What Will Be The Renew / Cancel Index's Biggest Prediction Goof This Season? (Poll)

Categories: 1-Featured,Broadcast TV

Written By

April 26th, 2012

Every season I make my predictions, and every season there's at least one prediction (sometimes more!) that turns out to be a big goof.

Last year's biggest surprises were probably Chuck & Fringe which were predicted "likely canceled" when they were both eventually renewed. There were no shows last season that were predicted "certain to be canceled" that were renewed. The biggest surprise of all was probably the Dollhouse renewal in spring 2009. I think there's still egg somewhere on my face over that.

What's your guess on the biggest prediction goof this season?

The poll below contains all the shows that my Renew/Cancel Index predicts are either "certain to be canceled" or "likely to be canceled". Instead of listing all the shows predicted as "certain" or "likely to be renewed" I created a single item for all of them (and that's a long shot pick, I've never had a "certain" to be renewed show canceled, and I think 24 was the only "likely" show, but there may have been a couple of others).

My opinion is that being wrong on a "likely" isn't nearly the goof as being wrong on a "certain", and that my "toss up" prediction is a "no guts, no glory, no shame" option. but I'm sure commenters may disagree. Feel free to elaborate in the comments.

Note that Robert's Bubble Watch predictions are similar, but not exactly the same. Let's keep this guessing to just *my* predictions. Robert can do his own post later if he wishes.

  • The End


    Not entirely, predictions are just that, predictions. Granted Bill and Robert are mostly right in what they predict, but as admitted they do make the occasional goof with a few shows.

    I think Missing(Not a fan personally) will come back, it skews old but gets over 7 million viewers, near 8.

    NYC mostly as thats another show in Missings situation, premieres on a late night slot, could be renewed if CBS are happy with those numbers, and to be honest they arent that dreadful(Besides it skewing really old).

    And Alcatraz, for obvious reasons :)

  • Celoriu

    I’m not as high on Whitney’s chances for renewal as you guys are.

  • SmG

    I voted for Awake as I don’t want it to end :)

  • Steve

    Gee, I guess Harry’s Law even has fans on this site :)

  • The End


    It does indeed. Doesn’t help its renewal chances much though.

    Anyway I’m backing 3 horses doomed to fail apparently. Go me. I love the odds of that anyway, if even one comes back :)

  • SJ

    Body of Proof, if ABC hates its new pilots or wants to try scripted on Fridays. (Not saying they will or should, just not ruling it out completely.)

    That said, I’m surprised that many people apparently agree, as it’s second only to Harry’s Law, which I knew was going to take #1 in this poll.

  • MattM

    I’m gonna say you’re wrong about Missing and Alcatraz.

  • Kelly

    You know, everyone thinks NBC is the enigma, but I’m not entirely sure where Fox is going, either – they’re ending one of their longest running shows this year, and they seemed quieter than normal during pilot announcements. I just can’t get a handle on what their network vision is, or what they feel might be worth a risk – especially given they’ve lost a major, although badly ailing, anchor show.

  • s0303

    i think all of these will be cancelled…but i think body of proof has the best chance not to be…

  • zerg

    Where is Pan Am? :D i want more 0.7

  • Richard Steven Hack

    No Fringe cancel goof possibility?

    I’d say at this point that only Nikita or Fringe might possibly turn out to be a goof – and Fringe only because of the current idiot rumor going around about 9/10 chance of being renewed.

    Nikita is on the bubble officially, but it looks doomed to me. So I say you should call it and then risk the goof if it does get renewed, which I view as highly unlikely.

    Fringe is in my view doomed and I believe is in the likely to be canceled category, so should be on this poll.

  • Travis27 in Virginia!

    With no one watching any of nbc’s shows I would be very surprised if they didn’t renew harrys law. Looks like I’m one of the few ppl in that 18 to 49 demo who loves the show!

  • alexjones

    I don’t know why you still have last man standing as likely renewal, it’s last original episode was a 1.6, that’s cancellation numbers, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it dosen’t see a second season.

  • Lisa

    LOL, none of the above because the Nikita “on the bubble” status still makes me shake my head in disbelief every time I see it.

    Of the choices given, Any Show Predicted “Certain” or “Likely” Renewal Not Being Renewed is probably the top pick. I also would put Harry’s Law and Body of Proof just maybe not being cancelled on the list, but not with too much confidence. As for Ringer not being cancelled getting so many votes, I love the show, but that’s just not realistic at all.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I have a strange feeling that this is to reveal which show has the most delusional fans?”

    Not primarily, but think of it as an amusing secondary benefit!

  • Michael

    I can see Alcatraz getting a second shot on Fridays maybe paired with a final season of Fringe. I believe both are warner brothers shows and we’ve all seen them cut the licensing fees on their shows numerous times. And they are both JJ Abrams too. I liked it personally, so i wouldn’t mind seeing where they go with it.

  • Simon

    If Fringe gets renewed as I suspect it will I think the one who’ll look like the goof here is Richard Steven Hack, who, lets face it, has been wrong on SEVERAL occassions. First being that the show would hit below 1.0 by episode 13 when in fact it was much, much later than that. He also predicted that the show would not air all its episodes, when in fact it has and will air all 22 episodes this Season. I also seem to remember him predicting the fall of the show last year as well, we know how that turned out!

    I think you may be wrong about many things this Season, just like people were predicting that Once Upon A Time would fail across the board when in fact it’s one of the biggest hits this Season next to Person of Interest.

    I HOPE your wrong about NIKITA it was looking like it’d be canceled last year as well but somehow managed to be picked up for this Season, so lightining could strike twice so, as with Fringe I predict it will be renewed. Read somewhere that the remake had a three Season storyline.

    I voted Missing, loving the show so far but it seems like a one Season deal, plus the more Sean Bean on TV the better.

    Though unlikely I think Alcatraz may come back for another Season and hopefully be paired with Fringe on Friday nights. MUCH better fit for the show than The Finder

  • PW

    i am pray its Awake but I think it will be Finder.

  • PW


  • Steph

    Harry’s Law… I don’t watch it (though I do fall into the demo they need), but isn’t it possible that NBC would renew it for the benefit of the affiliates? I remember a lot of the affiliates were beyond upset with Jay Leno because it didn’t deliver them enough viewers for their local newscast. NBC can’t seem to find anything else, not even Smash, that actually delivers that number of eyeballs at 10 pm. I understand the history of renewals based on the demo, but I’m just wondering if times have changed enough that NBC has to entertain all options?

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