ABC: 'Scandal' Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Missing :oops: 0.65
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.89
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.04
Desperate Housewives final season 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.01

-
After two years of what seemed like face saving renewals of marginally rated dramas (V, Body Of Proof), ABC finds itself in a completely different position this season with several rookie dramas with reasonably good ratings.

From Revenge which I have predicted as "certain to be renewed" for quite some time, now to Scandal, which after a string of 2.0 adults 18-49 ratings I am moving up to "likely to be renewed", to GCB not far behind, but still a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

This is the last "regular" ABC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • MJDB

    Possible 2012-13 Primetime Schedule:

    Sunday:

    7:00-America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8:00-Once Upon a Time
    9:00-New Drama
    10:00-GCB

    Monday:

    8:00-Dancing With the Stars (2 Seasons)/The Bachelor
    10:00-Castle

    Tuesday:

    8:00-Primetime: What Would You Do?
    9:00-Dancing With the Stars (2 Seasons)/Shark Tank
    10:00-Happy Endings
    10:30-Don’t Trust the B in Apartment 23

    Wednesday:

    8:00-The Middle
    8:30-Suburgatory
    9:00-Modern Family
    9:30-Cougar Town (Final Season)
    10:00-Revenge

    Thursday:

    8:00-New Drama
    9:00-Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00-Private Practice (Final Season)/Scandal

    Friday:

    8:00-New Comedy
    8:30-New Comedy
    9:00-Last Man Standing
    9:30-New Comedy
    10:00-20/20

    Saturday:

    8:00-Movie

  • Bee

    well devious maids basically got an unofficial pick-up. deadline says the show has started gathering staff.

  • tvfreak

    How’s this sked for a laugh?

    Monday – DWTS/Bachelor, Last Resort
    Tuesday -Only Fools and Horses, Dan Fogelman Project/HE if it flops, DWTS Results, Scandal/PP final season
    Wednesday – The Middle, Suburgatory, MF, Apt. 23, Revenge
    Thursday – Castle/Wipeout, GA, 666 Park Ave.
    Friday – LMS, Malibu Country, WWYD/Shark Tank, 20/20
    Sunday – OUAT, Gotham, Devious Maids

  • rob60990

    Monday
    8:00- DWTS
    10:00- Nashville (NEW DRAMA)

    Tuesday
    8:00- Malibu Country (NEW COMEDY)
    8:30- Last Man Standing (NEW TIME)
    9:00- DWTS Results
    10:00- Private Practice

    Wednesday
    8:00- The Middle
    8:30- Suburgatory
    9:00- Modern Family
    9:30- American Judy (NEW COMEDY)
    10:00- Revenge

    Thursday
    8:00- Devious Maids (NEW DRAMA)
    9:00- Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00- Scandal

    Friday
    8:00- How to Live with Parents (NEW COMEDY)
    8:30- The Smart One (NEW COMEDY)
    9:00- Shark Tank (NEW TIME)
    10:00- 20/20

    Sunday
    7:00- AFV
    8:00- Once Upon a Time
    9:00- 666 Park Avenue (NEW DRAMA)
    10:00- Castle (NEW NIGHT)

    Midseason: Apartment 23, Happy Endings, The Manzanis, Only Fools and Horses, Last Resort, Mistresses, Americana, Gilded Lilys.

    Cancelled: Everything not mentioned.

  • Justin121

    I don’t like fantasy schedules for one simple reason:

    No network does more than a few moves. That can be explained in one paragraph.

    The end.

  • chrisss

    I think if ABC picks up Gotham, a Sunday schedule of OUAT-Gotham-Castle would flow very well.

  • ber

    About the Castle move everyone seems to be defending (I have also defended it in the past), I wonder if ABC hasn’t found in Castle exactly what they wanted for the Monday post DWTS time slot: a drama that performs on average with ABC’s scripted shows when DWTS is on and that decreases, yet does not tank when DWTS is not on.

    Thing is, launching a new drama without a proper lead in for a significant portion of the year is tricky. Once Upon a Time did perfectly fine this year as a self starter, holding its own, but it’s a breakout hit and should not be the rule, but rather the exception. ABC hasn’t ordered what appears to be a straight procedural for next year’s pilot, so it appears they are trying to go for the serialized route, which is good I think, alhotugh requires more consistent in viewing, meaning that it is harders for viewers to come back after they leave for a while. As such, a rookie 10 pm drama would likely have a hard time in winter and quite possibly in spring as well after it has to endure the bachelor lead in weeks, which are quite weak and appeal to an audience different than the one to which DWTS appeals to.

    So I guess my point is: be careful with what you wish for. We may all think that Castle has a cushy spot that should not be “wasted” with a veteran show, but well, maybe reality is that we got it backwards and Castle is, in fact, holding is own in what it is a very tricky spot (just look at the way BOP tanked without the Results lead in!)

  • Bright

    ‘I hate people making fantasy schedules’, ‘I hate people who makes voting games’…

    @John A, I hate people who complains a lot. Should we ban you for that?

    If you don’t like those, don’t read them, as the rest of us might do. End of Story

  • kevin

    Scandal is destined to get renewed along with Happy Endings and Private Practice which may get closer towards a “final season” and forget to mention about GCB, the dramedy may also be getting closer for a second season. The River & Missing could be on the verge of cancellation.

  • Lexie

    Why are ABC and Shonda pushing Scandal? The ratings are not great like they make it seem. Scandals ratings are equivilant to the lowest rated Private Practice episodes of the season and this is PP’s fifth season. Scandal is doing bad in the first season already. Private Practice deserves a full season. Stop pushing Scandal at the expense of Private Practice or you will lose the loyal Private Practice viewers and Scandal will drop further in the ratings.

  • Tony

    lol @ the schedule that has Cougar Town’s final season behind Modern Family and Private Practice’s final season behind Grey’s Anatomy.

    and @Lexie because it has gotten a consistent 2.0 for all FOUR of it’s airings, and the buzz is only getting stronger, ABC would be stupid to try not to launch it again in the fall. GCB on the other hand a 1.8 on Sunday, even though it could grow next season, I think ABC should cancel show, with 3 new dramas a lock for next season, there is no reason to renew a show getting a 1.8 and can’t hold it’s own and doesn’t seem to have the buzz that Scandal has, ABC would be better off launching a new show. If at the most ABC hates all their pilots which is unlikely I could see it be a midseason replacement, but I doubt it will premiere in the fall.

  • Molly

    @Ber

    I agree!!! Some people seem to say that Castle is dependent on DWTS. That is evidenced to be true but only to a certain extent. I remember it didn’t go so well when they put the sitcom romantically challenged with alyssa milano on after DWTS(or bachelor i honestly can’t remember)–not the same retention.

    Lets compare this weeks drops:
    DWTS-2.8 and Castle-2.3.
    CBS: M&M 3.2 and H50 2.5
    NBC: voice-3.5 and smash-1.8

    I think it’s a competitive night, especially in the 10pm slot, i think ABC would be foolish to mess with something that is working, even with the declining DWTS ratings.

  • Nick

    CASTLE – 46 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 45 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 31 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 45 (+2)

    • “I helped Dad fix a flat tire last week. I’m no stranger to violence and cursing”
    -Eve, LMS episode 1.23, “The Spotlight”

    The compainers are right (for once), and these fantasy schedules are boring when they are repeated OVER AND OVER! (I post these, but only once in a while) So I’ve thought of something else: Here are my favorite ABC scripted shows in descending order (favorite to most hated):

    1. Modern Family
    2. The Middle
    3. LMS
    4. OUAT
    5. BOP
    6. Missing
    7. Suburgatory
    8. CougarTown
    9. Castle
    10. Revenge
    11. GCB
    12. DH
    13. Apt. 23
    14. GA
    15. PP (#13-15 are shows I haven’t seen, so it’s a tie)
    16. The River
    17. Scandal
    18. HE

  • Dan

    For once in 5 years ABC actually has some well rated dramas that they can renew so they dont say were not canceling everything. Veterans Castle and Grey’s Anatomy along with freshman Once Upon a Time and Revenge will be renewed. Scandal looks likely to be picked up and while GCB is 50/50 ABC is more likely to give it the Body of Proof & V treatment and renew it even though they don’t have to. ABC is mulling over a final Private Practice season which could work out like Boston Legal or not like how Brothers and SIsters ended up being axed but my guess is it will be back in the fall. Even with DH leaving ABC looks to be in good shape for fall.

    Comedy wise ABC has a lot. Veterans The Middle and Modern Family will be back and Happy Endings, Suburgatory, Last Man Standing and Apartment 23 are looking good to come back. That being said Cougar Town looks to be on its way out. Missing and The River are dead and Body of Proof wont be saved either.

  • tvfreak

    CASTLE – 49 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 43 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 28 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 47 (+2)

    Eliminated:
    18. The River (4-11, 8:28pm)
    17. Private Practice (4-11, 8:28pm)
    16. Grey’s Anatomy (4-12, 9:31am)
    15. Last Man Standing (4-12, 9:31am)
    14. Scandal (4-13, 5:47am)
    13. Missing (4-13, 5:47am)
    12. Happy Endings (4-13, 9:14am)
    11. Body Of Proof (4-14, 6:52pm)
    10. Cougar Town (4-15, 4:31pm)
    9. Suburgatory (4-16, 3:43pm)
    8. Apartment 23 (4-22, 10:03am)
    7. Revenge (4-22, 10:03am)
    6. GCB (4-22, 6:30pm)
    5. Desperate Housewives (4-27, 12:57pm)

    From Castle episode 4.22 “Undead Again” -
    Castle: When a life altering moment occurs, people remember.
    Beckett: Maybe it’s too big to deal with, maybe he can’t face it yet.

  • Teag

    I want The River renewed so badly.

  • Dahne

    I’ve just recently begun to watch Missing and it’s a shame more Nielsen families aren’t watching it. It has more action than any other show on TV, including Nikita, and the characters are relatable even if the situation is not. Generally I only watch Castle on ABC since I’ve dropped OUaT. Sad that it looks like I will only be watching Castle next year too.

  • Tessa

    Finally, Revenge with :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

    Too bad I’m kind of losing my passion for the show as it becomes more convoluted and soapish. :D

  • Doris

    I am also losing my passion for Revenge. My new favorite is Missing but it needs more exposure. ABC has put all it’s energies into pushing Scandal while slighting all these other shows. I predict it will backfire. Scandal can’t afford to lose steam since its rated a 2.0 at it’s highest. Not much of decent candidate for renewal.

  • Rebecca

    CASTLE – 51 (+2)
    THE MIDDLE – 46 (+3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 26 (-2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 44 (-3)

    ^They’re all winners in my book.
    Quote from Castle [4.22]:
    Ryan: I mean, he does look like a real zombie.
    Esposito: “A real zombie?” I’m embarrassed for you, bro.

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