ABC: 'Scandal' Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 1st, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Pan Am* canceled 0.42
Charlie's Angels * canceled 0.48
Work It! * canceled 0.61
Cougar Town :| :| :| 0.65
Missing :oops: 0.65
Body Of Proof* :oops: 0.66
Man Up * canceled 0.66
The River* :oops: 0.66
GCB :| :| :| 0.80
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.83
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.89
Last Man Standing :) :) :) :) 0.90
Private Practice :) :) :) :) 0.93
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Happy Endings :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :) :) :) :) 1.04
Desperate Housewives final season 1.04
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.01

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After two years of what seemed like face saving renewals of marginally rated dramas (V, Body Of Proof), ABC finds itself in a completely different position this season with several rookie dramas with reasonably good ratings.

From Revenge which I have predicted as "certain to be renewed" for quite some time, now to Scandal, which after a string of 2.0 adults 18-49 ratings I am moving up to "likely to be renewed", to GCB not far behind, but still a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

This is the last "regular" ABC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did ABC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • USAmerica1st

    Good show, “Scandal”. I was worried that they started with too high a scandal, but there are enough scandals out there in the world to model their episodes on to keep Olivia Pope and her crew in business for decades.

  • karen

    Keep Scandal on, love that show

  • Ultima

    @Nick
    20/20/ Body of Proof

    20/20 has aired in the 10pm Friday timeslot for years and pulls good numbers there. Why would ABC replace it with one of their lowest rated dramas?

    Dwts/Bachelor/ Duets

    DWTS is still the 4th, 5th and 6th highest rated hours on ABC. Why would they cut it at all, much less for a show that hasn’t even premiered yet? If Duets does well this summer and they want to move it into the regular season, using it as between-DWTS cycles filler on Tuesdays is far more likely.

  • Ultima

    @J
    Every time they produce a good show they just cancel it before it has a chance. I LOVE LOVE LOVE MISSING and like Body of Proof and they are canceling both of them

    Missing was picked up and will air all ten of its episodes. Body of Proof was picked up, then renewed and will air 29 episodes. In the TV industry, that is getting a chance. Shows have to perform, or they get canceled.

    I just don’t understand. Do they care what people want to watch ??

    No, they care about what people actually watch. People are watching The Middle and Suburgatory, they are not watching Body of Proof and Missing.

    I think we’ve had enough reality TV to dumb down America. I mean can we please have only a small portion of the shows fall in to the reality category.

    No. It’s very rare that more than one network has been able to sustain a nearly full lineup of scripted programming. The other networks have had to rely on newsmagazines, movie nights, game shows and reality programming to fill in their schedules for decades.

  • Rebecca

    CASTLE – 70 (+3) Season Finale tonight!
    THE MIDDLE – 37 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 23 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 37 (-3)

    quote from CT [2.3]
    Andy: Ooh, Girl, you just got served! Or is it owned?
    Laurie: Owned is when you dominate someone over a long period of time. Served is a swift take-down often marked by a dance celebration.
    Andy: Oh, and, uh, what’s a Snookie?

  • Nick

    CASTLE – 67 (-3) Season Finale tonight!
    THE MIDDLE – 35 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 26 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 39 (+2)

  • Rebecca

    @Nick
    You meant +3 for OUAT but that’s fine because you did actually give 3 points to it anyway. ;-)

    Castle tonight is going to be goooooooood!

  • Aaron

    Sunday:
    7:00 – America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time
    9:00 – Happy Endings
    9:30 – New comedy
    10:00 – GCB

    Monday:
    8:00 – Dancing With the Stars / The Bachelor
    10:00 – Castle

    Tuesday:
    8:00 – Dancing With the Stars: Results / New drama
    9:00 – New comedy
    9:30 – Last Man Standing
    10:00 – New drama

    Wednesday:
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – Suburgatory
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23
    10:00 – Revenge

    Thursday:
    8:00 – Private Practice (fall) / New drama (winter)
    9:00 – Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 – Scandal

    Friday:
    8:00 – Body of Proof / Primetime
    9:00 – Shark Tank
    10:00 – 20/20

  • mashoo

    NO, COUGAR TOWN!!!! It should be renewed for at least a 13 episode final season.

  • tvfreak

    CASTLE – 70 (+3) Season Finale tonight!
    THE MIDDLE – 37 (+2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 23 (-3)
    MODERN FAMILY – 37 (-2)

    From Lost episode 3.20 “The Man Behind The Curtain” –
    Ben: We’re here. You’ll want to turn off your flashlight, John.
    Locke: Why?
    Ben: Jacob feels the same way about technology as you do.

  • HotLatino4GayMarriage

    CASTLE – 73 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 34 (-3)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 25 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 35 (-2)

  • Riff Rafferty

    No, they care about what people actually watch. People are watching The Middle and Suburgatory, they are not watching Body of Proof

    Are you dumb? “Body of Proof’s” last 2 episodes of the season were watched by 10 million people. More people watched the season finale than watched the season premiere. More people watched the season finale than watched ANY episode of “Suburgatory.”

  • Riff Rafferty

    How in the world do the executives on TV make their decisions. Every time they produce a good show they just cancel it before it has a chance. I LOVE LOVE LOVE MISSING and like Body of Proof and they are canceling both of them

    “Body of Proof” ain’t done yet. Keep the faith. I will say that ABC REALLY underestimated the fanbase of that show. All the while putting on their little moron programs with skanky slu+s acting like screeching idiots, pathetic cash-ins on “Taken” and “Paranormal Activity”, whatever television void “Work It” was supposed to fill, it was the Dana Delany show they took for granted that inspired the greatest passion from all corners of the globe.

  • Chris Brannigan

    I can’t see them moving the DWTS Results show to 10pm, thats waaay too late for a live show like that with a family audience, I’d think it’s more likely to move to 8pm and have a 9pm-11pm two hour comedy slot and then your 9pm comedy show gets a hUUUGE lead in.

    I’m glad Apt 23 is likely to be renewed, the first episode was kind of lame but the latest one was hilarious – James Van Der Beak is absolutely hilarious in the show.

  • Ultima

    @Riff Rafferty
    Are you dumb? “Body of Proof’s” last 2 episodes of the season were watched by 10 million people. More people watched the season finale than watched the season premiere. More people watched the season finale than watched ANY episode of “Suburgatory.”

    People being adults 18-49. You post here often enough that you should know that by now.

  • Rebecca

    CASTLE – 76 (+3)
    THE MIDDLE – 32 (-2)
    ONCE UPON A TIME – 27 (+2)
    MODERN FAMILY – 32 (-3)

    quote from The Middle [3.21] – this HH laughs at how the spouses bicker, lol:
    Mike: Frankie, we’re not getting a new bed. We just got a new dishwasher.
    Frankie: Oh, you’re right. We should only get one new thing every 20 years.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    Hey, Rebecca.

    I was not aware of the “naming convention” for Cougar Town episodes. This isn’t the first time it’s been done, though. (In fact, ABC has aired eight seasons of Desperate Housewives, each titled after a line in a Stephen Sondheim song. Widely considered the best lyricist in the history of the English language, this is a nice tribute.)

  • Rebecca

    @TerryJacksonNYC
    Yeah, I didn’t know CT episodes all had titles of Tom Petty songs until I got them on DVD. Clever. I didn’t know that about DH either, that’s pretty cool.
    ———
    Okay, for anyone playing the elimination game, it is now closed on this thread. It has continued on page 3 of the new ABC thread posted today.

  • Teena Shiben

    I LOOOOOOVE SCANDAL. I LOVE IT! I REALLY LOVE SCANDAL! DID I SAY HOW MUCH I LOVE IT? WELL, I LOVE SCANDAL… REALLY LOVE IT… REALLY!

  • marie

    LOVE LOVE Scandal and Revenge!! My two favorite!!

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