This week’s changes are mostly the nitpicky, hair splitting variety between “likely” and “certain” that some readers are far more entertained by than I am. But there will still be plenty of room to split hairs if you're so inclined.
With the Fringe renewal out of the way, I’ve upgraded both Alcatraz & The Finder to merely “likely” cancellation rather than certain cancellation. Despite this week’s lows for Touch against the NFL Draft (hey, Fan Excuse Bingo is open to all!) I think it’s still likely that it is picked up at least for a 13 episode second season.
Private Practice was upgraded to likely renewal. In recent ratings there isn’t much separating GCB and Scandal from Revenge, but the former two shows are still on the bubble and the latter is still likely to be renewed. As expected, without a new episode of Modern Family as its lead-in, Don’t Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 fell over 20%, but it’s still likely to be renewed.
With the CW pack of shows tightening, I’ve upgraded Ringer from certain cancellation to likely cancellation and Hart Of Dixie from likely cancellation to “on the bubble.” If I were a Nikita fan I would certainly be worried, but as long as it’s a genre show airing on a Friday, even if it has only 2/3rds the ratings of Supernatural it will likely stay on the bubble the remainder of the season, but that’s not cause for celebration.
Based on ratings alone, The L.A. Complex debuted to “certain cancellation” but there’s plenty of room for hairsplitting & disclaiming and semantics. I’ve got it a “likely cancellation” with an asterisk and not because it’s only aired one episode. Before that episode even aired in the U.S. it was renewed for a 13 episode second season in Canada. It seems unlikely those episodes will air on the CW next season, at least during the normal September-May TV season, but we have no “sure to be canceled in the USA, but already renewed in Canada” designation.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| Charlie's Angels | ABC | Canceled |
| Man Up | ABC | Canceled |
| Pan Am | ABC | Canceled |
| Work It | ABC | Canceled |
| How To Be A Gentleman | CBS | Canceled |
| Allen Gregory | Fox | Canceled |
| Breaking In | Fox | Canceled |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter | Fox | Canceled |
| Terra Nova | Fox | Canceled |
| Best Friends Forever | NBC | Canceled |
| The Firm | NBC | Canceled |
| Free Agents | NBC | Canceled |
| Prime Suspect | NBC | Canceled |
| The Playboy Club | NBC | Canceled |
| Body Of Proof | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Missing | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| The River | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| A Gifted Man | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| NYC 22 | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| Awake | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Bent | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Harry's Law | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Unforgettable | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| The L.A. Complex* | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Ringer | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Alcatraz | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| The Finder | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Are You There, Chelsea? | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Cougar Town | ABC | On The Bubble |
| GCB | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: Miami | CBS | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rob | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Gossip Girl | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Secret Circle | CW | On The Bubble |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Napoleon Dynamite | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Up All Night | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Private Practice | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| 90210 | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Touch | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Community | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Whitney | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Office | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Renewed |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Renewed |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Renewed |
| CSI | CBS | Renewed |
| The Good Wife | CBS | Renewed |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| The Mentalist | CBS | Renewed |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Renewed |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| Fringe | Fox | Renewed |
| Glee | Fox | Renewed |
| New Girl | Fox | Renewed |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| Grimm | NBC | Renewed |
| Smash | NBC | Renewed |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | Final Season |
| One Tree Hill | CW | Final Season |
| House | Fox | Final Season |
| Chuck | NBC | Final Season |
I watch Nikita, and kind of like it. But I have to admit, the original cable series was a lot better.
@Dan
Who are you again?
I know Nikita has lots of fans but that show is done IMO. It’s has more than one chance to pick up its subpar ratings and it still hasn’t, it’s a goner.
Love, love, love seeing Fringe in the Renewed column. It’s such a pretty blue.
ONE TREE HILL
RINGER
NIKITA
HART OF DIXIE
That’s four slots all ready empty. They could dump Gossip Girl or The Secret Circle to make it five and air Cult midseason when ANTM is on hiatus.
The new president is going to want to do everything he can after the huge embarrassment of this season.
@John
“Something interesting to note about HOD is that it is set to premier in England this week, would they go ahead with that if it was scheduled to be canceled? ”
First of all, it’s not England, it’s The UK, and second of all, i’m recording it and yes they are going to air all the episodes, they won’t just air 3 episodes and if it’s cancelled in the US, just stop it
@Petar – It probably means viewers in the demo, since that’s who the advertisers are trying to reach.
RENEW HART OF DIXIE !
@Ultima
Ah! Thank you.
damn fringe, that show has been on for 4 years and they renewed it at maybe the cost of alcatraz, alcatraz is so much better than fringe, i wanna knw what happens after the end of alcatraz season 1!!!
I think The CW might indeed cancel three or even four shows, in order to convert Fridays to all-reruns (or maybe an hour-long reality show and an hour of reruns).
@Dan
What’s your problem exactly? You seem to love throwing insults at people for no apparent reason.
Grow up.
@Joseph–the CW has no reason to put Fridays to reruns or reality…because of SPN they are doing better on Friday than any other day. That said they will cancel at least 3 or 4 shows because their ratings suck.
@TheEnd-I’m not throwing insults at anyone. I just find the two of you to be incredibly annoying and douchebag-ish. It’s an opinion, not an insult. I just don’t see why you had to waste your time pointing out that I called someone a dbag. Don’t you have anything better to do than to sift through the comments and point out what people did? Also the fact that you called me out after another user already “gave a personal attack” is just weird. Why ignore him and go for me? Sid’s been rude to me before on this site as he’s been with multiple people. I’m done talking about it because this isn’t the point of this website. The fact that you called me out was a waste of comment space. Now if you would actually like to debate/talk about TV shows and ratings, I’ll be glad. But if you’re just going to whine to the webmasters of this site about my use of the word douchebag, don’t waste your time typing back!
Here’s what I would expect canceled:
ABC:
*Body of Proof
*Cougar Town
*Don’t Trust the B in Apartment 23
*GCB
*Missing
*The River
CBS:
*A Gifted Man
*NYC 22
*Rob
*Unforgettable
The CW:
*Hart of Dixie
*The L.A. Complex
*Nikita
*Ringer
Fox:
*Alcatraz
*The Finder
*Napoleon Dynamite
*Touch
NBC:
*Awake (@johnB, I love Awake, too)
*Are You There, Chelsea?
*Bent
*Harry’s Law
*Parenthood
*The Office (it’s just the cast, not the ratings)
*Whitney
@Dan
You don’t know a single thing about either me or Sid. You have no right to keep calling us douchebags either.
Back to my original point. Grow up and get a life.
I am just dying that you’re telling me to grow up when you went out of your way to let the webmasters know I called someone a douchebag a few pages before? I may need to grow up, but you’re worse than I am. I do know that Sid is rude and that you are immature enough TO COMPLAIN TO WEBMASTERS. As if they care. Just keep commenting because I find it highly entertaining. This is so much better than writing my paper
Lol. Why does everyone act as if Bubble Watch and Rob’s predictions are like final decision? They’re opinions. No need to get worked up over them. He uses credible reasons as to why shows may or may not be renewed. He doesn’t work for any of the broadcasting companies though, so he obviously isn’t 100% in his results. Sometimes networks make crazy decisions. It happens, but it doesn’t mean he needs to “suck it” or “eat it” or whatever for being wrong in his predictions. He’s giving us his opinion, not TV intel.
The CW will cancel the following:
*Gossip Girl
*Hart of Dixie
*The L.A. Complex
*Nikita
@The Big Toe: LIST UPDATE!
*Hart of Dixie
*The L.A. Complex
*Nikita
*Ringer
Sorry if I scared you Gossip Girl fans! My bad!