ABC: 'Scandal' Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Missing :oops: 0.65
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.89
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.04
Desperate Housewives final season 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.01

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After two years of what seemed like face saving renewals of marginally rated dramas (V, Body Of Proof), ABC finds itself in a completely different position this season with several rookie dramas with reasonably good ratings.

From Revenge which I have predicted as "certain to be renewed" for quite some time, now to Scandal, which after a string of 2.0 adults 18-49 ratings I am moving up to "likely to be renewed", to GCB not far behind, but still a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

This is the last "regular" ABC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Mark

    @John121

    My fantasy schedule has barely any changes. Just new shows in failed shows spots. But I do agree that some fantasy schedules are laughable. Way too many big dumb changes.

  • Roco

    @ Adam and Rob, stop being such a hater, ABC has been treating PP badly before Scandel even premiered.

  • Doug

    I’m beginning to believe that GCB won’t make it, which is a shame. ABC should have scheduled it at 9pm from the get-go, and moved DH back to 10pm. It also may be a bit too campy for viewer’s tastes – it’s a very highly stylized show. Enjoyable, but expendable on an already extremely busy Sunday night.

    Again, I don’t believe for a second ABC will go with sitcoms on Friday. Too expensive for so little upside. The biggest question on ABC is if they will tweak DWTS’s schedule, and what they will do with Tuesdays come mid-season. The rest is fairly written in stone.

    As for Scandal and PP, the answer is simple: Scandal is new and has the potential to grow, whereas PP doesn’t. As well, after the 5th season, networks must renegotiate contracts with actors and show runners, which typically means higher licensing fees, sometimes substantially higher. For a marginally rated show like PP, that means that it’s not worth keeping around, which is why Scandal gets the green light over it because it’s still cheap.

    That’s why you see many just-okay rated shows not survive beyond that syndication mark.

  • Randy

    Please let Last Man Standing be on another year! That show is very funny, and it goes back to the old days – the family type of sitcoms – Now, you can most of them on Disney Channel instead of regular tv. However, I think it needs other shows like it instead of Cougar Town, and the River after it. You go from a family show Last Man Standing to a more adult toned show of Cougar Town.

  • SJ

    @Doug

    The PP vs. Scandal situation is a double-edged sword. On one hand, a first-season show that is doing worse than a 5th-year show should be dead in the water. On the other hand, it has the potential to grow. A 5th-year show that only does marginally will likely continue to fall, but is also a more reliable performer that likely won’t crash and burn suddenly, which is still a risk with freshman shows without an established fan base.

    Private Practice should be a lock for a final season. Scandal and GCB are still both toss-ups for me. Keep in mind that Scandal hasn’t managed to outdo a single Private Practice episode that aired on Thursdays at 10. And that PP is now doing about the same as Scandal, while having a lower-rated lead-in.

    Sitcoms on Friday are likely happening. It’s a low-cost, low-risk, 13-week experiment. ABC wants to have scripted presence on Fridays, now that all four of the other networks have it too. Besides, I don’t think Shark Tank can run for a whole season. It was pushed back this season because of Mark Cuban’s schedule. And WWYD only does well until it doesn’t (1.1 for last Friday’s episode).

  • rony

    I hope that Missing comes back or at least, she finds her son.

  • Avery

    @SJ
    Thank you, TGIF will most likely be coming back this fall!

  • Daniel

    Renew The River, Missing and GCB

  • Greg

    I don’t understand why Private Practice is getting only a 13-episode renewal. I would go with a full 22-episode season, the show’s been performing very solidly on tuesdays and ABC’s been struggling with that slot for a few years.

  • PJM

    If Private Practice is getting a 13-ep wrap-up, they can use the Grey’s slot to run its episodes, which helps the viewers who are big fans of both shows. (are there any of those?)

    Anyway, with NBC’s Thursday comedy block withering, ABC can take over the night with comedy, assuming of course that CBS isn’t thinking this way as well. But CBS can’t gain any momentum off of Big Bang Theory’s huge numbers, so I’d imagine BBT’s 7th season will move to Mondays to take over HIMYM’s slot after that show finishes.

    As for Scandal vs. Private Practice, it comes down to one thing: $$$. Scandal is the cheaper show. Their entire cast combined probably gets paid less than Kate Walsh.

  • rocky

    NOOOOO. i LOVE “Missing”

  • Brian

    Schedule 2012-13

    Sunday:
    8pm: Once Upon A Time
    9pm: Devious Maids
    10pm: 666 Park Avenue

    Monday:
    8pm: Castle
    9pm: Body Of Proof

    Tuesday:
    8pm: Last Man Standing
    8.30pm: New Comedy
    9pm: Happy Endings

    Wednesday:
    8pm: Modern Family
    8.30pm: New Comedy
    9.00pm: Suburgatory
    10pm: Revenge

    Thursday:
    8pm: Grey’s Anatomy (final season)
    9pm: Private Practice (final season)
    10pm: Scandal

    Friday:
    8pm: The Middle
    9pm: Beauty and The Beast

    Saturday:
    8pm: Dancing With The Stars
    10pm: DWTS Results

    Damn, it sucks so badly seeing DH go. The ABC Sunday will struggle with out it. At least looking at creative aspects.. That’s why I’d love to see Devious Maids and 666 Park Avenue on that day. At least some kind of parts of DH are left then (Cherry/Longoria, Williams).

  • Walter

    Deadline is reporting that PP is getting a final season next year, but considering that their ratings post for network channels has been off by several points for the past two weeks, I’m not sure that their information is accurate.

  • Danielle

    Fantasy schedulers:

    I don’t understand how ABC is expected to air a DWTS results show immediately following the performance show. The results show would air on the East Coast before the Pacific time zone has even seen the performance show. Unless you’re talking results from the previous week, which, if I recall correctly, would require a change in the show’s format.

  • Brian

    Q

  • Ultima

    @Brian
    Saturday:
    8pm: Dancing With The Stars
    10pm: DWTS Results

    Was the goal of posting your schedule to be ridiculed because you lack self-esteem and need your opinion of yourself validated?

  • Ultima

    @Greg
    I don’t understand why Private Practice is getting only a 13-episode renewal. I would go with a full 22-episode season

    The Deadline article said that it was coming back for at least 13 episodes, so it could have a longer season.

    There are numerous reasons why ABC would only give it a shortened season. The biggest being that they can’t get the cast to commit to more than a partial season or that due to the quality of their drama pilots, they want to make room for another premiere during the spring.

  • Nick

    CASTLE – 48 (-3)
    THE MIDDLE – 44 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 29 (+3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 46 (+2)

    “Don’t be silly. You can’t drive a tank on the street. It doesn’t have a turn signal!”
    -Mike, LMS episode 3.24 “Found Money”

  • Em J

    As long as Castle is renewed I am happy with what ever happens! ABC! WHY HAS IT YET TO BE RENEWED!?

  • tvfreak

    CASTLE – 51 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 46 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 26 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 44 (-2)

    Wow, total opposite of Nick, LOL :)

    And I am late today, so I am going to dispense with the usual record-keeping and snappy quotes. Also I won’t vote tomorrow, so I can vote an an earlier time starting on Friday.

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