see YOUR pass/fail record. I’m guessing y’all would be buying crow by the ton.

  • JJJ

    No Robert, we just can goof on Bill for playing it on both sides!

  • were123

    I also think you don’t have to apologize, because you admitted that another season was a ‘might’. All season long I told you that you should have Fringe in the bubble, but you didn’t listen, that’s the only thing I’ve ever complained, but you had your right for your prediction, and rating wise it was a safe bet, but here on Fringe rating don’t play that way.
    Those who really bother me are haters rooting for the show to fail, but I know you never done so. The only thing I could say is “I told you so”, but it’s meaningless, because you admitted you were wrong and that needs balls, something haters like rob or users like RSH never understood, they were so full of themselves, so sure Fringe was doomed that it made me mad! Those users are the ones who have to apologize to the great Fringe fandom, certainly not you Robert.

  • Teag

    Considering that Bill was being a dick about Fringe, we’re allowed to rip on him a bit.

  • HotLatino4GayMarriage

    Well, you gave us permission! SUCK IT ROBERT!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA

    P.S. I still love TVBTN

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