ABC: 'Scandal' Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Missing :oops: 0.65
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.89
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.04
Desperate Housewives final season 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.01

-
After two years of what seemed like face saving renewals of marginally rated dramas (V, Body Of Proof), ABC finds itself in a completely different position this season with several rookie dramas with reasonably good ratings.

From Revenge which I have predicted as "certain to be renewed" for quite some time, now to Scandal, which after a string of 2.0 adults 18-49 ratings I am moving up to "likely to be renewed", to GCB not far behind, but still a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

This is the last "regular" ABC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Sid

    Go SCANDAL! :)

  • Esdru

    YAY for Revenge!

  • Avery

    2012-13 Schedule
    Sunday
    8:00 Once Upon a Time
    9:00 Beauty and the Beast
    10:00 GCB

    Monday
    8:00 DTWS
    10:00 Castle

    Tuesday
    8:00 Happy Endings
    8:30 Pairie Dogs
    9:00 Counter Culture
    9:30 Apt. 23
    10:00 DTWS Results Show

    Wednesday
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 Suburgatory
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 Last Man Standing
    10:00 Revenge

    Thursday
    8:00 Wipeout: Fall Edition
    9:00 Grey’s
    10:00 Scandal

    Friday
    8:00 Malibu Country
    8:30 Awesometown
    9:00 The Manzanis
    9:30 How to Live with Your Parents for the Rest of Your Life
    10:00 20/20

  • rob60990

    Predictions for next season: ABC moves Castle to Sundays at 10 and launches 3 new dramas Monday at 10, Thursday at 8, and Sunday at 9. They launch 4 new comedies: Wednesday at 9:30, Tuesday at 8 moving LMS to 8:30, and an hour on Fridays at 8. TGIF would likely not start until mid October.

  • rob60990

    @Avery, Counter Culture is not happening since Delta Burke hurt herself.

  • Chmarin

    Don’t know if you’ve seen it, but Deadline is reporting that ABC plans to renew Private Practice for a final, 13-episode season.

  • Chmarin

    Here’s what I would do:

    MON
    8 DWTS
    10 Castle

    TUE
    8 DWTS Results
    9 Happy Endings
    9.30 Prairie Dogs
    10 Don’t Trust The B**** in Apt.23
    10.30 American Judy

    WED
    8 The Middle
    8.30 How to Live With Your Parents For…
    9 Modern Family
    9.30 Suburgatory
    10 Revenge

    THU
    8 Nashville
    9 Grey’s Anatomy
    10 Private Practice (fall-final season)/Scandal

    FRI
    8 Last Man Standing
    8.30 The Manzanis
    9 Shark Tank
    10 20/20

    SUN
    8 Once Upon A Time
    9 Beauty and The Beast/Devious Maids
    10 666 Park Avenue

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Don’t know if you’ve seen it, but Deadline is reporting that ABC plans to renew Private Practice for a final, 13-episode season.”

    I’ve seen that report. And it’s exactly what I expected. We’ll post something once the deal is done.

  • Brian

    Renew OUAT, Revenge, Scandal, and GCB :)

  • Bunny

    If Happy Endings gets renewed I predict it will be a mid-season replacement and will only get 13 eps and thn cancelled by ABC

    the end.

  • Lexie

    I dont understand why Scandal is likely to be renewed if PP is only getting a 13 episode season. PP clearly has better ratings than the Rookie Scandal. PP should be renewed for a full season before Scandal. Scandal is surely going to drop in the ratings if it has another season like all shows do and it didn’t start off great with just a 2.0 for a new show-that’s pathetic to renew on.

  • KJ Styles

    @Bunny- How do you figure that when Happy Endings is the 2nd highest rated sitcom on ABC? Like the show or not, it will get a full season next year. Anyone thinking differently is a fool.

  • Peter Mazz

    SUNDAY:
    8:00 – Once Upon A Time
    9:00 – The Beauty And The Beast
    10:00 – Gotham

    MONDAY:
    8:00 – DWTS
    10:00 – Castle

    TUESDAY:
    8:00 – DWTS Results
    9:00 – Happy Endings
    9:30 – Apartment 23
    10:00 – How to Live With Your Parents
    10:30 – The Smarth One

    WEDNESDAY:
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – Last Man Standing
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – Suburgatory
    10:00 – Revenge

    THURSDAY:
    8:00 – Nashville
    9:00 – Devious Maids
    10:00 – Gilded Lylis

    FRIDAY:
    8:00 – Grey’s Anatomy
    9:00 – Private Practice/Penoza
    10:00 – Shark Tank

    SATURDAY:
    8:00 – Last Resort/Zero Hour
    9:00 – Americana/Scruples
    10:00 – 20/20

  • danny94

    KJ styles- Happy endings sank to a 1.6 without modern family and look at the table the middle is the second highest rated sitcom

  • Bunny

    @KJ Styles

    I LOVE Happy Endings but LOOK what happened to Cougar Town and that show is owned by ABC!! I do hope HE is renewed for a 3rd season and they go out with bang!

  • tvfreak

    @danny94: Precisely why HE should not stick around, it’s too lead-in dependent. Look at CT, it positively withered without MF to bolster its ratings.

  • Pinkle

    I don’t think DWTS results would work at 10. The already-declining ratings would go down even more because the main audience of DWTS is probably on their way to bed.

    In addition, would people please stop throwing random comedies together for the sake of having a comedy block. In order for a comedy block to be successful, the whole block must click together. Single cams and multi cams do not work together, so a show like The Middle (single-cam) and Last Man Standing (multi-cam) would not be paired together, though if they were filmed in the same format, they would compliment each other perfectly. This also includes pairing a young, hip show like Happy Endings with a family show like Last Man Standing or The Middle. This has already been a problem, see ABC Tuesdays from 8 to 9pm (Last Man Standing and Cougar Town – incompatible).

    ABC is going to have to decide if they want another hour of comedy and if they are going to put it on Tuesday or Friday. For Tuesday, ABC could launch a 2 hour young, hip comedy (Apartment 23, Happy Endings, etc.) block here to go head-to-head with FOX’s block that will probably be on Tuesday. The only thing is they have to consider Dancing With The Stars. There will be one hour of comedy here though, and I think that it will be Apartment 23 and Happy Endings (Sorry Cougar Town fans).

    For Friday, they can move Last Man Standing here and pick up 1 or 3 multi-cam family comedies. Some things to consider are: Will it work, and are we only going do 1 hour or 2 hours at the beginning? What happens to Shark Tank?

  • Scott M

    Certain renewal for Happy Endings is overstating their case. I’d give them a 75% of coming back. It’s still likely, but their run is very similar to Cougar Town’s last year and I don’t think ABC wants to get into a spot where they have to renew it again at the end of next season (for syndication purposes).

  • billy martins

    saturday
    8pm dancing with the stars (new day)
    10pm dancing with the stars results show( new day)
    SUNDAY
    7PM AMERICA’S FUNNIEST HOME VIDEO’S
    8PM THE MIDDLE(NEW DAY)
    8:30PMSUBURTORY(NEW DAY)
    9PM MODERN FAMILY(NEW DAY)
    9:30PMCOUGAR TOWN/APT 23 MIDSEASON(NEW DAY)
    10PM REVENGE(NEW DAY)
    MONDAY
    8PM LAST MAN STANDING(NEW DAY)
    8:30PM THE MANZIANS(NEW )
    9PM SHARK TANK(NEW DAY)
    10PM CASTLE
    TUESDAY
    8PM HAPPY ENDINGS(NEW DAY)
    8:30PM PRiARIE DOGS(NEW)
    9PM AMERICAN JUDY(NEW)
    930PMHOW TO LIVE WITH YOUR PARENTS FOR?(new)
    10PM SCANDEL (NEW DAY)
    WEDNESDAY
    8PM WHAT DO U THINK?
    9PM 20/20
    10PM DEVIOUS MAIDS
    THURSDAY
    8PM WIPEOUT
    9PM GREY’S ANATOMY
    10PM AMERICANA(NEW)
    FRIDAY
    8PM ONCE UPON A TIME(NEW TIME)
    9PM BEAUTY & THE BEAST(NEW)/GCB FOR (MIDSEASON NEW TIME & DAY)
    10PM NASHVILLE (NEW TIME)

  • tvfreak

    @Scott M: Who says they’d have to renew it?

    Oh wait, I forgot, The Good Wife Rule: If a show is only one season short of syndication, and a small but devoted fanbase follows it wherever it goes, it will get renewed at least long enough to get the requisite 88 episodes. Plus the inexplicable critical praise only helps its cause. :(

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