Bubble Watch: The CW Will Cancel More Than 2 Shows, Will 'Nikita' Be One of Them?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 29th, 2012

 

This week’s changes are mostly the nitpicky, hair splitting variety between “likely” and “certain” that some readers are far more entertained by than I am.  But there will still be plenty of room to split hairs if you're so inclined.

With the Fringe renewal out of the way, I’ve upgraded both Alcatraz & The Finder to merely “likely” cancellation rather than certain cancellation. Despite this week’s lows for Touch against the NFL Draft (hey, Fan Excuse Bingo is open to all!) I think it’s still likely that it is picked up at least for a 13 episode second season.

Private Practice was upgraded to likely renewal.  In recent ratings there isn’t much separating GCB and Scandal from Revenge, but the former two shows are still on the bubble and the latter is still likely to be renewed. As expected, without a new episode of Modern Family as its lead-in, Don’t Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 fell over 20%, but it’s still likely to be renewed.

With the CW pack of shows tightening, I’ve upgraded Ringer from certain cancellation to likely cancellation and Hart Of Dixie from likely cancellation to “on the bubble.” If I were a Nikita fan I would certainly be worried, but as long as it’s a genre show airing on a Friday, even if it has only 2/3rds the ratings of Supernatural it will likely stay on the bubble the remainder of the season, but that’s not cause for celebration.

Based on ratings alone, The L.A. Complex debuted to “certain cancellation” but there’s plenty of room for hairsplitting & disclaiming and semantics. I’ve got it a “likely cancellation” with an asterisk and not because it’s only aired one episode. Before that episode even aired in the U.S. it was renewed for a 13 episode second season in Canada. It seems unlikely those episodes will air on the CW next season, at least during the normal September-May TV season, but we have no “sure to be canceled in the USA, but already renewed in Canada” designation.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

 

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

 

Show Network Status
Charlie's Angels ABC Canceled
Man Up ABC Canceled
Pan Am ABC Canceled
Work It ABC Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman CBS Canceled
Allen Gregory Fox Canceled
Breaking In Fox Canceled
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Fox Canceled
Terra Nova Fox Canceled
Best Friends Forever NBC Canceled
The Firm NBC Canceled
Free Agents NBC Canceled
Prime Suspect NBC Canceled
The Playboy Club NBC Canceled
Body Of Proof ABC Certain Cancellation
Missing ABC Certain Cancellation
The River ABC Certain Cancellation
A Gifted Man CBS Certain Cancellation
NYC 22 CBS Certain Cancellation
Awake NBC Certain Cancellation
Bent NBC Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law NBC Certain Cancellation
Unforgettable CBS Likely Cancellation
The L.A. Complex* CW Likely Cancellation
Ringer CW Likely Cancellation
Alcatraz Fox Likely Cancellation
The Finder Fox Likely Cancellation
Are You There, Chelsea? NBC Likely Cancellation
Cougar Town ABC On The Bubble
GCB ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: Miami CBS On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
Rob CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Gossip Girl CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Secret Circle CW On The Bubble
Bob's Burgers Fox On The Bubble
Napoleon Dynamite Fox On The Bubble
Up All Night NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Renewal
Happy Endings ABC Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing ABC Likely Renewal
Private Practice ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
90210 CW Likely Renewal
Supernatural CW Likely Renewal
Touch Fox Likely Renewal
30 Rock NBC Likely Renewal
Community NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parenthood NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Whitney NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
The Middle ABC Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
The Office NBC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
The Cleveland Show Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Fringe Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Smash NBC Renewed
Desperate Housewives ABC Final Season
One Tree Hill CW Final Season
House Fox Final Season
Chuck NBC Final Season
 
  • Oliver

    NBC and CW could consolidate all of their top rated shows into a single network.

    Only a single CW show beats any of NBC’s Sunday-Friday primetime schedule (TVD beats Awake/Rock Center/BFF).

    That’s just how badly The CW are doing: they’re getting destroyed by the network in a distant fourth place.

  • Rachel

    and Shelter has all but died

    Not true. The pilot hasn’t even been screened yet.

  • Petar

    @Oliver

    NBC is in bad shape too! Most of their shows are awful!

  • Leeland

    @ The Mike Factor

    Yeah, the CW needs to do SOMETHING lol or things will get very very bad ! The CW needs to be more warm, fun, hyped and inviting to its viewers. The TV to talk About campaign is okay, but not so much of an attention getter. At the CW, they need to be creative and air what people would love to see! I don’t know if people even know this network exist!

  • Petar

    @Rachel
    Shelter was name from zap2it best script(from all 2012 CW pilots) and if CW really put it in the summer as you suppose or even don’t pick up than we will know why are so bad network! And creator is OTH showrunner which show even in last season was in 3 best shows of this awful network!(which is not big 0.7 rating i think) I mean when show in 7th or 8th season(don’t know what season OTH was) is one of the best in that network than you know how bad network is this!

    ps Yep. Shelter filming finish last in friday! No way deadline know or watch the pilot! BTW most of the pilots this year are film late! CBS best hit sitcom(hope so) with martin lawrence still not ready!

  • Petar

    Yeah, the CW needs to do SOMETHING
    @Leeland
    May be if they air normal shows not only for teen girls with stuped script and bad writers will help them! If they are more serious and smart with good sense of humor will help too! But nah…. not gonna happen!

  • ChrisA

    Nikita needs to be RENEWED!!!!

    Nikita fans needs to watch the show live and buying the Blu-ray or DVD set of the 1st season. Best Buy and wbshop.com has the sets on SALE!!! as of right now.

  • pandorajinel(formerly Erin)

    Something that I just noticed tonight: WGN Chicago reairs CW episodes on Sundays. I only realized it at about 8:30 so I have no idea if it’s always been that way or if it’s new. Does anyone else know? Tonight it was The Secret Circle. Next week it’s LA Complex and something else (sorry, my memory is failing me).

  • Dahne

    @boonies – The CW makes claims at being a network show. Not all cities carry it but over 90% do. If you are interested in finding what channel the CW with your carrier, try going to tvguide.com. Click on What’s On and TV Listings. You can put in your TV provider and it will pop up what channels everything is on. Despite its reputation, the CW does have some excellent shows.

    @DW – The CW will never follow your plan. Do you really think they would do better by putting their best show on Friday and cancelling their second best show after 13 episodes? Any executive who went with this plan would be fired.

  • Leo

    Awake is a certain cancellation? What an incredible show!!! I hate it when this happens!!!

  • joel

    “Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” – The Finder

  • JakeSnake

    I don’t really get why Fringe getting renewed puts Finder and Alcatraz to likely rather than certain. If anything that’s just one more show to potentially bump either of those shows off the schedule. I mean perhaps you’re just figuring since they renewed Fringe with low ratings they might be willing to give those shows another chance as well, but Fringe got renewed for syndication sake. Renewing either of those shows wouldn’t put them anywhere near a common syndication number.

  • May

    It is absurd that the CW wanted to be with so many new shows! For what? Cancel the 1 ° or 2 ° year want to do with Nikita, Ringer and HOD? It should invest in shows that they already have. With Nikita they do not do any promotion. The solution to Nikita would go to another station. Seriously CW is a horror. If you cancel Nikita will not watch anything else on the CW. For what? Promote evil and cancel. No,thanks.

  • Belinda

    Revenge is a huge hit in Australia, and two of the stars are currently visiting here. Yesterday, one of the local papers reported that the show has been renewed for two more seasons. Now either the report is inaccurate or this story will break in the US media soon. We did find out about Brothers and Sisters first last year.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/entertainment/insider/revenge-star-joshua-bowmans-solo-voyage/story-e6frewt9-1226341615164

  • Ultima

    @pandorajinel
    Something that I just noticed tonight: WGN Chicago reairs CW episodes on Sundays. I only realized it at about 8:30 so I have no idea if it’s always been that way or if it’s new. Does anyone else know? Tonight it was The Secret Circle.

    WGN wasn’t reairing them; those were the intial airings of the shows that were preempted earlier in the week for sports.

  • toadytoady

    Robert has SVU as “likely renewal” where as Bob has it as “certain renewal”.
    Why the difference if you are both going by statistics?

    If NBC was going to renew Harrys Law wouldnt they have secured Kathy Bates by contract, as they have secured Mariska Hargitay already?

  • One @ toadytoady

    “Certain Renewal” = Absolutely zero chance of cancellation. If this happens, crow will be eaten.

    “Likely Renewal” = Slight danger of cancellation, but all major signs point to renewal.

  • Dan

    @TheEnd-“Robert or Bill, incase you missed, the user named ‘Dan’ aimed a personal attack at someone on page 7. I know you generally frown on such actions.”

    A.) Thanks for wasting your time to tell on me. Embarrassing. You’re very classy.
    B.) Sid attacked someone for their bad grammar and then used bad grammar himself. Anyone who does this should be called out for it.
    C.) Sid has previously “aimed a personal attack” at me on this board before.
    D.) I would hardly say that calling someone a douchebag is a personal attack, especially when it’s a true statement.
    And finally
    E.) A user before me basically said the same thing I did. How come he/she didn’t get a personal call out comment? I guess I’m just that special.

  • Dan

    Oh yeah. And
    F.) You’re a douchebag.

  • Doug

    Ladies, ladies… you’re BOTH douchebags.

    Anyway, interesting ratings for Private Practice. If it keeps this up for the rest of the season, it’ll end up (likely) with a 13 episode order for mid-season in the same timeslot. DWTS Results weakening to a 2.3 has to be a big concern for ABC, and with those numbers, it’s not inconceivable that it would be scraping a 2.0 this time next season. So it’s time for ABC to go with a different strategy on the night. Again, the problem is where to air DWTS Results, which is tricky, unless to go with a 30 minute edition at 8pm. Tuesday at 10pm goes to a new drama in the fall, with PP coming back when that fails (if it does). Things are looking up for ABC.

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