ABC: 'Scandal' Likely To Be Renewed
Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Charlie’s Angels *||canceled||0.48|
|Work It! *||canceled||0.61|
|Body Of Proof*||😳||0.66|
|Man Up *||canceled||0.66|
|Last Man Standing||0.90|
|Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23||1.04|
|Desperate Housewives||final season||1.04|
|Once Upon A Time||1.29|
After two years of what seemed like face saving renewals of marginally rated dramas (V, Body Of Proof), ABC finds itself in a completely different position this season with several rookie dramas with reasonably good ratings.
From Revenge which I have predicted as “certain to be renewed” for quite some time, now to Scandal, which after a string of 2.0 adults 18-49 ratings I am moving up to “likely to be renewed”, to GCB not far behind, but still a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation.
This is the last “regular” ABC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual “Oddsmakers” final predictions for the season.
Why is Cougar Town just a “toss up” with its dreadful ratings instead of “likely to be canceled” or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I’m keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a “toss up” because of potential syndication related benefits.
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.