What Will Be The Renew / Cancel Index's Biggest Prediction Goof This Season? (Poll)

Categories: 1-Featured,Broadcast TV

Written By

April 26th, 2012


Every season I make my predictions, and every season there's at least one prediction (sometimes more!) that turns out to be a big goof.

Last year's biggest surprises were probably Chuck & Fringe which were predicted "likely canceled" when they were both eventually renewed. There were no shows last season that were predicted "certain to be canceled" that were renewed. The biggest surprise of all was probably the Dollhouse renewal in spring 2009. I think there's still egg somewhere on my face over that.

What's your guess on the biggest prediction goof this season?

The poll below contains all the shows that my Renew/Cancel Index predicts are either "certain to be canceled" or "likely to be canceled". Instead of listing all the shows predicted as "certain" or "likely to be renewed" I created a single item for all of them (and that's a long shot pick, I've never had a "certain" to be renewed show canceled, and I think 24 was the only "likely" show, but there may have been a couple of others).

My opinion is that being wrong on a "likely" isn't nearly the goof as being wrong on a "certain", and that my "toss up" prediction is a "no guts, no glory, no shame" option. but I'm sure commenters may disagree. Feel free to elaborate in the comments.


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Note that Robert's Bubble Watch predictions are similar, but not exactly the same. Let's keep this guessing to just *my* predictions. Robert can do his own post later if he wishes.

 
  • AlcoholicsAnonymous

    Where is Pan Am? ABC says it’s not canceled and it is still in production.

  • H5O Fan

    I went with BOP, because it did come around the last two weeks it was on, especially for a 10:00 show. Regarding Harry’s Law, I get it has fans, and nothing against it, but since it started up on Sunday night is has been under a demo of under 1.0 for a couple weeks. Even if this show is on NBC, it is now owned by Comcast, and even with Kathy Bates and her rants, is this network going to renew a show with that demo? NBC cancelled shows this fall with higher demos, and it’s not to my knowledge a show that another network would even pickup for a syndication deal. Okay say it is put on Fridays, it will even go lower, when even the shows smallest amount of young viewers will be gone. This show is a no win for Comcast, and making 8 million older viewers mad is not going to make the head of this network lose sleep, when he is dealing with a network that has declined like it has the last 5 years.

  • Nazel

    I just can’t wait for Harry’s Law to be renewed and read Kathy Bate’s “I told you so Bill” tweet haha

  • Greg

    Definitely Body of Proof and Harry’s Law seem to be the shows with more chances of getting renewed on that list. But will they get renewed? Probably not.

  • Fake Me Out

    IMHO

    I actually don’t see these as “goofs” since I attach a percentage likelihood to the groupings which means there is always a chance, no matter how small, of something unlikely occurring … four aces looks pretty good until you’re rivered by a straight flush. Also these predictions are based mostly on just the ratings but there can, at times, be a lot more going on behind the scene that will have an impact that often can’t be factored into these predictions.

    That said, I’ll still be in “nanner nanner, told you so mode” when Harry’s Law gets picked up and moved to Fridays @ 10pm.

    YMMV

    Help save Endgame and watch season 1 on Hulu

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I just can’t wait for Harry’s Law to be renewed and read Kathy Bate’s “I told you so Bill” tweet haha”

    We like getting Tweets from Academy Award winners, regardless of content!

  • Anthony

    Not that I think it will happen but Harry’s Law being renewed would certainly be an ostrich egg thrown at Bill’s face!

  • LOL @ Fake Me Out

    That said, I’ll still be in “nanner nanner, told you so mode” when Harry’s Law gets picked up and moved to Fridays @ 10pm.

    Can you even imagine the fights in the nursing homes, when the residents are fighting for the remote, “Blue Bloods or Harry’s Law”.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Where is Pan Am? ABC says it’s not canceled and it is still in production.”

    “Pan Am Not Canceled” will be in a future “Which Of These Events Didn’t Happen?” poll along with “The Hindenburg Didn’t Burn,” “Pearl Harbor Was Not Bombed,” “JFK Was Not Shot,” etc.

  • Masterbreel

    Did you guys forget Breaking In? That was predicted to be canceled, was canceled and than it was revived….thats seems like a goof

  • Fake Me Out

    @LOL “Can you even imagine the fights in the nursing homes, when the residents are fighting for the remote, “Blue Bloods or Harry’s Law”

    It’ll be a good cardio work out for them … and if wardrobe can get Kathy to show more clevage I think we know which show will win … not that Tom’s chest isn’t dreamy too! ;-)

    YMMV

  • Nadine

    I’m not saying Harry’s Law will be renewed, but if you are asking what is the most likely goof, that would have to be it. It’s a good show, but I’ve got no dog in this race, since I don’t watch it often.

  • FringeFan

    I believe that even shows like Harry Law with low demographics, I do think there is still a chance of them getting renewed simply due to the total amount of viewers it maintained.

  • Dan S

    I obviously voted for Harry’s Law. If this show was on another net like CBS with the same numbers I’d agree HL would be gone. The fact is its NBC’s most watched scripted show. If the show is making $$$$$$ then it will definitely be back regardless of its low demo. Given a 3rd season they can retool the show in hopes of boosting the 18-49 demo. I’m still hopeful that ABC will give a 2nd season renewal to Missing which also has a decent sized audience except where it counts in in the desired demo advertisers covet.

  • scifi

    The River is canceled because studio was in talks with Netflix. I think this is like an official cancelation.

    Nothing will be back.

  • Fake Me Out

    I’m going to amend my earlier comment and say I will consider as a “goof” things like saying Pan Am, or any other show, is canceled when there was no announcement either way and it’s then in fact renewed … putting Pan Am as ‘Certain to be Canceled’ would have, IMHO, been the proper way to list the show until it’s fate was confirmed by either an announcement or lack of mention in the upfronts. It’s like a doctor listing the time of death for a patient while they still have a, albeit faint, heartbeat.

    YMMV

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Did you guys forget Breaking In? That was predicted to be canceled, was canceled and than it was revived….thats seems like a goof”

    Au contraire my friend, it was predicted to be renewed by me, then canceled, and then uncanceled.

    That’s a reverse goof with a triple off the high dive.

    Nailed the landing. ;)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I’m going to amend my earlier comment and say I will consider as a “goof” things like saying Pan Am, or any other show, is canceled when there was no announcement either way and it’s then in fact renewed … putting Pan Am as ‘Certain to be Canceled’ would have, IMHO, been the proper way to list the show until it’s fate was confirmed by either an announcement or lack of mention in the upfronts. It’s like a doctor listing the time of death for a patient while they still have a, albeit faint, heartbeat.”

    I gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed you were joking, but that’s either ridiculously nitpicky or delusional.

    Rookie shows that do not have their orders extended to a full season are canceled.

    There is a heartbeat only in your imagination.

  • Balaji K

    Unforgettable Canceled.

  • Grey

    This is hard but I went with “Harry’s Law” and I see a lot of other people did too. I went with it mainly because of something I read at TVGuide.com posted yesterday. It was an article about all the machinations that will go into what may get cancelled since the ratings for all shows this season are so low across the board. Specifically in regards to “HL” they pointed out the *high* (relatively speaking) total viewers vs. the low 18-49 demo and wrote;

    “’…sometimes it’s better to stick with the devil you know. … You need utility players, and I would think long and hard before throwing out shows like that.’ This is where relationships come into play: If NBC wants to curry favor with [the] studio … or Harry’s Law exec producer David E. Kelley … they might give the Kathy Bates series a renewal.”

    That makes logical sense to me although we all know TV executives don’t always do logical things. :-|

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