Bubble Watch: The CW Will Cancel More Than 2 Shows, Will 'Nikita' Be One of Them?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 29th, 2012

 

This week’s changes are mostly the nitpicky, hair splitting variety between “likely” and “certain” that some readers are far more entertained by than I am.  But there will still be plenty of room to split hairs if you're so inclined.

With the Fringe renewal out of the way, I’ve upgraded both Alcatraz & The Finder to merely “likely” cancellation rather than certain cancellation. Despite this week’s lows for Touch against the NFL Draft (hey, Fan Excuse Bingo is open to all!) I think it’s still likely that it is picked up at least for a 13 episode second season.

Private Practice was upgraded to likely renewal.  In recent ratings there isn’t much separating GCB and Scandal from Revenge, but the former two shows are still on the bubble and the latter is still likely to be renewed. As expected, without a new episode of Modern Family as its lead-in, Don’t Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 fell over 20%, but it’s still likely to be renewed.

With the CW pack of shows tightening, I’ve upgraded Ringer from certain cancellation to likely cancellation and Hart Of Dixie from likely cancellation to “on the bubble.” If I were a Nikita fan I would certainly be worried, but as long as it’s a genre show airing on a Friday, even if it has only 2/3rds the ratings of Supernatural it will likely stay on the bubble the remainder of the season, but that’s not cause for celebration.

Based on ratings alone, The L.A. Complex debuted to “certain cancellation” but there’s plenty of room for hairsplitting & disclaiming and semantics. I’ve got it a “likely cancellation” with an asterisk and not because it’s only aired one episode. Before that episode even aired in the U.S. it was renewed for a 13 episode second season in Canada. It seems unlikely those episodes will air on the CW next season, at least during the normal September-May TV season, but we have no “sure to be canceled in the USA, but already renewed in Canada” designation.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

 

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

 

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
Best Friends Forever NBC Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
NYC 22 CBS Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
The L.A. Complex* CW Likely Cancellation
Ringer CW Likely Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Private Practice ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
Touch Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • ?

    This website is full of haters. I hope my show comes back for another season and i will be back and rub it all over your faces.

  • CC

    The CW keeps ignoring the other shows they have and just care about the vampire diaries, people soon will get tired of vampires and this show will go down the drain like many others. This season has been so boring and all they do is try to kill Klaus and they never succeed. CW has a couple of other shows that are worth watching, but they fail to promote them enough.

  • Ultima

    @disney rocks
    Off-topic, but it would be great if FOX aired 3.5 hours until 10:30.

    Not so great for FOX’s affiliates…

  • Oliver

    I suspect post-2016 the The CW will either turn into a cable network or shutdown entirely.

    Not quite sure what their affiliates will do because I can’t imagine anyone launching a profitable new broadcast network. It’s a bit of a long-shot, but perhaps Sony would be interested.

  • Ultima

    @Gus
    I don’t believe the CW will pick six new shows. If that happens then Ringer, Hart Of Dixie, Nikita, Gossip Girl, The Secret Circle, and 90210 would all go.

    What? The CW could pick up all six pilots while only cancelling four of those shows.

    I don’t think they will, although five pick-ups wouldn’t suprise me.

  • Rachel

    The CW will pick up 4 shows during the fall, 1 mid-season replacement and possibly 1 scripted series for the summer of 2013 since the president wants year round programming.

    I’m predicting The Carrie Diaries, Arrow, Beauty & The Beast and First Cut. Cult as a mid-season replacement and Shelter as a summer series.

    The reason I didn’t include The Selection is because I think it will be competing against B&tB for that slot behind TVD. And B&tB will win. I just can’t see the CW picking up all of these sci-fi and fantasy shows. There needs to be some diversity so they will go definitely go with medical drama First Cut. And with the success of OUAT I think B&tB has it. Call me crazy but I don’t think The Selection will be picked up.

    Shelter as a summer series makes sense because it’s the only pilot that takes place during the summer. Plus they’ve cast a bunch of no name faces so if it flops it’s not like they’re gonna lose a ton of money.

  • Stanley

    What does this geek know? The CW might keep Nikita and Ringer.

  • rob60990

    The CW will not premiere all 6 dramas in the fall. Most likely 4 in fall and 2 midseason. The problem they had this year was they had to give full seasons to all their freshman shows because they had nothing to replace them.

  • Derrick Rose

    All I know right now is Whitney is coming back in the fall on NBC and maybe Chelsea too.

  • Leeland

    The CW needs to think and make a total re-brand! It has been 6 years and still no good success other than THE VAMPIRE DIARIES. It’s sad when cable networks like ABC family is beating this network! The CW needs something new; a new image and a new ‘ feel ‘ . If The CW is trying to appeal younger audience these days, they need to be diverse about it and bring something to the table that the audience can relate to and give them something that is worth watching! I think The CW needs to be more creative with their promos and be more fun and welcoming to their viewers. They need to make watching tv fun! The CW needs to be more like MTV/ABC Family. I think they should open programming on the weekends too, because right now the network is DEAD and DULL.

    The CW’s “LAUGH OUT LOUD” Sunday: The CW needs a comedy block airing show’s
    They can use this slogan to promote the block: “TV TO LAUGH ABOUT ”

    7:00/6c AMERICA’s NEXT TOP MODEL (E)/NEW REALITY
    8:00/7c COMEDY
    8:30/7c COMEDY
    9:00/8c HART OF DIXIE/FIRST CUT

    The CW Monday
    8:00/7c GOSSIP GIRL “The Final Season” (The CW could promote a ‘Countdown to Goodbye’ tribute)/CULT
    9:00/8c 90210 (new night and time)

    The CW’s New Tuesday
    8:00/7c ARROW
    9:00/8c THE SELECTION

    The CW Wednesday
    8:00/7c THE CARRIE DIARIES
    9:00/8c AMERICA’s NEXT TOP MODEL/ SHELTER

    The CW Thursday
    8:00/7c THE VAMPIRE DIARIES
    9:00/8c BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

    The CW Friday
    8:00/7c THE SECRET CIRCLE
    9:00/8c SUPERNATURAL

    The CW Saturday
    8:00/7c A SKETCH COMEDY/MUSIC VIDEO
    9:00/8c A GAME SHOW/GAME REALITY

    The CW Would be more interesting! : )

    Don’t get me started on a midnight schedule haha

  • Leeland

    I ABSOLUTELY Loved the WB! and it’s promo’s EVERYTHING ABOUT THE WB I loved! HOW COME THE CW can’t feature things like the good ole WB network???

  • Beth Ann

    Hart Of Dixie, Nikita, Ringer & Whitney should all be cancelled. All trash. ABC, keep GCB and get rid of that Private Practice nonsense.

  • DW

    the numbers are not good for supernatural so to wrap things up they do give them 13 more. they could take out both supernatural and Nikita and toss vampire to fridays.

  • The End

    Robert or Bill, incase you missed, the user named ‘Dan’ aimed a personal attack at someone on page 7. I know you generally frown on such actions.

  • Kavyn

    Nikita’s ratings definitely warrant it to be one of the less successful shows on the CW, simply because of the fact that the CW is THE place for teen girls. Most CW viewers would rather invest themselves in Gossip Girl, 90210 and TVD than give new shows a chance, unless it shows potential.

    Whatdo you all think of this schedule:

    Mon
    8pm Gossip/ANTM
    9pm Carrie Diaries

    Tues
    8pm Arrow
    9pm Nikita(F)/Cult(R)*

    Wed
    8pm 90210
    9pm HOD

    Thurs
    8pm TVD
    9pm Selection

    Fri
    8pm TSC(F)/Cult(R)*
    9pm SPN

    Summer: First Cut and Shelter.

    *Next season, I say let Nikita and TSC truly duke it out. Give the shows halforders and the ol’ switcheroo with Nikita getting a suspected decent lead in and TSC in the deathslot, and which ever show does worse, replace it with Cult. We’ll see if TSC’s success is due to retention or if people genuinely care about the show.

    The above schedule is based on what the most likely choices are. I hate the idea of Carrie Diaries but it seems like it’s going to happen. Same deal with Selection. The summer picks are the ones that just seem the most likely based on their premises. I’d rather see First Cut on the lineup.

    (R) – Replacement if the show flops in Fall.

  • boonies

    I really don’t mean this to be nasty, but I have 300 channels and I honestly wouldn’t know where to find the CW. I mean it…what is it? Are these shows shown on independent stations or what? Obviously not many people watch it, but I’d like to know where to find it.

  • Oliver

    I agree a major rebrand/repositioning of The CW would be a good idea. They can’t be doing much worse than they already are.

    Yes, people say that about NBC… but NBC’s primetime flops still get twice the ratings of the average CW show.

  • One

    UPgrading Alcatraz and Finder? I would’ve thought that a drama slot on Fox’s sked getting taken would be yet another nail in the coffin…

  • Michael

    NBC and CW could consolidate all of their top rated shows into a single network. Should fill at least a two hour block. Maybe they can pool their money and rent out Fox Fridays next fall after Fringe is over. ;)

  • The Mike Factor

    @Kavyn
    First Cut is more likely for fall, none of their current pilots are considered for summer yet, and Shelter has all but died, according to Deadline.

    @Leeland
    With a bit of tweaking your schedule could be completely perfect. Also thanks for posting that vid, the WB truly came off as a fun channel. The CW doesn’t have the same feel, but I do like the TV To Talk About song.

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