ABC: 'Scandal' Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Missing :oops: 0.65
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.89
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.04
Desperate Housewives final season 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.01

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After two years of what seemed like face saving renewals of marginally rated dramas (V, Body Of Proof), ABC finds itself in a completely different position this season with several rookie dramas with reasonably good ratings.

From Revenge which I have predicted as "certain to be renewed" for quite some time, now to Scandal, which after a string of 2.0 adults 18-49 ratings I am moving up to "likely to be renewed", to GCB not far behind, but still a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

This is the last "regular" ABC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Pinkle

    Happy Endings was consistently the highest rated comedy on ABC (outside of Modern Family, of course). The low ratings it had at the end of its season was a result of ABC’s idiotic scheduling, by putting new episodes of Happy Endings on a night where the 3 shows that air before it are repeats and the show after it either wasn’t on or a repeat.

    Happy Endings will more likely than not be back next season.

  • Bunny

    ABC should stick with family-oriented comedies only..
    Young,hip and and urban single-cam sitcoms will never work in that network as much as they try..

  • tvfreak

    Game time!

    CASTLE – 52
    THE MIDDLE – 45
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 30
    MODERN FAMILY – 40

  • Pinkle

    @tvfreak, I would like to have your permission to play, please.

  • J.G.

    How I think the comedy blocks will go:

    8:00pm-9:00pm Tuesdays
    8:00pm-10:00pm Wednesdays
    9:00pm-10:00pm Sundays (I don’t know why I feel like this’ll happen, but it certainly seems more likely than a full-blown TGIF or an 8pm Thursday block, which has failed many a time before)

  • funmilo

    Scandal is such a good show, it better get renewed!!!

  • Bee

    fingers crossed for GCB, scandal, and PP all being renewed.

    and i still wish ABC would move DWTS to sunday. whatever shows they air against those award shows and the grammys and all that are going to suffer. they either crash or they take a hit and don’t recover/recover super slowly. OUAT is a big new breakout hit and so it survived without much consequence. but that novelty will probably wear off by next spring. that kind of timeslot is only for reality, comedies, and procedurals since ABC cannot help themselves from airing during sweeps.

  • rob60990

    “Scandal is surely going to drop in the ratings if it has another season like all shows do”

    Some dramas grow in their 2nd seasons. Usually the aging ones go down season to season.

  • Avery

    @J.G.
    TGIF will happen, ABC wants more sitcoms.

  • rob60990

    oh The Middle is ahead of Happy Endings. I didn’t even notice it. That’s a show that can self-start. :D

  • tvfreak

    @Pinkie: Okay, but first the rules and requirements:

    Voting in the Elimination Game is conducted in +3, +2, -2 and -3 until only three shows are left, in which case it is +3 and -3 only. If a show makes it to 100 points it enters the Victor’s Village, where it stays until only one other show remains to join it in the Winners’ Circle, where both shows are reset to 10 points and votes are conducted in +1 and -1 until an Ultimate Winner is declared.

    Also, if I don’t recognize you as a regular user I will have to disqualify your vote unless you swear on your grave not to cheat (or if @Julia can verify that you don’t use sock puppets to post, but that’s only done on her own time), and if you answer a trivia question related to that network.

    Pinkie, your question is, which of the three Heck children on The Middle has a middle name that is literally the same as their first name?

  • JJF

    I think ABC needs to cut their losses with all of the midseason dramas. Scandal is obviously the strongest of the bunch, but GCB’s chances are weak. If ABC renews these shows, it really shows a lack of confidence in their Fall shows. Unlike the past few years, ABC doesn’t have to renew a midseason bubble drama to say that their season wasn’t a total wash in terms of dramas. (which has been the case recently)

  • Rebecca

    It’s too bad HE isn’t on NBC, if their format goes better with the other good NBC comedies (single cam, no laugh track). Still, I think HE will be back. @Bunny, keep hope alive! It’s 1.01 in the index and look at all those happy green smiley faces. GCB will probably be back too…it’s at .80 and someone told me last year that shows in the .80 range usually return (unless the rule was “.88″ or another number above .80 but still in the point-eights).

  • Pinkle

    @tvfreak, the answer is Sue.

  • tvfreak

    @Pinkie: Correct! You may now play the game.

  • Pinkle

    @tvfreak, just a few questions:

    1. Can I play the other network games too without having to “sign up” again?

    2. You can only vote once per 24 hours, but would I be able to vote on the ABC game, and say, the CBS game on the same day?

  • Liz

    @Peter Mazz

    FRIDAY:
    8:00 – Grey’s Anatomy
    9:00 – Private Practice/Penoza

    Say what?

  • Bunny

    @ Rebecca

    You’re so sweet,thanks!

    I think HE should be moved to a cable show..FX is the right network for them…similar tone in comedy..

  • Liz

    @billy martins

    saturday
    8pm dancing with the stars (new day)
    10pm dancing with the stars results show( new day)
    SUNDAY
    7PM AMERICA’S FUNNIEST HOME VIDEO’S
    8PM THE MIDDLE(NEW DAY)
    8:30PMSUBURTORY(NEW DAY)
    9PM MODERN FAMILY(NEW DAY)
    9:30PMCOUGAR TOWN/APT 23 MIDSEASON(NEW DAY)
    10PM REVENGE(NEW DAY)
    MONDAY
    8PM LAST MAN STANDING(NEW DAY)
    8:30PM THE MANZIANS(NEW )
    9PM SHARK TANK(NEW DAY)
    10PM CASTLE
    TUESDAY
    8PM HAPPY ENDINGS(NEW DAY)
    8:30PM PRiARIE DOGS(NEW)
    9PM AMERICAN JUDY(NEW)
    930PMHOW TO LIVE WITH YOUR PARENTS FOR?(new)
    10PM SCANDEL (NEW DAY)
    WEDNESDAY
    8PM WHAT DO U THINK?
    9PM 20/20
    10PM DEVIOUS MAIDS
    THURSDAY
    8PM WIPEOUT
    9PM GREY’S ANATOMY
    10PM AMERICANA(NEW)
    FRIDAY
    8PM ONCE UPON A TIME(NEW TIME)
    9PM BEAUTY & THE BEAST(NEW)/GCB FOR (MIDSEASON NEW TIME & DAY)
    10PM NASHVILLE (NEW TIME)

    *speechless*

  • tvfreak

    @Pinkle: Yes and yes.

    However, the CBS game is not yet up on this week’s thread; we have a rule about waiting until a full page of comments is posted and that hasn’t been done yet. The Fox and NBC games, however, are open for this week’s threads. There is no CW game due to popular demand that it go away from there.

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