Bubble Watch: The CW Will Cancel More Than 2 Shows, Will ‘Nikita’ Be One of Them?
This week’s changes are mostly the nitpicky, hair splitting variety between “likely” and “certain” that some readers are far more entertained by than I am. But there will still be plenty of room to split hairs if you’re so inclined.
With the Fringe renewal out of the way, I’ve upgraded both Alcatraz & The Finder to merely “likely” cancellation rather than certain cancellation. Despite this week’s lows for Touch against the NFL Draft (hey, Fan Excuse Bingo is open to all!) I think it’s still likely that it is picked up at least for a 13 episode second season.
Private Practice was upgraded to likely renewal. In recent ratings there isn’t much separating GCB and Scandal from Revenge, but the former two shows are still on the bubble and the latter is still likely to be renewed. As expected, without a new episode of Modern Family as its lead-in, Don’t Trust the B—- in Apt. 23 fell over 20%, but it’s still likely to be renewed.
With the CW pack of shows tightening, I’ve upgraded Ringer from certain cancellation to likely cancellation and Hart of Dixie from likely cancellation to “on the bubble.” If I were a Nikita fan I would certainly be worried, but as long as it’s a genre show airing on a Friday, even if it has only 2/3rds the ratings of Supernatural it will likely stay on the bubble the remainder of the season, but that’s not cause for celebration.
Based on ratings alone, The L.A. Complex debuted to “certain cancellation” but there’s plenty of room for hairsplitting & disclaiming and semantics. I’ve got it a “likely cancellation” with an asterisk and not because it’s only aired one episode. Before that episode even aired in the U.S. it was renewed for a 13 episode second season in Canada. It seems unlikely those episodes will air on the CW next season, at least during the normal September-May TV season, but we have no “sure to be canceled in the USA, but already renewed in Canada” designation.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn’t coming back next season.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|How To Be a Gentleman||CBS||Canceled|
|I Hate My Teenage Daughter||Fox||Canceled|
|Best Friends Forever||NBC||Canceled|
|The Playboy Club||NBC||Canceled|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|The River||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|A Gifted Man||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|NYC 22||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|Harry’s Law||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|The L.A. Complex*||CW||Likely Cancellation|
|The Finder||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|Are You There, Chelsea?||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Cougar Town||ABC||On The Bubble|
|GCB||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Scandal||ABC||On The Bubble|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rob||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Gossip Girl||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|The Secret Circle||CW||On The Bubble|
|Bob’s Burgers||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Napoleon Dynamite||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Up All Night||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Private Practice||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|30 Rock||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|The Office||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|The Good Wife||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Renewed|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Renewed|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Renewed|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Renewed|
|Desperate Housewives||ABC||Final Season|
|One Tree Hill||CW||Final Season|