Bubble Watch: The CW Will Cancel More Than 2 Shows, Will 'Nikita' Be One of Them?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 29th, 2012

 

This week’s changes are mostly the nitpicky, hair splitting variety between “likely” and “certain” that some readers are far more entertained by than I am.  But there will still be plenty of room to split hairs if you're so inclined.

With the Fringe renewal out of the way, I’ve upgraded both Alcatraz & The Finder to merely “likely” cancellation rather than certain cancellation. Despite this week’s lows for Touch against the NFL Draft (hey, Fan Excuse Bingo is open to all!) I think it’s still likely that it is picked up at least for a 13 episode second season.

Private Practice was upgraded to likely renewal.  In recent ratings there isn’t much separating GCB and Scandal from Revenge, but the former two shows are still on the bubble and the latter is still likely to be renewed. As expected, without a new episode of Modern Family as its lead-in, Don’t Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 fell over 20%, but it’s still likely to be renewed.

With the CW pack of shows tightening, I’ve upgraded Ringer from certain cancellation to likely cancellation and Hart Of Dixie from likely cancellation to “on the bubble.” If I were a Nikita fan I would certainly be worried, but as long as it’s a genre show airing on a Friday, even if it has only 2/3rds the ratings of Supernatural it will likely stay on the bubble the remainder of the season, but that’s not cause for celebration.

Based on ratings alone, The L.A. Complex debuted to “certain cancellation” but there’s plenty of room for hairsplitting & disclaiming and semantics. I’ve got it a “likely cancellation” with an asterisk and not because it’s only aired one episode. Before that episode even aired in the U.S. it was renewed for a 13 episode second season in Canada. It seems unlikely those episodes will air on the CW next season, at least during the normal September-May TV season, but we have no “sure to be canceled in the USA, but already renewed in Canada” designation.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

 

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

 

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
Best Friends Forever NBC Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
NYC 22 CBS Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
The L.A. Complex* CW Likely Cancellation
Ringer CW Likely Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Private Practice ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
Touch Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • ber

    @Robert,

    Thanks for answering me. But I will disagree with you again. I think Fridays shall not be disregarded for shows on Fox as far the goal is to reach syndication. Fringe was moved to Fridays in the middle of its third season – it had aired over 50 episodes already. Alcatraz and Touch will have aired 13 as of the end of the season, I don’t believe Fox will pay to sustain them on Fridays for that long… Of course, there is the option of moving Bones to Friday (or even Glee or a pair of comedies) but I think that is also very unlikely, especially because I don’t see what else they could put on Monday’s to anchor the night, now that they no longer have House…

  • Bunny

    @Ram510

    It makes no sense..I wonder if it’s like the Brothers & Sisters situation..Courtney Cox is the star of Cougar town and she must be expensive..

  • Justun121

    I wasn’t clear before.

    What the Fringe, Chuck, Dollouse and a lot of other shows’ renewals showed us that there is nothing *certain* in the TV business.

    Cancelled.
    Likely to be cancelled.
    On the bubble.
    Likely to be renewed.
    Renewed.

    Should do.

    Nothing is certain. Anything could happen.

    It’ll increase the accuracy of the index as well as the credibilty of TVBTN.

    That said, it’s so good to see The Good Wife renewed :D

  • Mark

    MONDAY:
    8pm – Arrow
    9pm – Hart of Dixie

    The CW is in no shape to be using its current shows as lead ins(except for TVD). A lot of their new shows are going to have to be self starters. Arrow seems like a hit waiting to happen. Leave Hart of Dixie in it’s current timeslot and let it grow.

    TUESDAY:
    8pm – Beauty and the Beast
    9pm – The Selection

    Revamp Tuesdays with two potential breakout hits.

    WEDNESDAY:
    8pm – 90210
    9pm – America’s Next Top Model

    Veteran’s night.

    THURSDAY:
    8pm – The Vampire Diaries
    9pm – The Carrie Diaries

    Theme night isn’t working on Thursday. They need a more light hearted show for TVD’s audience to watch after their mind has been blown by an great episode of TVD. The Carrie Diaries is perfect. And think of all the promotional oppurtunities with them both having “Diaries” in their titles.

    FRIDAY:
    8pm – The Secret Circle
    9pm – Supernatural

    Give TSC the Nikita treatment.

    MIDSEASON:
    Cult
    Gossip Girl (6-8 episode final season)

    SUMMER:
    First Cut

  • a p garcia

    I hope Nikita is renewed.

  • Sid

    “Sid, people critize nikita more than the freshman shows cause a0.4 no matter what night is terrible&Hart &SC havent hit 0.4s yet, nikita had a second chance and its failing majorly, nikita is paired with CWS second or third highest show(spn,) but it does much worse, Hart ties or outperforms its leadin while nikita failed to do so last year, plus of nikita, ringer, SC,Hart, Hart has lost the least amount of viewers over the season,plus competition comes in_Hart has Voice, Dancing, 2.5men and SC has Ai, Greys, PoI, BBT, Ringer had ncis/ncisla while nikita has none. also, nikita hasnt gone above 0.6 this season while Ringer, SC, Hart have and Nikita lost more than 60% of its audience between seasons one and two and during this season.”

    You said you’re 32 right? You really should consider taking a lesson in Grammar 101 because your writing is atrocious. Back to the discussion; I don’t need your statistics; trust me, I get enough of that from Mark Wood. You’re idea of a second chance is to prematurely put a freshman show on Fridays when it was trying to build an audience(granted it was no hit, but neither was it doing that bad either). In that case, lets put Hart of Dixie of Fridays next Season and give it a second chance and lets see how it will perform; how does that sound?

    And since when is Undercover Boss, The Finder, Shark Tank not competition? The highest rated shows on Fridays, which are on the highest rated network(Undercover Boss & Blue Bloods from CBS)barely manage a 1.8 with A18-49. This is from the network that has no problems with pulling a 3.5-4.0 on Mondays-Thursdays. Doesn’t that say anything to you? Or are you that dense to understand the term “graveyard Fridays”?!

    The truth of the matter is a 0.4(even on Fridays) is bad; I get that. But you’re acting as if a 0.5(Mon-Th) is that much better. It’s like comparing an orange to a tangerine; they’re not that far different. None and I mean none of these freshman dramas should be renewed over NIKITA. At one point, I was thinking it would be THE SECRET CIRCLE, but that show is barely hovering over 1 million viewers now just spells disaster for it “when” it’s moved to Fridays next season. They only show that should threaten NIKITA is GOSSIP GIRL at this point.

    “Sid, also nikita dosent do well in dvr(0.7with dvr) whereas Hart gets 0.8_1.0 with dvr, Ringer 0.7 with dvr and Nikita dosent do well(Ringer either,) in w18_34 while gg& Hart get 1.0 or higher.”

    When was the last time you’ve seen Hart of Dixie even make the DVR list? I haven’t seen it get a 0.8-1.1 since last year. And would you stop boasting about women demos. They’re not relevant to a shows renewal chances. How many times do I have to keep telling you that?!

  • Cody

    @DW
    2. SUPERNATURAL should be renewed because it is another show to stick on The CW’s Friday Night, and it is doing pretty decent (CW-standards) on Friday, but I don’t see it going pass Season 8, and Season 9 is possible and probably the final.

    What? You say S8 is the last then immediately say S9 is possible and probably the final? Makes no sense.

    Main contracts are up after S8 but I’m not sure that necessarily means it’s over….As long as the CW is around after next season I could see the show continuing. It’s what, the second highest rated show on the network? Cast isn’t as large as some of the other CW shows so the cost to make the show might not be that much more than some of the other shows. Dare I mention the ‘show that could’, OTH that had lower ratings than SPN but kept getting renewed every year until it was a mutual (show runner, main cast and network) to end it?

    CW likes to announce/advertise when shows are in their final season. I’d garner a safe bet that if it’s not announced as the final season at the upfronts and it remains one of the networks top shows it will go on.

  • suzie

    @Sid

    “And would you stop boasting about women demos. They’re not relevant to a shows renewal chances. How many times do I have to keep telling you that?!”

    Is that true? I though the CW’s goal was to appeal to women, I though that’s what there advertiser wanted??

    Is that wrong?

  • Sid
  • Sid

    Crap, I forgot that I can’t use more than two links in a post.

    Anyways:

    Hart of Dixie
    2/13/12
    18-49 L+SD (Rating) 18-49 L+7 (Rating)
    0.6 0.9

    2/27/12
    0.5 0.9

  • suzie

    thought not though

  • Sid

    “Is that true? I though the CW’s goal was to appeal to women, I though that’s what there advertiser wanted??

    Is that wrong?”

    If the main demo(A18-49) is not good, women demos are useless. As far as I’m concerned, they’re only good for a press release. A 0.9 or a 1.0 is nothing to brag about. GOSSIP GIRL used to get a 2.5-3.0 with women demos; now it’s lucky to see a 1.0

  • Michael

    With the recent news of Fringe being renewed by Fox, anything is possible at this point lol! This is rather irrelevant, but Ausiello changed Nikita’s status from “Could go either way” to “Safe Bet.”

  • suzie

    @Sid

    That’s because once upon a time GG was good, I loved season 1 and 2, but around season 3 it just went down hill and its just got worse and worse, its unwatchable now.

  • SmG

    This is at least the tenth time we are hearing about Tvline changing Nikita’s status, I think Ausiello may have changed it just for creating buzz for his own site :)

  • were123

    It’s really nice to see Fringe in the renewed section :D. Now I’m able to withstand any cancellation to come (although I would prefer all my shows to be renewed, obviously)
    Top 5 likely/certain cancellation I wish could be renewed:
    1_Awake
    2_Alcatraz
    3_Ringer
    4_Body of Proof
    5_Harry’s Law

  • Bunny

    @SmG

    True. According to Tvline Hart Of Dixie is also a “safe bet”

    LOL!

  • Bee

    i’m excited for the CW’s new shows. some interesting stuff going on. they need to let ringer and the secret circle go. those two have been promoted constantly and with flashy promos and started out with 1.0+s and have now dipped down to 0.4s and 0.5s. people aren’t interested.

    gossip girl should be gone, but it’ll be back thanks to some magical deal the producers made cus there’s never been a single report suggesting the show is in danger. it should get a final farewell mid-season season like OTH did.

    i don’t watch it anymore, but i like nikita and apparently it’s still a great show. but it’ll be in the 0.3-0.5 range all next season. still, i’d pick it over TSC for a renewal.

    if they’re gonna keep a new show, hart of dixie is the only deserving one. it should’ve been DOA, but was not + managed to hit a 0.9 in the fall once + has no lead-in support like ringer and TSC did, yet still does better or as good as them + is the only one with growth potential.

    what the CW really needs is good, interesting shows that their audience will return for. TSC, ringer, and HOD were not those shows.

  • Bee

    NBC is the parent version of the CW. the only reason it’s even on the map is cus of football. otherwise, it would be embarrasingly behind the other networks in terms of average. i just hope smash’s second season fixes out the flaws of the first.

    FOX had a really bad season too and are protected only by idol and the x-factor. aside from animation, they actually have no scripted shows that hit a 3.0 anymore. and only ones that even get 2.5 anymore i think are glee and new girl. wowza. none deserve a second season, but if they give one, it’ll go to touch obviously since it was lucky enough to get the idol lead-in.

    good luck to GCB tonight. it’s got the weakest 10PM show on ABC now ratings-wise. with PP getting a 2.2 and proving it’s not dead in the water from the move and scandal getting rave reviews from viewers, getting better every week in quality, and holding on to that 2.0 for the 4th damn week, i believe they’re pretty much set for renewal now. i would definitely renew GCB and give it a second shot this fall since it’s also gotten some love, but i’m not certain it’ll happen unless the show can pick up a bit.

  • SJ

    With the Fringe renewal out of the way, I’ve upgraded both Alcatraz & The Finder to merely “likely” cancellation rather than certain cancellation

    Shouldn’t it be the other way around? Now that Fringe has been renewed, does that not make it even less likely for the other two to be picked up? Fox is working with only 15 hours a week after all.

    While we’re splitting hairs, I would suggest that Body of Proof should be Likely Cancellation, Cougar Town Certain Cancellation, NBC’s Thursday comedies, SVU, Revenge, Suburgatory and Two and a Half Men certain renewal.

    Also, LA Complex shouldn’t even be on the list IMO as it’s already been renewed in Canada and its future doesn’t depend on how it does stateside.

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