This week’s changes are mostly the nitpicky, hair splitting variety between “likely” and “certain” that some readers are far more entertained by than I am. But there will still be plenty of room to split hairs if you're so inclined.
With the Fringe renewal out of the way, I’ve upgraded both Alcatraz & The Finder to merely “likely” cancellation rather than certain cancellation. Despite this week’s lows for Touch against the NFL Draft (hey, Fan Excuse Bingo is open to all!) I think it’s still likely that it is picked up at least for a 13 episode second season.
Private Practice was upgraded to likely renewal. In recent ratings there isn’t much separating GCB and Scandal from Revenge, but the former two shows are still on the bubble and the latter is still likely to be renewed. As expected, without a new episode of Modern Family as its lead-in, Don’t Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 fell over 20%, but it’s still likely to be renewed.
With the CW pack of shows tightening, I’ve upgraded Ringer from certain cancellation to likely cancellation and Hart Of Dixie from likely cancellation to “on the bubble.” If I were a Nikita fan I would certainly be worried, but as long as it’s a genre show airing on a Friday, even if it has only 2/3rds the ratings of Supernatural it will likely stay on the bubble the remainder of the season, but that’s not cause for celebration.
Based on ratings alone, The L.A. Complex debuted to “certain cancellation” but there’s plenty of room for hairsplitting & disclaiming and semantics. I’ve got it a “likely cancellation” with an asterisk and not because it’s only aired one episode. Before that episode even aired in the U.S. it was renewed for a 13 episode second season in Canada. It seems unlikely those episodes will air on the CW next season, at least during the normal September-May TV season, but we have no “sure to be canceled in the USA, but already renewed in Canada” designation.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| Charlie's Angels | ABC | Canceled |
| Man Up | ABC | Canceled |
| Pan Am | ABC | Canceled |
| Work It | ABC | Canceled |
| How To Be A Gentleman | CBS | Canceled |
| Allen Gregory | Fox | Canceled |
| Breaking In | Fox | Canceled |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter | Fox | Canceled |
| Terra Nova | Fox | Canceled |
| Best Friends Forever | NBC | Canceled |
| The Firm | NBC | Canceled |
| Free Agents | NBC | Canceled |
| Prime Suspect | NBC | Canceled |
| The Playboy Club | NBC | Canceled |
| Body Of Proof | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Missing | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| The River | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| A Gifted Man | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| NYC 22 | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| Awake | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Bent | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Harry's Law | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Unforgettable | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| The L.A. Complex* | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Ringer | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Alcatraz | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| The Finder | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Are You There, Chelsea? | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Cougar Town | ABC | On The Bubble |
| GCB | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: Miami | CBS | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rob | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Gossip Girl | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Secret Circle | CW | On The Bubble |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Napoleon Dynamite | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Up All Night | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Private Practice | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| 90210 | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Touch | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Community | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Whitney | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Office | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Renewed |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Renewed |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Renewed |
| CSI | CBS | Renewed |
| The Good Wife | CBS | Renewed |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| The Mentalist | CBS | Renewed |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Renewed |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| Fringe | Fox | Renewed |
| Glee | Fox | Renewed |
| New Girl | Fox | Renewed |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| Grimm | NBC | Renewed |
| Smash | NBC | Renewed |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | Final Season |
| One Tree Hill | CW | Final Season |
| House | Fox | Final Season |
| Chuck | NBC | Final Season |
@TBT: I’m sure they were waiting with baited breath for your update.
@Dillan
I’m really sorry about that. I looked at both your posts with the D’s and got confused(Allergies are so much fun right now
). Once again, I’m sorry.
@Dan
Honestly I’m not even going to bother to waste my time trying to remember who you are/what I said to you because that would mean that I actually care; which I don’t. Have a nice day
@Sid
Well said, I’m done with this topic too. Surprised he’s not banned with the amount of insults he’s been throwing our way for no reason. Not like I care who he is, I just wanted to know what his problem was, as he seems to of targetted me too. My first hater on this website in my time posting here, I should be honored. You probably have more by the sound of things though lol
The best rated FOX rookie drama show, Terra Nova, is already cancelled. It is hard to imagine Fox renewing any of them. But then Reilly does make some really terrible decisions.
Including making this show. When I saw the premiere, my jaw hit the floor. I was like, they spent 20 million bucks on THIS?
If it had been cheaper by a third and if they had cast it properly (gotten a charismatic lead actor or 2 members in the cast — any 2 — who had something resembling chemistry) it wouldn’t have been a bad bet, but as it were, it was way too expensive and nowhere near good enough.
If they’re going to cancel Nikita, then Hart of Dixie better get cancelled too!
If both are cancelled then here’s an idea: give Nikita a 13 episode series finale and have Rachel Bilson guest star as a new villain or something
Why is everybody keeps sayin’ that HOD keeps on bombing coz it has a bad lead in where in fact that said show also got an (awfully) bad actress as well…
I’m no Gossip Girl fan but during its 1ST season, it is one of the highest if not the most; rated show in CW… while HOD’s IST seeason pathetically continues to rank at the bottom of barrel – I’d say GG doesnt get a “fair” comparison here huh!?
I hope CW cancels HOD, TSC, Nikita and Ringer. Make room for something new. I wish Gossip Girl would end as well. I’m still watching out of loyalty to the actors and the show that it used to be. But I won’t be watching it next season, if renewed. That goes for the other shows I mentioned too.
This index needs updating. Some of the newest renewals are missing.
@Storm, I agree with you exept for TSC & Gossip Girl. Gossip Girl is close to getting picked up for a sixth and final season season as I hear it. Instead of The Secret Circle getting axed, The CW will DEFINITELY cancel The L.A. Complex.
Other than that, Ringer, HOD, and Nikita will be canceled.
I think Ringer needs to stay. It did what it could on a tuesday night, the others have no excuses. Although, I am pretty much a fan of them all, I love Ringer the most. It was awesome. I think Nikita and The Secret Circle should get the ax. Mostly, I am throwing those two under the bus because Nikita is in season 2 and still hasn’t found its audience and The Secret Circle got the thursday timeslot after Vampire Diaries and still performed like crap. I don’t watch Gossip Girl, but that is most likely to be renewed, even though everyone wants it to end, actors included. And Hart of Dixie is a good show but it doesn’t feel like CW, even though I hope it get renewed too.