Bubble Watch: The CW Will Cancel More Than 2 Shows, Will 'Nikita' Be One of Them?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 29th, 2012

 

This week’s changes are mostly the nitpicky, hair splitting variety between “likely” and “certain” that some readers are far more entertained by than I am.  But there will still be plenty of room to split hairs if you're so inclined.

With the Fringe renewal out of the way, I’ve upgraded both Alcatraz & The Finder to merely “likely” cancellation rather than certain cancellation. Despite this week’s lows for Touch against the NFL Draft (hey, Fan Excuse Bingo is open to all!) I think it’s still likely that it is picked up at least for a 13 episode second season.

Private Practice was upgraded to likely renewal.  In recent ratings there isn’t much separating GCB and Scandal from Revenge, but the former two shows are still on the bubble and the latter is still likely to be renewed. As expected, without a new episode of Modern Family as its lead-in, Don’t Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 fell over 20%, but it’s still likely to be renewed.

With the CW pack of shows tightening, I’ve upgraded Ringer from certain cancellation to likely cancellation and Hart Of Dixie from likely cancellation to “on the bubble.” If I were a Nikita fan I would certainly be worried, but as long as it’s a genre show airing on a Friday, even if it has only 2/3rds the ratings of Supernatural it will likely stay on the bubble the remainder of the season, but that’s not cause for celebration.

Based on ratings alone, The L.A. Complex debuted to “certain cancellation” but there’s plenty of room for hairsplitting & disclaiming and semantics. I’ve got it a “likely cancellation” with an asterisk and not because it’s only aired one episode. Before that episode even aired in the U.S. it was renewed for a 13 episode second season in Canada. It seems unlikely those episodes will air on the CW next season, at least during the normal September-May TV season, but we have no “sure to be canceled in the USA, but already renewed in Canada” designation.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

 

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

 

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
Best Friends Forever NBC Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
NYC 22 CBS Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
The L.A. Complex* CW Likely Cancellation
Ringer CW Likely Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Private Practice ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
Touch Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • NJ Viewer

    I watch Nikita, and kind of like it. But I have to admit, the original cable series was a lot better.

  • Sid

    @Dan

    Who are you again?

  • Kevin

    I know Nikita has lots of fans but that show is done IMO. It’s has more than one chance to pick up its subpar ratings and it still hasn’t, it’s a goner.

  • Sara

    Love, love, love seeing Fringe in the Renewed column. It’s such a pretty blue.

  • Gramii

    ONE TREE HILL
    RINGER
    NIKITA
    HART OF DIXIE

    That’s four slots all ready empty. They could dump Gossip Girl or The Secret Circle to make it five and air Cult midseason when ANTM is on hiatus.

    The new president is going to want to do everything he can after the huge embarrassment of this season.

  • CrimTV

    @John

    “Something interesting to note about HOD is that it is set to premier in England this week, would they go ahead with that if it was scheduled to be canceled? ”

    First of all, it’s not England, it’s The UK, and second of all, i’m recording it and yes they are going to air all the episodes, they won’t just air 3 episodes and if it’s cancelled in the US, just stop it

  • Melanie

    @Petar – It probably means viewers in the demo, since that’s who the advertisers are trying to reach.

  • Andrew

    RENEW HART OF DIXIE !

  • pandorajinel(formerly Erin)

    @Ultima
    Ah! Thank you.

  • mat

    damn fringe, that show has been on for 4 years and they renewed it at maybe the cost of alcatraz, alcatraz is so much better than fringe, i wanna knw what happens after the end of alcatraz season 1!!!

  • Joseph

    I think The CW might indeed cancel three or even four shows, in order to convert Fridays to all-reruns (or maybe an hour-long reality show and an hour of reruns).

  • The End

    @Dan

    What’s your problem exactly? You seem to love throwing insults at people for no apparent reason.

    Grow up.

  • JJJ

    @Joseph–the CW has no reason to put Fridays to reruns or reality…because of SPN they are doing better on Friday than any other day. That said they will cancel at least 3 or 4 shows because their ratings suck.

  • Dan

    @TheEnd-I’m not throwing insults at anyone. I just find the two of you to be incredibly annoying and douchebag-ish. It’s an opinion, not an insult. I just don’t see why you had to waste your time pointing out that I called someone a dbag. Don’t you have anything better to do than to sift through the comments and point out what people did? Also the fact that you called me out after another user already “gave a personal attack” is just weird. Why ignore him and go for me? Sid’s been rude to me before on this site as he’s been with multiple people. I’m done talking about it because this isn’t the point of this website. The fact that you called me out was a waste of comment space. Now if you would actually like to debate/talk about TV shows and ratings, I’ll be glad. But if you’re just going to whine to the webmasters of this site about my use of the word douchebag, don’t waste your time typing back!

  • The Big Toe

    Here’s what I would expect canceled:

    ABC:
    *Body of Proof
    *Cougar Town
    *Don’t Trust the B in Apartment 23
    *GCB
    *Missing
    *The River

    CBS:
    *A Gifted Man
    *NYC 22
    *Rob
    *Unforgettable

    The CW:
    *Hart of Dixie
    *The L.A. Complex
    *Nikita
    *Ringer

    Fox:
    *Alcatraz
    *The Finder
    *Napoleon Dynamite
    *Touch

    NBC:
    *Awake (@johnB, I love Awake, too)
    *Are You There, Chelsea?
    *Bent
    *Harry’s Law
    *Parenthood
    *The Office (it’s just the cast, not the ratings)
    *Whitney

  • The End

    @Dan

    You don’t know a single thing about either me or Sid. You have no right to keep calling us douchebags either.

    Back to my original point. Grow up and get a life.

  • Dan

    I am just dying that you’re telling me to grow up when you went out of your way to let the webmasters know I called someone a douchebag a few pages before? I may need to grow up, but you’re worse than I am. I do know that Sid is rude and that you are immature enough TO COMPLAIN TO WEBMASTERS. As if they care. Just keep commenting because I find it highly entertaining. This is so much better than writing my paper :)

  • David

    Lol. Why does everyone act as if Bubble Watch and Rob’s predictions are like final decision? They’re opinions. No need to get worked up over them. He uses credible reasons as to why shows may or may not be renewed. He doesn’t work for any of the broadcasting companies though, so he obviously isn’t 100% in his results. Sometimes networks make crazy decisions. It happens, but it doesn’t mean he needs to “suck it” or “eat it” or whatever for being wrong in his predictions. He’s giving us his opinion, not TV intel.

  • The Big Toe

    The CW will cancel the following:

    *Gossip Girl
    *Hart of Dixie
    *The L.A. Complex
    *Nikita

  • The Big Toe

    @The Big Toe: LIST UPDATE!

    *Hart of Dixie
    *The L.A. Complex
    *Nikita
    *Ringer

    Sorry if I scared you Gossip Girl fans! My bad!

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