This week’s changes are mostly the nitpicky, hair splitting variety between “likely” and “certain” that some readers are far more entertained by than I am. But there will still be plenty of room to split hairs if you're so inclined.
With the Fringe renewal out of the way, I’ve upgraded both Alcatraz & The Finder to merely “likely” cancellation rather than certain cancellation. Despite this week’s lows for Touch against the NFL Draft (hey, Fan Excuse Bingo is open to all!) I think it’s still likely that it is picked up at least for a 13 episode second season.
Private Practice was upgraded to likely renewal. In recent ratings there isn’t much separating GCB and Scandal from Revenge, but the former two shows are still on the bubble and the latter is still likely to be renewed. As expected, without a new episode of Modern Family as its lead-in, Don’t Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 fell over 20%, but it’s still likely to be renewed.
With the CW pack of shows tightening, I’ve upgraded Ringer from certain cancellation to likely cancellation and Hart Of Dixie from likely cancellation to “on the bubble.” If I were a Nikita fan I would certainly be worried, but as long as it’s a genre show airing on a Friday, even if it has only 2/3rds the ratings of Supernatural it will likely stay on the bubble the remainder of the season, but that’s not cause for celebration.
Based on ratings alone, The L.A. Complex debuted to “certain cancellation” but there’s plenty of room for hairsplitting & disclaiming and semantics. I’ve got it a “likely cancellation” with an asterisk and not because it’s only aired one episode. Before that episode even aired in the U.S. it was renewed for a 13 episode second season in Canada. It seems unlikely those episodes will air on the CW next season, at least during the normal September-May TV season, but we have no “sure to be canceled in the USA, but already renewed in Canada” designation.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| Charlie's Angels | ABC | Canceled |
| Man Up | ABC | Canceled |
| Pan Am | ABC | Canceled |
| Work It | ABC | Canceled |
| How To Be A Gentleman | CBS | Canceled |
| Allen Gregory | Fox | Canceled |
| Breaking In | Fox | Canceled |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter | Fox | Canceled |
| Terra Nova | Fox | Canceled |
| Best Friends Forever | NBC | Canceled |
| The Firm | NBC | Canceled |
| Free Agents | NBC | Canceled |
| Prime Suspect | NBC | Canceled |
| The Playboy Club | NBC | Canceled |
| Body Of Proof | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Missing | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| The River | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| A Gifted Man | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| NYC 22 | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| Awake | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Bent | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Harry's Law | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Unforgettable | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| The L.A. Complex* | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Ringer | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Alcatraz | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| The Finder | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Are You There, Chelsea? | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Cougar Town | ABC | On The Bubble |
| GCB | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: Miami | CBS | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rob | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Gossip Girl | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Secret Circle | CW | On The Bubble |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Napoleon Dynamite | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Up All Night | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Private Practice | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| 90210 | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Touch | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Community | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Whitney | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Office | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Renewed |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Renewed |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Renewed |
| CSI | CBS | Renewed |
| The Good Wife | CBS | Renewed |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| The Mentalist | CBS | Renewed |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Renewed |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| Fringe | Fox | Renewed |
| Glee | Fox | Renewed |
| New Girl | Fox | Renewed |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| Grimm | NBC | Renewed |
| Smash | NBC | Renewed |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | Final Season |
| One Tree Hill | CW | Final Season |
| House | Fox | Final Season |
| Chuck | NBC | Final Season |
nikita should get renewed because is a procedural has 22 more episodes than the other shows
@big toe!
That’s what I’m saying! I think Season 2 is the end of Nikita! and a new it wasn’t going to stay long on The CW! Ringer and Nikita is not CW-Type, maybe FOX yes!
Touch should be downgraded. I mean, seriousley: It has American Idol leading into it and after seven episodes it’s already under 2.0 in the demo?
Ringer should be in the certain cancellation category and Nikita should be in the likely cancellation category. They both hit 0.4.
Ringer,Nikita,la complex need to be,should be cancelled first because of poor ratings and/or demo.If cw renews Nikita or Ringer, they deserve to go under and close down next season and Mark Pedowitz will deserve to be fired. I’m a Nikita fan,but four 0.4 with 2-3 more coming for the rest of the season is just too bad/low even by CW standards.Renewing these shows won’t help or save the network,espcially if thier new shows tank next season. I doubt they’ll pick up six new shows, I think four to five.I really want GG,VD, SC, HoD renewed but think that one of or both of SC &H oD could/will be cancelled. Though if GG gets a shortened final season,Ringer,Nikita,La Complex get cancelled there’s three pots, oth/h8trs old spot makes four and they’ll put a show on Wed &9 between Top Model cycles or after Top Model ends wich I think will be after cycle 19 that makes five spots without having to cancel SC or HoD, not that they’re doing great in ratings but I think they have done better than a few shows and could improve next season, I think they have several factors that make a renwal good.
@The Big Toe
I didn’t say it should be likely cancellation, that’s just where Robert put it in the bubble watch
I heared Alcatraz can become a midseason replacement for Fringe.
I hope FOX try alkatraz after x factor in the fall! At least 2-3 ep and if that doesn’t work out will move it to friday night and pair with fringe or touch!
And about the CW – THIS:
gustavo:
Cancel the whole network. The ratings of every single show of this netwok are worst than bad.I would move TVD to NBC (where the ratings are similar) and end with the other shows.
If CW doesn’t renew “Supernatural,” I’m finished with that network. It’s the ONLY good show on the network and I’m not impressed, at all, with their upcoming pilots.
The CW might as well give GG a sixth and final 22 episode season because the network is in such bad shape.
I guess ‘The Finder’ is certainly-likely to be canceled.
My disagreeances are:
- Several Likely vs. Certain (mostly up from Robert’s)
- I have Cougar Town ‘Likely Cancellation’
- I have Rules of Engagement ‘Likely Renewal’
- I have Napoleon Dynamite ‘Likely Cancellation’
- I have Nikita ‘Likely Cancellation’
- I have Hart of Dixie ‘Likely Cancellation’
- I have Gossip Girl ‘Likely Renewal’
- I have Touch ‘On the Bubble’
- I include unscripted shows
I take it the Fringe renewal has made you a little gun shy, Robert?
oops. indeed Alcatraz and The Finder are certainly likely to be canceled, but I fixed the table so they only show up as “likely.”
supernatural will go out next year , nikita is on the fence , ringer is gone. so is finder. if LAC comes back it will be in the form of summer. one show from each night will go from CW line up.
@Sf. Travis: I don’t know why Alcatraz and The Finder are in 2 sections at once, but that should not be that way.
scifi:
I heared Alcatraz can become a midseason replacement for Fringe
I still hope fox give it a chance at least 2-3 ep after Idol/factor in the fall! House was with similar ratings in the begining and people thought that will be cancel and than they(FOX) move it after Idol and became big hit!Lucky but true! Alkatraz have really bad luck for new show to go after first(the voice) month where the voice was even with better ratings than idol!
Thanks for fixing the Alcatraz & Finder problem, @Robert.
crossing fingers and tos for Cougar Town’s renewal! ABC messed with its schedule and did so little promotion, it would be only fair..had it remained after MF, I’m sure it would have the same ratings as Happy Endings (I have nothing against HE, just to be clear!).
CW will renew Nikita for 13 episodes in case whatever show they put on Friday at 8 bomb. There’s still lower demo #s than 0.5-0.4. Ha! lol