Bubble Watch: The CW Will Cancel More Than 2 Shows, Will 'Nikita' Be One of Them?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 29th, 2012

 

This week’s changes are mostly the nitpicky, hair splitting variety between “likely” and “certain” that some readers are far more entertained by than I am.  But there will still be plenty of room to split hairs if you're so inclined.

With the Fringe renewal out of the way, I’ve upgraded both Alcatraz & The Finder to merely “likely” cancellation rather than certain cancellation. Despite this week’s lows for Touch against the NFL Draft (hey, Fan Excuse Bingo is open to all!) I think it’s still likely that it is picked up at least for a 13 episode second season.

Private Practice was upgraded to likely renewal.  In recent ratings there isn’t much separating GCB and Scandal from Revenge, but the former two shows are still on the bubble and the latter is still likely to be renewed. As expected, without a new episode of Modern Family as its lead-in, Don’t Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 fell over 20%, but it’s still likely to be renewed.

With the CW pack of shows tightening, I’ve upgraded Ringer from certain cancellation to likely cancellation and Hart Of Dixie from likely cancellation to “on the bubble.” If I were a Nikita fan I would certainly be worried, but as long as it’s a genre show airing on a Friday, even if it has only 2/3rds the ratings of Supernatural it will likely stay on the bubble the remainder of the season, but that’s not cause for celebration.

Based on ratings alone, The L.A. Complex debuted to “certain cancellation” but there’s plenty of room for hairsplitting & disclaiming and semantics. I’ve got it a “likely cancellation” with an asterisk and not because it’s only aired one episode. Before that episode even aired in the U.S. it was renewed for a 13 episode second season in Canada. It seems unlikely those episodes will air on the CW next season, at least during the normal September-May TV season, but we have no “sure to be canceled in the USA, but already renewed in Canada” designation.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

 

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

 

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
Best Friends Forever NBC Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
NYC 22 CBS Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
The L.A. Complex* CW Likely Cancellation
Ringer CW Likely Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Private Practice ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
Touch Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • pandorajinel(formerly Erin)

    @KS
    Robert said a thousand times that SPN was on the bubble only because CW is in such a dire situation that he doesn’t feel comfortable predicting what they’ll do. It’s why most of the CW line up was on the bubble for so long. Robert updated when he had new information i.e. the announcement of a new show runner. Lay off of him.

  • Mark

    @WB

    “9. and lastly good ole AMERICA’s NEXT TOP MODEL! It is the only show renewed by The CW. It has been doing great for The CW, but has been suddenly affected by “””THE CW INSTANT DROP PHENOMENON!””. ANTM has gotten old and I think it’s about that time to end it after next year or maybe try something new as putting it a summer series! I also think ANTM should move to fridays. hmmmm idk!”

    I said this on the CW renew thread, but I believe the CW should look into making ATNM a “summer show”. By making ATNM a summer show the CW can have some first run programming in the summer to promote new shows. I actually think if you take away it’s competition, it’s ratings might actually go up a bit

  • WB

    @ Mark

    When actually thinking about it, it sounds like a great Idea! I def. agree!

  • Bunny

    TVline Updated their renewal scorecard and put Apt 23 in :
    “Could go either way” ..which I don’t get//it should be “a sure thing”

  • WB

    ^^ about ANTM being place in the summer

  • Bunny

    @Jane
    Cougar Town has been after Modern Family for 2 years and the show didn’t improve rating-wise..while HE and Apt 23 will prob last 1 season there..

    I wouldn’t be shock if it’s a surprised renewal tho: in-house production and 29 eps to go till syndication..

  • Ram510

    Since I don’t believe CW will pick up 6 shows (I think more like 4 with one being midseason) I think Nikita will some how be renewed pretty much cause the don’t have anything else the can air Friday @ 8 that can get as many viewers (Nikita is still 3rd highest in viewers). It’s .4 rating isn’t great but show me something on The CW that is

  • MattG

    Still think TOUCH has BUBBLE written all over it (if not CANCELLED ;)). But I guess we’ll see about that.

  • Brandy

    Sid, people critize nikita more than the freshman shows cause a0.4 no matter what night is terrible&Hart &SC havent hit 0.4s yet, nikita had a second chance and its failing majorly, nikita is paired with CWS second or third highest show(spn,) but it does much worse, Hart ties or outperforms its leadin while nikita failed to do so last year, plus of nikita, ringer, SC,Hart, Hart has lost the least amount of viewers over the season,plus competition comes in_Hart has Voice, Dancing, 2.5men and SC has Ai, Greys, PoI, BBT, Ringer had ncis/ncisla while nikita has none. also, nikita hasnt gone above 0.6 this season while Ringer, SC, Hart have and Nikita lost more than 60% of its audience between seasons one and two and during this season.

  • Pete

    TSC should definetly be on likely renewal given that it scored sic consecutive 0.7s in a row not too long ago. Having TVD as a lead in is irrelevant to how its performed this season aswell.

    Ringer, Nikita & HOD will be the ones that likely get cancelled.

  • Pete

    I meant six consecutive 0.7s not sic :)

  • Brandy

    Sid, also nikita dosent do well in dvr(0.7with dvr) whereas Hart gets 0.8_1.0 with dvr, Ringer 0.7 with dvr and Nikita dosent do well(Ringer either,) in w18_34 while gg& Hart get 1.0 or higher.

  • Justun121

    I think you should cancel the “certain” categories.

    The CW bubbles:

    Gossip Girl > Dixie > Nikita > Secret Circle.

  • Ram510

    I’m really confused about Cougar Town. Part of me feels like ABC can’t wait to cancel, I mean it’s finale isn’t even in sweeps. Then the other part feel that if it make financial sense it could be renewed and be the first in house comedy to make it to syndication in a long time.

    Happy Endings would take awhile extra season to get there since its first season was short.

    Too early to tell on Apt 23. But it’s would be in the same boat for syndication and it’s already dipped to 2.0 levels

  • The Big Toe

    @Ram510 The finale of Cougar Town airs on May 29. Check The Futon Critic if you don’t believe me.

  • DCC

    This is the first time I really watch shows from The CW. If they cancel Ringer, Nikita and The Secret Circle, I won’t see anything else made by them.

  • Ram510

    @ Brandy

    If you say a .4 is so “horrible” the. What does that make a .5? We’re seriously talking about a TENTH of a point. I wouldn’t be so sure to put any show on some .5 pedestal, it’s all bad

  • dref22

    I agree with The Mikle Factor, I won’t be surprised if CW cancel 4 shows. And I hope they do, it looks like First Cut has a 50% chance of getting picked, I need Jack Coleman back on my TV!

  • Justun121

    ABC programs 12 hours and they picked up 8 dramas.

    CW programs 10 hours so they can pick up 6 dramas.

  • Ram510

    @ The Big Toe

    Yes, and May sweeps ends May 23

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