Bubble Watch: The CW Will Cancel More Than 2 Shows, Will 'Nikita' Be One of Them?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 29th, 2012

 

This week’s changes are mostly the nitpicky, hair splitting variety between “likely” and “certain” that some readers are far more entertained by than I am.  But there will still be plenty of room to split hairs if you're so inclined.

With the Fringe renewal out of the way, I’ve upgraded both Alcatraz & The Finder to merely “likely” cancellation rather than certain cancellation. Despite this week’s lows for Touch against the NFL Draft (hey, Fan Excuse Bingo is open to all!) I think it’s still likely that it is picked up at least for a 13 episode second season.

Private Practice was upgraded to likely renewal.  In recent ratings there isn’t much separating GCB and Scandal from Revenge, but the former two shows are still on the bubble and the latter is still likely to be renewed. As expected, without a new episode of Modern Family as its lead-in, Don’t Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 fell over 20%, but it’s still likely to be renewed.

With the CW pack of shows tightening, I’ve upgraded Ringer from certain cancellation to likely cancellation and Hart Of Dixie from likely cancellation to “on the bubble.” If I were a Nikita fan I would certainly be worried, but as long as it’s a genre show airing on a Friday, even if it has only 2/3rds the ratings of Supernatural it will likely stay on the bubble the remainder of the season, but that’s not cause for celebration.

Based on ratings alone, The L.A. Complex debuted to “certain cancellation” but there’s plenty of room for hairsplitting & disclaiming and semantics. I’ve got it a “likely cancellation” with an asterisk and not because it’s only aired one episode. Before that episode even aired in the U.S. it was renewed for a 13 episode second season in Canada. It seems unlikely those episodes will air on the CW next season, at least during the normal September-May TV season, but we have no “sure to be canceled in the USA, but already renewed in Canada” designation.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

 

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

 

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
Best Friends Forever NBC Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
NYC 22 CBS Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
The L.A. Complex* CW Likely Cancellation
Ringer CW Likely Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Private Practice ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
Touch Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • peter

    nikita should get renewed because is a procedural has 22 more episodes than the other shows

  • WB

    @big toe!

    That’s what I’m saying! I think Season 2 is the end of Nikita! and a new it wasn’t going to stay long on The CW! Ringer and Nikita is not CW-Type, maybe FOX yes!

  • Data

    Touch should be downgraded. I mean, seriousley: It has American Idol leading into it and after seven episodes it’s already under 2.0 in the demo?

  • SmG

    Ringer should be in the certain cancellation category and Nikita should be in the likely cancellation category. They both hit 0.4.

  • Brandy

    Ringer,Nikita,la complex need to be,should be cancelled first because of poor ratings and/or demo.If cw renews Nikita or Ringer, they deserve to go under and close down next season and Mark Pedowitz will deserve to be fired. I’m a Nikita fan,but four 0.4 with 2-3 more coming for the rest of the season is just too bad/low even by CW standards.Renewing these shows won’t help or save the network,espcially if thier new shows tank next season. I doubt they’ll pick up six new shows, I think four to five.I really want GG,VD, SC, HoD renewed but think that one of or both of SC &H oD could/will be cancelled. Though if GG gets a shortened final season,Ringer,Nikita,La Complex get cancelled there’s three pots, oth/h8trs old spot makes four and they’ll put a show on Wed &9 between Top Model cycles or after Top Model ends wich I think will be after cycle 19 that makes five spots without having to cancel SC or HoD, not that they’re doing great in ratings but I think they have done better than a few shows and could improve next season, I think they have several factors that make a renwal good.

  • CrimTV

    @The Big Toe

    I didn’t say it should be likely cancellation, that’s just where Robert put it in the bubble watch

  • scifi

    I heared Alcatraz can become a midseason replacement for Fringe.

  • Petar

    I hope FOX try alkatraz after x factor in the fall! At least 2-3 ep and if that doesn’t work out will move it to friday night and pair with fringe or touch!

    And about the CW – THIS:

    gustavo:
    Cancel the whole network. The ratings of every single show of this netwok are worst than bad.I would move TVD to NBC (where the ratings are similar) and end with the other shows.

  • deborah

    If CW doesn’t renew “Supernatural,” I’m finished with that network. It’s the ONLY good show on the network and I’m not impressed, at all, with their upcoming pilots.

  • CrimTV

    The CW might as well give GG a sixth and final 22 episode season because the network is in such bad shape.

  • Sf. Travis

    I guess ‘The Finder’ is certainly-likely to be canceled. ;)

  • Survivor Fan

    My disagreeances are:

    – Several Likely vs. Certain (mostly up from Robert’s)
    – I have Cougar Town ‘Likely Cancellation’
    – I have Rules of Engagement ‘Likely Renewal’
    – I have Napoleon Dynamite ‘Likely Cancellation’
    – I have Nikita ‘Likely Cancellation’
    – I have Hart of Dixie ‘Likely Cancellation’
    – I have Gossip Girl ‘Likely Renewal’
    – I have Touch ‘On the Bubble’
    – I include unscripted shows

  • Michael

    I take it the Fringe renewal has made you a little gun shy, Robert?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    oops. indeed Alcatraz and The Finder are certainly likely to be canceled, but I fixed the table so they only show up as “likely.”

  • DW

    supernatural will go out next year , nikita is on the fence , ringer is gone. so is finder. if LAC comes back it will be in the form of summer. one show from each night will go from CW line up.

  • The Big Toe

    @Sf. Travis: I don’t know why Alcatraz and The Finder are in 2 sections at once, but that should not be that way.

  • Petar

    scifi:
    I heared Alcatraz can become a midseason replacement for Fringe

    I still hope fox give it a chance at least 2-3 ep after Idol/factor in the fall! House was with similar ratings in the begining and people thought that will be cancel and than they(FOX) move it after Idol and became big hit!Lucky but true! Alkatraz have really bad luck for new show to go after first(the voice) month where the voice was even with better ratings than idol!

  • The Big Toe

    Thanks for fixing the Alcatraz & Finder problem, @Robert.

  • Jane

    crossing fingers and tos for Cougar Town’s renewal! ABC messed with its schedule and did so little promotion, it would be only fair..had it remained after MF, I’m sure it would have the same ratings as Happy Endings (I have nothing against HE, just to be clear!).

  • Baqinardo

    CW will renew Nikita for 13 episodes in case whatever show they put on Friday at 8 bomb. There’s still lower demo #s than 0.5-0.4. Ha! lol

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